r/neoliberal • u/BastianMobile NATO • Nov 17 '24

Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving 'to other ventures and opportunities' News (US)

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/
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479

u/TheChinchilla914 Nov 17 '24

>Be a reputable pollster for decades

>absolutely shit the entire bed in 2024

>refuse to elaborate

>leave

116

u/HealthyPromise1441 Nov 17 '24

Normalize messing up then vanishing without explanation.

27

u/Goddamnpassword John von Neumann Nov 17 '24

https://preview.redd.it/0ixbgoyg6i1e1.jpeg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b539b67e8232aa00b2658bcad79f92fca72ec46

3

u/blu13god Nov 18 '24

When the world needed him the most, he vanished

3

u/The_Magic WTO Nov 18 '24

He was sent to the future to battle Aku.

37

u/incredibleamadeuscho Nov 17 '24

she did elaborate in this post

22

u/Khiva Nov 17 '24

Not really. She re-stated that she'd already planned to leave but didn't give much a breakdown on how that last poll was such a wild miss.

18

u/incredibleamadeuscho Nov 17 '24

her methodology is clear every time she polls. it didnt change. it’s an outlier poll.

11

u/buyeverything Ben Bernanke Nov 17 '24

I’m going to start referring to my major fuckups as outliers.

1

u/incredibleamadeuscho Nov 17 '24

If you are in the polling industry, you are more than welcome to

27

u/gnivriboy Trans Pride Nov 17 '24

She did the same thing she did in previous years. She got it really wrong. Now she doesn't feel like doing this passion project anymore.

All this makes sense to me.

10

u/TheChinchilla914 Nov 17 '24

I think had a good pre-Trump cohort and/or sampling methodology that just aged out and broke over time

I don’t think she’s a lucky idiot like some said but I do question publishing such a prima facie outlier without explaining more how you got there

10

u/UnfairCrab960 Nov 17 '24

She used to publish outliers all the time and be proven right. This one was just way off

6

u/gnivriboy Trans Pride Nov 17 '24

but I do question publishing such a prima facie outlier without explaining more how you got there

Did you not watch any interviews with her? She reminded people she is just doing the same thing she always did. There is no secret sauce and it is public to everyone. They are welcome to do the same thing.

3

u/namey-name-name NASA Nov 17 '24

Tbf if Trump did that after he shat the bed in 2020 we’d be in a much better timeline rn