r/wallstreetbets • u/SeveralAsparagus213 • 21d ago

This is why the market is crashing Meme

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7.9k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

Decreased rate cuts, meaning higher than expected interest rates due to looming inflation problems. Yes, we will be on a sideways trend the upcoming months.

33

u/InformalTooth5 20d ago

Worst case, we might be in a stagflation economy. Slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices..

49

u/SeliciousSedicious Poop Sock 2024 20d ago

We are not in a stagflation economy…

Inflation is barely hot, unemployment isn’t all that high rn, GDP growing at a normal rate for 2024 and projected to be solid for 2025.

Furthest from stagflation my fucking god you idiots love that fucking buzz word. Absolute fucking ritards.

34

u/Integralds 20d ago

Unemployment is 4% and inflation is 2.5%

Some of you: Is ThIs StaGFlaTioN?

1

u/InformalTooth5 20d ago

I like your confidence but you are trusting incomplete data and therefore could be wrong.

GDP There is a data collection lag with GDP figures. Recent figures are estimates relying on partial or preliminary data. Famously, the great recession began in Dec 2007 but the GPD data showed growth for that period for years. Eventually, more complete data revealed negative growth and those GDP figures were revised down.

Now, add in the record high household debt, credit card debt, and delinquencies in car repayments and student debt. Lots of the "growth" we are currently seeing is fueled by debt.

Unemployment Looking only at the jobs totals, the figures look solid. However, we know that underemployment is growing with the creation of more part-time jobs. The underemployed take multiple jobs to try to make up for the loss of income e.g. Uber driving after work. This trend makes the job stats look better because there are now two jobs in the data for Jane Doe where previously there was one.

We also know that the biggest source of job growth in this data is coming from the Government. A sector that the incoming Government is looking at cutting. The private sector should show solid growth in a healthy economy but outside of healthcare we are not seeing that.

Inflation The Fed recently showed they are worried about inflation.

So it's possible we have an economy of slowing or flat growth, with increasing underemployment and maybe unemployment too (with Govt sector cuts), high debt, and somehow also inflation (despite all those factors have a deflationary effect).

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u/SeliciousSedicious Poop Sock 2024 20d ago

We have Q1-3. Unless 4 is a massive big dick miss GDP growth currently is not supportive of stagflation.

Using underemployment is putting your thumb on the scale bigly and changing the definition of stagflation.

Fed is worried about inflation but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s currently at 2.7%.

Translation: we are not currently in stagflation by a long shot you god damned mother fucking ritarded piece of shit.

1

u/InformalTooth5 20d ago

We have Q1-3. Unless 4 is a massive big dick miss GDP growth currently is not supportive of stagflation.

Yes. Which is why - as I said - stagflation would require that the current GDP data to be revised down. Something that is possible.

Using underemployment is putting your thumb on the scale bigly and changing the definition of stagflation.

No. Underemployment and unemployment has the same effect on the economy, loss of productivity. It's just a matter of degrees.

Fed is worried about inflation but that doesn’t change the fact that it’s currently at 2.7%.

The fact it is currently at 2.7% is irrelevant. The point is that inflation could increase. The increase is required for stagflation.

Translation: we are not currently in stagflation by a long shot you god damned mother fucking ritarded piece of shit.

Translation: As I originally said. Worst case is we have stagflation. As in, it's possible but it would be the worst case scenario i.e. the current conclusions on the preliminary data we have would need to be inaccurate.

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u/SeliciousSedicious Poop Sock 2024 20d ago

Lmao wtf. You think a whole YEAR is going to be revised down that far? Yeah you’re smoking some good shit there bud. If that happens we’d have questions about whether or not this year’s numbers weren’t just off but arbitrarily pumped up by some shadowy actor. Just not gonna happen man.

Underemployment definitely doesn’t impact it in nearly the same way as full unemployment does.

And yes ritard. It being just 2.7% is absolutely relevant. Just because it doesn’t agree with your smooth brain stagflation fantasies doesn’t mean it’s not relevant.

4

u/InformalTooth5 20d ago

Anyway brother, peace ✌️

1

u/niceee_guyyy 20d ago

This is wsb, Sunday Church gathering place for regards. Actual datas don’t matter, its about feels

20

u/ROBOT_KK 20d ago

Might be? Lol, Elmo is in charge from now on.

3

u/Rachel_from_Jita 20d ago

I'm googling sideways treadmill manufacturers to invest in but having no luck.

1

u/MaxwellPillMill 16d ago

Looming? You mean the ones we are going to finally admit are real now that the new administration is coming in?