r/neoliberal • u/Currymvp2 unflaired • Apr 13 '24

Iran begins attack, launching dozens of drones that'll take hours to arrive News (Middle East)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-begins-attack-on-israel-launching-dozens-of-drones-thatll-take-hours-to-arrive/
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532

u/AAPLShareholder George Soros Apr 13 '24

Friendly reminder that the Iranian government is a terrorist organization

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

If I was Israel, I wouldn't have bombed an Iranian embassy with a senior general forcing a response from them.

Inb4 "Israel has a right to defend itself against terrorist states and entities planning on attacking Israel"

There is a difference between defence and escalation. I mean, if it was such a bright idea, explain why the U.S. was against the move.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

Daily rocket attacks from Iran's proxies is defense, lol. We are reaching new lows.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

That has been ongoing since Oct 8 (if you mean Hezbollah). And Israel has been constantly bombing Southern Lebanon (with forays into Baalbak). What changed that made it so pertinent that the Iranian embassy in Syria was a good target to attack? Even if something changed, you attack the proxy, not the embassy. It is clearly escalatory to do such a thing.

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u/BritishBedouin David Ricardo Apr 13 '24

Israel has been officially at war with Syria since 1948. The Iranian consulate building in Syria was a military installation used to coordinate the movements and attacks of Hezbollah, Hamas and other militant groups who have attacked Israel in recent months. 

In my view it was a perfectly legitimate military target. 

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Israel has been officially at war with Syria since 1948.

They have had a truce in place. This is a ridiculous excuse. By that logic, North Korea attacking South Korea is fine.

The Iranian consulate building in Syria was a military installation used to coordinate the movements and attacks of Hezbollah, Hamas and other militant groups who have attacked Israel in recent months.

Give me a break. You act like Iran is some sort of villainous puppet master controlling every movement of every proxy and this consulate was a critical point.

No, proxies by their nature are not controlled centrally, especially not Hamas. Hamas operates much more independently than people think. Iran supplies them because they are a group that will attack Israel, but that doesn't give them control over Hamas.

The closest thing to that is Lebanese Hezbollah, and, as I have explained in other comments in this thread, there was no material change on the ground between Oct 8 and the date of attack on the consulate/embassy/whatever the hell you want to call it. And if Hezbollah was the threat, you attack Hezbollah, and Israel has already been doing that.

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u/BritishBedouin David Ricardo Apr 13 '24

😂😂😂😂😂😂

Sweet summer child. Without Iran none of these groups - Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd - would have even a modicum of power. All of these groups venerate Qassem Soleimani. He setup the Quds Force in a way that effectively coordinates these groups with everything from arms, financing, training, and yes, operations.

You are a FOOL if you think these groups primarily operate independently of Iran. Do you think the Houthis have the access or the know how to operate their drones without direct Iranian support???

The consulate was a legit military target given Hamas leaders, Hezbollah leaders and Quds force leaders met there.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Sweet summer child.

Alright, not gonna engage with you anymore.

Without Iran none of these groups - Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Hashd - would have even a modicum of power.

Ah yes, because the Arab-Israeli conflict started in 1979.

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u/BritishBedouin David Ricardo Apr 13 '24

By 1979 Israel had made peace with its neighbours bar Syria, which was the first country in the region to recognise the Islamist regime.

These groups are Shia Islamist groups backed by Iran and armed by Iran. Ps: Iran aren’t Arab.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Hamas is Salafi and started as an offshoot from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Oh and the PLO was still around for the record. Keep in mind, Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 chasing after the PLO.

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u/BritishBedouin David Ricardo Apr 13 '24

Iran don’t back the PLO.

Hamas pays lip service to Qutbism, but for all intents and purposes its leadership are effectively Shia. They called Soleimani the martyr of Jerusalem despite what he did to Sunnis in Iraq and Syria. Unsure how that’s meant to be compatible with any Sunni creed.

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u/thelonghand brown Apr 13 '24

Embassies being off limits is one of the tenets of the international rules based order. The only other embassy attacks that come to mind were all carried out by literal terrorist groups. Even during the Cold War neither us nor Russia bombed each other’s embassies like that.

