Iran begins attack, launching dozens of drones that'll take hours to arrive

[u/Currymvp2]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-begins-attack-on-israel-launching-dozens-of-drones-thatll-take-hours-to-arrive/

[u/[deleted]]

A war between Iran and Israel is likely to be limited to an air campaign. Israelis aren't fleeing to Jordan as refugees and Iranians wouldn't cross Iraq just to stop in Jordan.

That is not a major concern.

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

Jordan is trying to shoot down the drones so they’re clearly not too happy about it. 

Long term, if this destabilizes Iraq, there could absolutely be refugees in Jordan, Iraqi or Iranian. 

I hope you’re right of course and it’s just some fireworks. 

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

I didn't say they were happy the war was happening. I said Jordan wouldn't mind watching Iran get taken down a peg.

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

Sure, but nothing is ever that clean. I dont think anyone should want more instability in the Middle East. 

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

The middle east is already unstable and Iran is the largest driver of that currently. Letting them freely sponsor instability in the region has been a failure.

Iran is the one who pushed the Levant to it's current state. Letting them suffer the backlash of those actions in the hope they change course is hardly some fringe suggestion.

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

Iran is just filling the power vacuum left by Israeli aggression and American incompetence. Iran did not invent Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon.  They also didn’t invade Iraq. But they definitely benefited from all this. 

Point is, attacking Iran would not address any of these other issues that they are leveraging to expand their influence. If Iran isn’t doing it, someone else will, until we address the underlying issues. 

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

Iran has been a destabilizing presence in the middle east since the Iran-Iraq war ended. They were working to destabilize the Levant when Israel was ruled by a left-leaning coalition that was generally seeking peace.

You can't blame their behavior on the US and the Jews.

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

The further back you go in history the more it becomes America’s fault. I’m just talking about the last 25 years. 

Starting your analysis after the Iran Iraq war is a tad convenient given the whole thing about the US arming Iraq and enabling a war that killed over a million people.

We could of course go further back and talk about how US involvement led to the Ayatollah in the first place. 

Not sure how instructive all this is beyond further illustrating the point that war is almost always the worst possible way to resolve conflicts and foreign intervention almost always has unintended negative consequences. 

Which is why I, and likely the King of Jordan, don’t want to see yet another war in the Middle East, even if we don’t particularly like one of, or all, the parties involved.  

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

Actually the further back in history the more it becomes the fault of the British and the French. Before that it is the fault of the Ottomans. Prior to them it's the fault of the Mongols and before them it's the fault of the Abbasids. The fact that you think the US is the primary driver of modern middle east instability shows your recency bias and how shallow your understanding of the situation is.

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

That’s not what recency bias is. You were the one who started going further back in time to avoid discussing contemporary issues. I just kept going to illustrate that it has no value, which you seemed to both agree with but also criticize. 

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

LMFAO "Going back in time?"

To October?

[u/barktreep → u/[deleted]]

To the Iran Iraq war. 

It shouldn’t be controversial that things that happened more recently are more directly connected to what’s happening today. I track the modern day position of Iran to the Lebanon Israel wars since the second intifada, the Syrian civil war, and the Iraq war. Events that happened before that are important context maybe, but only to the extent that they led up to the events I listed. 

[u/[deleted] → u/barktreep]

Iran isn't trying to exterminate Jews because they want revenge for Mossadegh (whom the Ayotollahs hate anyway after he betrayed them in 1951 after one of their minions assisnated his predecessor on his behalf so he could become PM) they are trying to exterminate Jews because their leadership is furiously and viciously antisemitic.

Their is literally nothing that Israelis could do short of mass suicide that would appease the Iranian government and stop them from trying to destabilize the region. The only reason they weren't trying to destroy Israel prior to the late 80s was because they were preoccupied fighting Saddam Hussein and before that they were not yet in power.