Surely you guys didn’t legitimately think that a worldwide financial crisis was going to be triggered by unemployment ticking up 2/10ths of one percent, did you? If so, well I guess that’s why you’re here. Isn’t it?
Did you all forget 2008? 2008 was not kicked off because of a tiny increase in unemployment.
It really was the five-hit combo of: still not cutting rates, weak job report, Intel's layoffs, Buffett selling his Apple shares last quarter, and Nikkei attempting seppuku.
We haven't gotten to the point of huge sell orders across multiple dotcom companies, Lehman Brothers dissolving, a global pandemic shutting down office work, etc. Recessions tend to have a very obvious trigger that acts as the needle that pops the bubble.
I thought Nikkei maybe could be it, but I guess not.
We're not out of the woods yet, but I'm not surprised that we're bouncing back in the absence of more catastrophic financial news.
Mass defaults on mortgages that then forced banks that had leveraged themselves on perceived mortgages assets that had no actual value since no one was paying the mortgage which then bankrupted the banks when their margin was called
Banks were handing out $1M mortgages to part time dog walkers, tied all those loans together with a bow, and then Moody rated the loan packages AAA.
It was great! Everyone was making shit tons of money. But then some fucking nerd asked if that was sustainable and ruined the snow parties for everyone.
This is true. I got into a house that way, worked and saved every nickle I made, used the money I saved to buy myself out of the second mortgage, used the "equity" as leverage to roll all of it into a solid 30 year fixed, P&I and everyone I knew told me what a stupid ass I was for paying principle and a 6% interest rate.
Fast forward less than a year, all those assholes are moving out "their house" because their upside down on the place they've been paying interest only on for the last three years.
2/10ths of a percent in one month is a big fucking number and a sudden change from previous months. We also had a few really bad earnings calls and the Nikkei.
Also, it's been a while but I seem to recall 2008 having a massive one day loss followed by a massive one day gain before things really started to tumble.
There are plenty of cases where things like this happen without any longterm consequences but to me this seems like there are recession indicators in other countries and a lot of that is starting to trickle up to the US markets.
Go look at graphs of unemployment and what happens once it starts trending upward. Every time. That is the idea behind the Sahm Rule. This would buck a trend that preceded every recession.
No just WW3 via a proxy war ( Iran / Israel ) about to pop off any minute now, riots and uprisings around the world, political unrest, rigged elections, and ATHs in the stock market. Surely there’s no downside in the immediate future bc everything is golden 😂
Keep waffling Gay Bear...But maybe give us some legitimate Reasons. Because everything you said is as old as my Nana.
And btw we have already multiple raging War's going. A War between Israel and Iran wont knock the Market Out. Keep Dreaming about WW's and the Worlds End 🌈 🐻
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u/Guinness Aug 06 '24
Surely you guys didn’t legitimately think that a worldwide financial crisis was going to be triggered by unemployment ticking up 2/10ths of one percent, did you? If so, well I guess that’s why you’re here. Isn’t it?
Did you all forget 2008? 2008 was not kicked off because of a tiny increase in unemployment.