We sure as shit wouldn’t let Ukraine do that to any Russian embassies…

This was an unprecedented move but Israel clearly doesn’t give a fuck about international law at this point. Hopefully they can shoot down all these drones and missiles and America should help with that but if any do get through and strike Israel we need to pray Biden can prevent Israel from further lashing out and starting a wide scale war.

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u/tcvvh Apr 13 '24

The only other embassy attacks that come to mind were all carried out by literal terrorist groups.

Really now?

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u/thelonghand brown Apr 14 '24

That was a terrorist attack lol

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u/spaniel_rage Adam Smith Apr 13 '24

Iran has been attacking Israel via proxies for decades now. At what point are they allowed to retaliate?

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Israel has been attacking those proxies for decades and has attacked Iran previously before. This attack however was not like the others.

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u/spaniel_rage Adam Smith Apr 13 '24

October 7 was not like the others.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Iran wasn't behind Oct 7. And no, they didn't command (or even have knowledge) of Hamas' plans.

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u/spaniel_rage Adam Smith Apr 13 '24

The IRGC funds, trains and arms Hamas and Hezbollah. Neither of those proxies would be threatening Israel without Iranian influence. October 7 would have absolutely been impossible without Iranian training and intelligence, and the idea that no one in the IRGC knew about the operation beggars belief.

Israel has a right to defend itself beyond milquetoast protests about "escalation".

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u/Augustus-- Apr 13 '24

The IRGC funds, trains and arms Hamas and Hezbollah

The US Army funds, trains, arms Ukraine. So it's ok for Russia to attack America?

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u/spaniel_rage Adam Smith Apr 13 '24

You're fairly confused if you think that's an apt analogy.

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u/tcvvh Apr 13 '24

There are reasons to believe a lot of the training and planning for Oct 7 was supplied by Iran...

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 14 '24

Reasons like vibes? Iran literally was mad at Hamas for Oct 7.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

If I was Israel, I wouldn't have bombed an Iranian embassy with a senior general forcing a response from them.

Nope. You help plan a terrorist attack and are attending a meeting to plan more you are a valid target.

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u/Augustus-- Apr 13 '24

The contras were terrorists. If Nicaragua had assassinated US military in Central America, you'd have no problem with it?

How about the CIA assets helping.the mujahedeen, Russia murders them in Pakistan,. that's all cool?

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

Yeah that is a legitimate risk of running covert operations in foreign countries. Especially ones of dubious legality and morality like aiding the contras or hezbollah.

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u/angry-mustache NATO Apr 13 '24

Because the Biden administration are cowards whose only response to hostile provocation is to say "thank you sir may I have another"

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Starting a regional war is not good.

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u/p00bix Is this a calzone? Apr 13 '24

who's starting it?

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

That isn't a meaningful question. Because saying "Israel started it" is wrong but it did lead to further escalations but saying Iran started it as of now is missing context and it might (hopefully) not escalate to a full-on hot war.

Like think about the Size Day War. Who started it?

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u/angry-mustache NATO Apr 13 '24

Iran started it by ordering their proxies to attack Israel.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Iran did not order the Oct 7 attack. They were taken aback by it and had no foreknowledge of the event. This has been widely reported. In fact, there has been reports of tension between Hamas and IRGC because of the attack with Iran telling Hamas that Hezbollah will not provide a significant relief to them.

Iran only has a close leash on some Iraqi proxies and Lebanese Hezbollah. Hamas is quite independent (with the Houthis in Yemen actually being the most). The skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israel has been ongoing since literally Oct 8. What changed so suddenly with the border skirmishes with Hezbollah that justified attacking the Iranian embassy in Syria? Even then, you don't attack Iran directly, you would attack Hezbollah in Lebanon. It was tremendously escalatory for no reason.

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u/angry-mustache NATO Apr 13 '24

Hamas wasn't the only group that attacked Israel, Iran also has a leash on the Houthis.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Hamas wasn't the only group that attacked Israel

If you mean Hezbollah, I already literally addressed that.

Iran also has a leash on the Houthis.

