r/DestinyTheGame • u/Soft_Light • Oct 24 '24
The Perk-Distribution Bug has existed since at least Final Shape, 4 months ago. It just didn't happen on any popular perk combinations, so it flew under everyone's radar. Media
https://x.com/mossy_max/status/1849246476041605224
"There's no reason that Moving Target + Threat Detector should be 17x more likely than MT + Repulsor Brace."
Truthteller was reissued when Final Shape came out. Notoriously, it was panned as a pretty shitty reissue, with no good rolls, no clearly defined god roll, and overall just everyone moved on and ignored it.
However, even on Truthteller, the perk distribution is night and day. This is the exact same bug that's on Chill Inhibitor.
It's just that nobody was crying they couldn't get "Harmony + Grave Robber" on the GL. Out of tens of thousands of drops, only 161 people got Danger Zone + Elemental Capacitor.
That is fractions of a percent.
This bug has existed for a while. It's only just now, just this season, just recently, that it's finally happened to a meta defining god roll trait combination.
How long as this been in the system?
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u/ready_player31 Oct 24 '24
I think something is definitely going on, also not sure if this is related or not but i've noticed that since earlier this year, at least since ITL, i've noticed that getting 2 of the same weapon drop in quick succession almost always gives both weapons the exact same main column perks.
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u/ananchor Oct 24 '24
Also noticed this farming the dungeon before they patched the ball dupe. If the same weapon dropped back to back times it was almost always the same roll
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u/PetSruf Oct 24 '24
So THIS is why i couldn't get the volatile+repuslive brace solstice bow! I swear i kept getting the same roll over and over. Must've gotten one of the rolls like 4 times total
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u/EvenBeyond Oct 24 '24
Same, I've had a large lag spike and got two identical weapons down to even the alt barrel. 0.00000128547261686% chance of it happening. Which by itself isn't proof but it's still a very very unlikely outcome
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u/EpicAura99 Oct 24 '24
Back in arrivals when umbrals first became a thing, if you spammed them too fast they’d always give you the same item. I don’t recall if the roll was the same though.
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u/YouMustBeBored Oct 24 '24
It wasn’t the same roll because I remember using that to farm guillotine
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u/nickfrancis86 Oct 24 '24
I hadn’t really put much thought into this as I rarely grind for weapons. But I was running GotD yesterday with some friends and I got 3 Cold Comforts, all with Envious/Explosive Light. My friend got one too, from the same chest with the same perk combo. While it *could * happen by chance, it’s definitely very ominous given the recent discourse on perk distributions.
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u/Uncle_Pastuzo Hunter Memelord of Earth Oct 24 '24
when i was farming GoS, i had at least 4-5 drops of the pulse rifle with heating up + desperado, some of them back to back even. it could genuinely just be a bug that flew under the radar
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u/NullRef_Arcana "You and I are one forever" Oct 24 '24
I did notice this. I called weird RNG the first couple of times, but when it kept happening, I started to have questions
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u/Menirz Ares 1 Project Oct 24 '24
That's been a long standing bug that's presumably due to network latency causing both drops to roll with the same RNG seed, so they'll produce the same result.
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u/F4NT4SYF00TB4LLF4N Oct 24 '24
I've noticed this as well. Even rolling focused loot at core playlists, id wait till 99 engrams and open most of them as quickly as possible. Numerous numerous times I'd get 2 or 3 drops in a row with the same 3rd and 4th column perks. Odds of that with truly RNG drops are astronomically low..
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u/nfreakoss Oct 24 '24
This might just be pure RNG, but when I was dunking spoils for Word of Crota adepts after yeeting him off the map, I got 2 nearly identical rolls back to back. I was hunting for a dragonfly/repulsor toggle with destab. Instead I got:
Demo/Dragonfly/Subsistence + Rampage/Destab/AJ
Demo/Repulsor/Subsistence + Rampage/Destab/AJ
Both with tac mag, though everything else was different.
