r/neoliberal • u/BastianMobile NATO • Nov 17 '24

Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving 'to other ventures and opportunities' News (US)

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/
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u/Goldenboy451 NATO Nov 17 '24

Yeah I don't think it was at all unwarranted to think that she was on to something with her poll that other outlets had missed given her track record. Being off by 17 points is an astonishing break in form.

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u/KillerZaWarudo Nov 17 '24

Not to mention, after that polls Trump team even show his own internal that he was up by 5. Which was still be Selzer biggest miss and a Harris win. I feel like even Trump own team didn't expect them to win so comfortably

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u/PleaseGreaseTheL World Bank Nov 17 '24

They didn't. If you were watching early election day coverage, trump was interviewed (well, approached in public during the casting of his own ballot) and even he himself seemed not too sure or confident how the election was gonna go, and said something relating to how it couls go euther way if I remember correctly. Nobody thought it was gonna be an evisceration.

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u/DoTheThing_Again Nov 17 '24

In what world was this an evisceration? The election was close. Just like everyone other one where obama was not on the ballot

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u/PleaseGreaseTheL World Bank Nov 17 '24

My brother in christ if you don't think this was a horrible election you haven't paid attention, in many states this was nothing near close and we lost ground in ways we never thought possible; we lost the popular vote for, what, the second time this century so far? And had a worse electoral college defeat than in 2016, which we had won the popular vote in. GOP has a trifecta now as well.

This was a horrible election.

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u/DoTheThing_Again Nov 17 '24

“A horrible election” i agree with bc trump won. In no way was this an evisceration. The dems on average have won by larger margins in the current millennium.

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u/Khiva Nov 18 '24

I think the evisceration narrative set in because counting hadn't finished and word spread that she was down by 15 million. And you know how people never follow up or wait for data to inform their take. Bernie was sprinting towards a mic like he was waiting for a starting gun to fire.

That plus Trump winning the popular at all certainly does feel like a gut punch.

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u/FriendsSuggestReddit Nov 17 '24

150 million votes and Harris lost by less than 3 million.

It was much closer than you’re framing it to be.

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u/CarpeDiemMaybe Esther Duflo Nov 17 '24

Was it that close? I thought it was a landslide

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u/ManicMarine Karl Popper Nov 17 '24

Trump won the PV by 1.5% and the tipping point state by a little over 2%. That's quite close by historical & international standards, it's just that our concept of close elections is all messed up because we have had so many ultra close ones recently (2000, 2016, 2020).

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u/eliminate1337 Nov 17 '24

'I don't like the result' doesn't mean it was a landslide. 312-226 and less than 2% popular vote margin are very normal numbers for an American presidential election. Obama won in 2012 by more.

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u/[deleted] Nov 17 '24

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u/WOKE_AI_GOD NATO Nov 17 '24

We weren't that far from winning the electoral vote. They don't care about the popular vote, I don't see why I should.