It is very loose. Iran has a tighter grip on Hamas than the Houthis. The main reason the Houthis attack Israel is because it makes them more popular, not because Iran said to attack them.

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u/Augustus-- Apr 13 '24

You are absolutely wrong if you think Iran has "a leash" on the houthis. They are independently calling their own shots.

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u/angry-mustache NATO Apr 13 '24

Iran is providing critical ISR for the Houthis for their anti ship missile targeting, without which the Houthis would be shooting blind.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

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u/p00bix Is this a calzone? Apr 13 '24

Rule I: Civility
Refrain from name-calling, hostility and behaviour that otherwise derails the quality of the conversation.

If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.

2

u/p00bix Is this a calzone? Apr 13 '24

Rule I: Civility
Refrain from name-calling, hostility and behaviour that otherwise derails the quality of the conversation.

If you have any questions about this removal, please contact the mods.

18

u/p00bix Is this a calzone? Apr 13 '24

If Israel does nothing while Iran funnels money and weapons to genocidal groups hellbent on Israel's destruction, that just encourages Iran to continue doing that. Iran has long pursued an undeclared war with Israel, and as they escalated that war considerably in recent months, it became strategically and morally necessary for Israel to fire back. Hence the strike in Syria which killed 2 Iranian generals. That strike was defense.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

You don't solve a proxy war by instigating a hot war. If that was the solution, it would have solved a lot of wars during the Cold War.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

You don't solve a proxy war by instigating a hot war.

Unless you are recommending that Israel start arming radical secularists in Iran they didn't have many other options.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24 edited Apr 13 '24

they didn't have many other options

Uh, yes they did.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

How would you recommend they deter Iran?

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u/Titty_Slicer_5000 Apr 13 '24

It’s better than the alternative, which is to let countries like Iran do whatever the fuck they want for fear of starting a war. Deterrence only works when your enemy believes you will respond with force.

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u/MBA1988123 Apr 13 '24

Creating consequences for Iran funding Hamas is a better option than creating another CF in Gaza imo. At least they’re going after the source. 

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Do you think that if this situation blows out into a whole war, that it will be beneficial for anyone? It isn't like you bomb Iran and mission accomplished. Have we learned nothing from Iraq?

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

Do you think that if this situation blows out into a whole war, that it will be beneficial for anyone?

The Saudis, and Jordanians will probably think it's a nice development actually.

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u/barktreep Immanuel Kant Apr 13 '24

Jordan does not want another war. They had to take in millions of Iraqi refugees already. 

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

A war between Iran and Israel is likely to be limited to an air campaign. Israelis aren't fleeing to Jordan as refugees and Iranians wouldn't cross Iraq just to stop in Jordan.

That is not a major concern.

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u/barktreep Immanuel Kant Apr 13 '24

Jordan is trying to shoot down the drones so they’re clearly not too happy about it. 

Long term, if this destabilizes Iraq, there could absolutely be refugees in Jordan, Iraqi or Iranian. 

I hope you’re right of course and it’s just some fireworks. 

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

I didn't say they were happy the war was happening. I said Jordan wouldn't mind watching Iran get taken down a peg.

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u/barktreep Immanuel Kant Apr 13 '24

Sure, but nothing is ever that clean. I dont think anyone should want more instability in the Middle East. 

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

The middle east is already unstable and Iran is the largest driver of that currently. Letting them freely sponsor instability in the region has been a failure.

Iran is the one who pushed the Levant to it's current state. Letting them suffer the backlash of those actions in the hope they change course is hardly some fringe suggestion.

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u/UnskilledScout Cancel All Monopolies Apr 13 '24

Why Jordan?

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

Jordan wants deescalation in the region and given that Iran is the largest driver of Levantine instability right now there are large chunks of their government that would likely appreciate Iran getting slapped.

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u/semsr NATO Apr 13 '24

That assumes escalation will lead to deescalation.

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u/[deleted] Apr 13 '24

Praying Mantis stopped the deployment of mines in the Persian gulf.

Prosperity Guardian has... not achieved much.

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u/semsr NATO Apr 13 '24

Yeah, don’t half-ass the occupation. Do the Surge from the outset. (I’m kidding, I think)