r/moderatepolitics • u/200-inch-cock unburdened by what has been • 25d ago

Trump Team Weighs Options, Including Airstrikes, to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program News Article

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-plan-nuclear-weapons-def26f1d

167 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

139

I have to assume Israel is drawing up similar plans.

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u/Flatbush_Zombie 25d ago

These are Israel's plans. Trump will do their bidding. So much for avoiding World War 3.

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u/Sabertooth767 Neoclassical Liberal 25d ago

Ah yes, WW3. US and allies versus Iran and.... Shi'ite militias?

Iran has no friends. A war against Iran would have no impact on the lives of most Americans. Park a Carrier Strike Group in the Gulf and let 'er rip, we win.

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u/karim12100 Hank Hill Democrat 25d ago

Iran has publicly said that if they’re attacked, they will in turn launch attacks on the Saudi oil infrastructure and basically wreck the global economy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-strike-saudi-oil-sites-in-revenge-for-israeli-attack-2024-10

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u/RevolutionaryBug7588 25d ago

Of course that’s what they’re going to say because they have to say something.

On the other hand, I believe that Iran is a bit smarter than that. Similar to how they use Hamas and the people of Palestine to create empathy, they’d be going against that if they decided to destroy the Saudi fields.

This would only turn the majority of the Middle East, and other countries that rely on Saudis oil production, against them.

But…. If you consider this option playing out, it won’t necessarily matter because Trump only has this term. What could potentially happen if a dem is elected next term, is they’d find a way to drop billions in the lap of Iran, so they continue doing Iran shit.

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u/karim12100 Hank Hill Democrat 25d ago

I think their calculus will be that the majority of the world and the Middle East is already against them and their only trump card at the moment is going nuclear which will basically make them North Korea but with an export that the world desperately needs. Losing that will basically end their ability to influence the region.

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u/obtoby1 25d ago

The problem with attacking Saudi oil is that everyone uses it. Sure, America might get insulted, but any county with ties to Saudi oil will retaliate like how the coalition did during the Gulf war. Iran would be the New Iraq

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u/MikeyMike01 24d ago

This is as believable as North Korean threats to nuke California.

All they’d be doing is giving the nation with the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 7th largest air forces in the world the green light to begin bombing. It’s a suicidal move.

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u/Right-Baseball-888 25d ago

Iran has no friends? What?

One of Iran’s closest allies is Russia. They’ve been sending Russia drones to use against Ukraine for MONTHS

And while not on the same level as Russia, China has been getting friendlier and friendlier with Iran within the past few years. Iran’s weakened but it’s not alone.

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u/cathbadh 25d ago

One of Iran’s closest allies is Russia

The country that just abandoned an ally because they were incapable of supporting them, losing their most important naval base, and cutting themselves off from the flow of natural resources from Africa?

They’ve been sending Russia drones to use against Ukraine for MONTHS

Russia has been arming Syria and Iran for decades, and Russian manufactured weapons have been found with Hizballah, HAMAS, and the Houthis.

And while not on the same level as Russia, China has been getting friendlier and friendlier with Iran within the past few years. Iran’s weakened but it’s not alone.

China currently doesn't have the ability to project force against an island that is right next door. Please explain how they'd project force to Israel.

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u/Sabertooth767 Neoclassical Liberal 25d ago

Oh no, not Russia! Because their war against like 5% of our military budget is going so well for them. I'm shaking, truly.

No country is going to fight the US on Iran's behalf. It's suicide.

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u/justpickaname 25d ago

While I agree with you that they aren't dumb enough to fight us, Americans aren't scared of their military, but their 6,000 nukes.

But you probably knew that.

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u/No_Guidance_5054 25d ago

Yes, because Russia wants to escalate to actual suicide to defend a rogue state in a different region then them.

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u/justpickaname 25d ago

I don't think they do. It's just that worries about Russia are not over their army.

I think they'd be sad to lose a helpful tool, and they wouldn't care beyond that.

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u/Sabertooth767 Neoclassical Liberal 25d ago

Of course, but would Putin effectively blow up his own country over Khomeini getting bitchslapped?

The only way a war with Iran goes hot is if we let Iran build nukes.

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u/justpickaname 25d ago

I was unclear. This part is what I agree with.

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u/Flatbush_Zombie 25d ago

You've never heard of Russia? They were fighting side by side in Syria for the last decade and Iran has given them plenty of weapons for use in Ukraine.

Even parking a carrier strike group, as you say, would still risk substantial American lives and likely result in heavy losses: Iran is not Iraq circa 2003. But I shouldn't be surprised, I don't think any Trump voter actually cared about the risk of war.

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u/Sabertooth767 Neoclassical Liberal 25d ago

>You've never heard of Russia? They were fighting side by side in Syria for the last decade and Iran has given them plenty of weapons for use in Ukraine.

Yeah, how are Syria and Ukraine going for them? I'll tell you: they just lost in one and are stalemated in the other.

>Even parking a carrier strike group, as you say, would still risk substantial American lives and likely result in heavy losses: Iran is not Iraq circa 2003. But I shouldn't be surprised, I don't think any Trump voter actually cared about the risk of war.

"Heavy losses", you say? Even if they managed to destroy a CSG (not happening) and all hands were lost, that's only ~7,500 personnel. Granted that would be more than we lost in Iraq and Afghanistan put together, but if you zoom out, that's a pretty small-scale war in the grand scheme of things.

Also, I'm not a Trump voter.

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u/obtoby1 25d ago

Actually, comparing Iran to 2003 Iraq is apt. When the coalition attacked Iraq, they faced an army of 538,000 active soldiers, 650,000 reservists, 12,000 special Republican guards, 75,000 Republican guards, 30,000 paramilitary forces, and 6,000 Arab volunteers.

Meanwhile today Iran has around 610,000 active soldiers, and 350,000 reservists.

In terms of equipment, while the total number isn't known, all Iran has is Soviet era equipment. Against any modern western nation, especially America, their equipment, no matter what quantity would never out match our quality.

As for Russia, they just fled from Syria and are bogged down in Ukraine. They wouldn't care what happens to Iran enough to get involved outside of token economic support and maybe a few special service troops.