Actually insane how triple perk rolls ended up being almost identical, even down to the ORDER of each column.
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u/ready_player31 Oct 24 '24
When I did GOS farms last week, i got 2 sacred provenances in a row both with killing wind and kinetic tremors. I would chalk it up to RNG but killing wind and kinetic tremors are both the same # perk in their respective columns
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u/notthatguypal6900 Oct 24 '24
This has been a thing for forever. I've received duplicates many times. I assume it's one of those bugs that is rare and hard to track, so bungie and the community just never addressed it.
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u/ready_player31 Oct 24 '24
I've been playing the franchise since D1 alpha, never noticed this for anything until season of the wish / into the light came out. Thats when I really started seeing it. I do everything in the game, trials adept farming, master raids and dungeon farms, GM speedruns, i've never noticed it for anything else before maybe season of wish last year.
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u/xastey_ Oct 24 '24
THIS... Have have it happen often.. this always made me thing something is off with their rng seed generation.. if they are using just a simple timer that's not going to work well at scale. The Division had it as well to a point 2 different ppl that tried to craft at the same time would get the same perk combo. They ended up looking into it and fixed it somehow
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u/MrTheWaffleKing Consumer of Grenades Oct 24 '24
There is actually a technical reason for this. There's a coding function rand(seed) and a lot of coders will just put time in as the seed- down to microseconds so 2 lines of code ran after eachother will be different. However, it's run on the server's which can lag, and get stuck in the same microsecond. If 2 weapons drop during this lag period, both will have the same roll.
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u/ready_player31 Oct 24 '24
Yeah I get that but the point is I have never noticed it before, and I dont recall it ever happening prior to probably season of the wish.
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Oct 25 '24
[deleted]
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u/MrTheWaffleKing Consumer of Grenades Oct 25 '24
I haven't, but this is something I've learned in coding 101 and it's pretty standard practice in RNG seeding in gaming- you can see discussions here about how it's likely from a lot of people smarter than myself
https://www.reddit.com/r/raidsecrets/comments/ffxwxn/is_rng_actually_linked_to_the_clock_on_the_server/
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u/MagusUnion "You are a dead thing, made by a dead god, from a dead power..." Oct 24 '24
Honest Question: From a programming perspective, when do the guns get the perks on them?
Because it doesn't seem like it's at the same time as when the activity is actually completed.
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u/Soft_Light Oct 24 '24
Based on how people have been able to store pre-determined engrams (such as exotics back when lost sectors dropped specific slotted armor), I think it's at the moment the engram is decrypted.
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u/MagusUnion "You are a dead thing, made by a dead god, from a dead power..." Oct 24 '24
Ah, yeah, I think you are right. I used to do that myself once upon a time. So there is some proof that choices have been silo'd in the past.
So now the question is how far into the RNG chain are the choices being silo'd? Because if the loot reward system is rolling against every possible weapon combination, then roll variance should be higher than it is now.
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u/saibayadon Oct 24 '24
We don't know - it could be at many points and it all depends.
But it's probably something like: Generate Drop Event (Could be an engram drop, decryption, etc) -> Roll Weapon MW, Perks, etc -> Send Weapon to Player
There's no efficient way to store pre-determined outcomes for each player, if that's what you're saying and we know rolls must be dynamic because otherwise they wouldn't be able to do double or triple perk weapons without exponentially increasing the storage for each "preset" weapon per player.
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u/PoorlyWordedName Oct 24 '24
My friend has done the dungeons a single time and has the roll with envious and bait and switch. I hate him now
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u/Psyduckdontgiveafuck Oct 24 '24
They had dream luck
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u/JustMy2Centences Oct 24 '24
This is a tier of RNG that possibly beats getting Gally and Vex on your first Vault of Glass clear in D1.
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u/Terrible_Welcome8817 Oct 24 '24
One of my friends has shit rng but got the god roll chill inhibitor on our second clear of the dungeon and then my other fireteam member got vex and anarchy first runs. RNG do be wildin.
