The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine

[u/RabidGuillotine]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impending-betrayal-ukraine

[u/Jigsawsupport]

I have never read worse dreck in my life.

"the fundamental problem has been the failure of Europe to commit to the defeat of Putin’s invasion."

A statement that is so wrong it is insulting,.

Less budgetary support than the EU, less tanks provided than Denmark, just how many fixed wing aircraft has the US provided?

0

And yet the US sits on endless mountains of military might, a lot of which is quietly rusting away never to be used, what it does send is comically overvalued. Europe can not send weapons it does not have, nor manufacture weapons from factories that are not built.

Europe as a hole has done its best propping up the Ukrainian state, and looking after its people that have had to flee.

At the same time some European nations have literally shown incredible courage, and stood up to Russia regardless of the terribly real risk, since most have no nuclear deterrent to deter the worst, and if the worst does happen a Nuclear strike on Riga or Warsaw or Berlin may well be a step on the escalation ladder. And they only have the word of the second morally bankrupt in a row US administration, to shelter behind that NATO actually means something.

And we can ask Zelensky what the word of a US president means.

If there is a security failure here its because the US public keep voting in a literal fascist movement or the hopeless, the geriatric or the spineless.

[u/galliaestpacata → u/Jigsawsupport]

This should have been Europe’s war to manage. In spite of decades of discussion about European defence, it proved too convenient to rely on US largesse. This made Europe a prisoner of US electoral factors. It also caused Europe to shirk the difficult decisions that helping win the war entailed: the big increases in defence expenditure, the 24-hour working in ammunition factories, the hikes in food and energy costs and the political risks such as seizing frozen assets.

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/galliaestpacata]

Yes this is crap.

Firstly this is because Its not the lack of equipment that is the fundamental issue, its European nations lack of strategic deterrent.

There is this weird view among "Atlantacists" that all Europe's security issues will be solved as long as they buy another 200 F35s, which to be fare is their job since a lot of them are defence industry lobbyists, it wouldn't mater if they had bought another 4oo the issue is nuclear.

Secondly why are we pretending that it is more sensible for the Germans to have to speed build factories, rather than the US send what it already has piled up rusting away?

[u/king_of_prussia33 → u/Jigsawsupport]

Both France and the UK are nuclear powers. Even if they weren't, I don't think anyone is saying that Europe should act without US support. I think we can all agree that the US has not done enough. The Biden administration wrung its hands over escalation, only to deliver the weapons Ukraine asked for after the real window of opportunity had closed. Biden did just enough not to completely let down Ukraine, but I would not describe his policy as brave or decisive enough. Of course, the biggest reason for the lack of support was the Russian assets in Congress.

However, unlike Europe, the US has the excuse of having its attention divided. The US was dragged back into the Middle East after October 7th and has been refocusing its military for confrontation with China in the Pacific.

Ukraine is a European problem and Europe's only problem. European countries have not committed as much to reflect that.

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/king_of_prussia33]

"Both France and the UK are nuclear powers. "

Indeed and both have done rather a lot, to the point of stripping their active army units to supply Ukraine. Furthermore the Baltic states and others have done an enormous amount without such protection

" I think we can all agree that the US has not done enough. The Biden administration wrung its hands over escalation, only to deliver the weapons Ukraine asked for after the real window of opportunity had closed. "

No this is propaganda, no such window has closed the US goverment could start meaningfully reinforcing the UAF tomorrow if it so choose. The UAF in many ways is in better shape than its Russian counterpart, its hardly on the edge of defeat.

It simply needs supplies, they have whole brigades that fight as light formations while American M1s and bradleys sit and rust.

If the conflict is coming to a close on these terrible terms than that is the administrations choice, they are choosing this.

"However, unlike Europe, the US has the excuse of having its attention divided. The US was dragged back into the Middle East after October 7th and has been refocusing its military for confrontation with China in the Pacific."

Which one of those theatres requires vast amount of armoured vehicles?

"Ukraine is a European problem and Europe's only problem. European countries have not committed as much to reflect that."

We will have to remember that when China takes on the 7th fleet for Taiwan.

After all that sounds like an American problem.

[u/Nautalax → u/Jigsawsupport]

 We will have to remember that when China takes on the 7th fleet for Taiwan.

 After all that sounds like an American problem.

We already know the EU has no interest in helping us with that