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u/Exodus_Green Oct 24 '24
I have a single clear of Last Wish and got both the curated Nation of Beasts back when it was S tier, and 1KV in the same run.
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u/MrTheWaffleKing Consumer of Grenades Oct 24 '24
Probably quite easily. These superweighted combos are about 1/450-500 range just for the 2/5 (MossyMax on twitter). If D1 was even close to D2, we're looking at 5-10%. Even if it was .5% back then that's 1/200 lol.
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u/ValendyneTheTaken Oct 24 '24
I got Icebreaker my third run, Envious+Bait on around my 7th run, and Demo+Attrition on Velocity on or around my 5th. What does that make mine?
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u/th3groveman Oct 24 '24
I’ve done Warlord’s Ruin once. I have a Lead from Gold/Voltshot Indebted Kindness
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u/Wacky-Walnuts Oct 24 '24
I got it and immediately locked it before this whole controversy happened
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u/ABRRINACAVE Oct 24 '24
Same thing with a buddy of mine. His FIRST drop from the dungeon was a spike nade/handling masterwork/envious/BnS roll
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u/sunder_and_flame Oct 24 '24
How long as this been in the system?
Likely since Forsaken. Yes, that's the OG Crooked Fang random roll, the left being the raw numbers and the right being normalized by dividing each cell by the sum of the column and row to reduce the impact of better perks.
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u/MrTheWaffleKing Consumer of Grenades Oct 24 '24
Nice one. I've been trying to do this for a few other weapons- would you mind sharing how you got those numbers from lightgg?
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u/sunder_and_flame Oct 24 '24
The page source on light.gg weapon pages contains counts of perk combos. The line contains the string "perk5". I wrote a shitty python parsing script to match the hashes from the combos list with the perk names as well.
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u/Maleficent-Shoe-7099 Oct 24 '24
That’s a really fucking large pool of data, at least people won’t be able to just say “only 1k sample size” now. The only thing we can do now is to wait for BUNGIE to address and investigate this, because at this point it doesn’t matter what they do, it’s going to be a shitstorm regardless. Better sooner than later though. Also you can help contribute to chill inhibitor data here: https://d2-loot-tracker.vercel.app/inventory.
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u/thegil13 Oct 24 '24
If only there was a way to reduce the RNG impact with some sort of bad luck protection where we could farm weapons, and, if after a certain amount of drops....we could I dunno...craft our own weapon?
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u/Morgan-CR Oct 24 '24
This is not even random dawg
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Oct 24 '24
[deleted]
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u/Turin_Agarwaen Oct 24 '24
Why would 35,000 samples be a requirement? The Chi-squared test does take sample size into account when determining the p-value. Even at only 450 samples Chill Inhibitor showed a very statistically significant deviation from an even perk distribution.
Why do you need 70 times the number of samples when it is already statistically significant?12
Oct 24 '24
[deleted]
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u/Turin_Agarwaen Oct 24 '24
Yea, that deviation and pattern is shocking. I was expecting something to be weird due to the light.gg data but this data is wild.
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u/Maleficent-Shoe-7099 Oct 24 '24
99% confidence is extremely easy to achieve. A pool of 150 weapons and no envious arsenal is 1% chance of not getting the roll. People have been reporting this with a way larger sample size than 150 ever since the dungeon released.
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Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
[deleted]
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u/sundalius Destiny is Still Good Oct 24 '24
It should be noted the kneewoah’s site is specifically collecting drop instances. Once scraped, it can be deleted. It checks once a minute iirc. The only reason there’d be an issue is if people maliciously skewed the data by intentionally preventing scrapes of specific rolls. It’s not like Light GG that just queries all existing inventories every update tick.
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u/BNEWZON Drifter's Crew Oct 24 '24
My question is, how can you honestly still not be convinced when it’s the same perk combination as a statistical anomaly every single time. Are you accusing the people gathering or submitting data of lying? Surely if it wasn’t true it would be a different set of perks in 1 of the 3 different data sets (the intial 13 people farming/light.gg/Newo’s data)?
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u/Kozak170 Oct 24 '24
Such a joke, if people with your viewpoint has their way in the original thread, this issue would’ve been downvoted and buried to oblivion, leading to this issue continuing on for another few years.
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u/notthatguypal6900 Oct 24 '24
They have been caught with their pants down many times. Exp reduction, 0.04%, IB armor and weapons not dropping on multiple occasions, Eververse, "New investment" into PvP, ect ect.
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u/ninth_reddit_account DestinySets.com Dev Oct 24 '24
The problem is that any light.gg data is going to skewed to more selective rolls from a selective audience. Yes, it would probably skew against this particular combo (people keep better rolls), but it's representative of weapons kept, not weapons dropped.
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u/Zeros294 Oct 24 '24
Its probably always been in the system since random rolls returned.
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u/n080dy123 Savathun vendor for Witch Queen Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
It's hard to tell especially with Wish being as long as it was, we can only look at drop rates now (after this issue was for sure introduced) or historical drops via Light.gg which are subject to change the further back we get due to dismantles and incomplete lists of the combos (assuming past Top 8 aren't visible somewhere I'm not aware of), plus almost every weapon no longer available which wouldn't have been potentially skewed post-TFS (like Multimach in the original report) is a craftable which would skew results further.
If we could get a full distribution from one of the playlist weapons that got sent into legacy focusing in TFS that could shed additional light on the matter, or maybe even the Gambit weapons from Deep.
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u/sunder_and_flame Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
Some of the dogshit, forgotten weapons from Forsaken's release suggest it goes back that far. I've looked at a few, and Crooked Fang-4fr's original release looks to have the issue, especially when normalizing the data by dividing each cell by the sum of the column and row to remove the impact of desirable perks: https://i.imgur.com/H9vFjOn.png
Others seem to have a similar issue, such as Good Bone Structure but Erentil does not, presumably because people farmed the shit out of it.
Edit: I was mistaken, Erentil has whispers of it but not nearly as strong as Crooked Fang's.
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u/n080dy123 Savathun vendor for Witch Queen Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
My first thought was to go back and check Mountaintop so see where the elusive (at least for me, holy hell) ALH/Recomb roll was but the perks themselves are so skewed towards the godroll (which I believe is in one of the common spots in the distribution) that it's futile to try to find anything.
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u/ImJLu Oct 24 '24
Per the consensus current working theory, recomb should be the most commonly dropped perk with ALH, yeah
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u/truser_over9000 Oct 24 '24
As someone who works in a software company, I can confirm that the amount of times where we get bug reports and our reaction is “why the fuck would it do this? No way in hell” is rather frequent. Then we look into it and find some ancient code that was not designed for some of the new features. So, yeah, I get it. Hopefully, on Bungie’s side, this might be fixable
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u/blackest-Knight Oct 24 '24
Or the more simple "Off by 1" error that most programmers are so prone to.
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Oct 25 '24
[deleted]
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u/truser_over9000 Oct 25 '24
I get what you’re saying, but it increases engagement times for the players who are dedicated enough to really grind for certain rolls, and most players don’t. I think, as seen from the backlash, the situation just pissed off the dedicated players, and no profitable business survives by pissing off its best customers. Besides, they were never that dishonest
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u/TheAwesomeMan123 Gambit Prime // There can only be one! Oct 24 '24
The person at Bungie who decided to remove crafting for future weapons must be kicking themselves. No one would have cared to dig into this if we could just farm any old red border roll and craft it instead lol.
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u/Aggressive-Pattern Oct 24 '24
These are dungeon weapons that have never been craftable tho
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u/TheAwesomeMan123 Gambit Prime // There can only be one! Oct 24 '24
Yes but this is the first dungeon available since the release of the Final Shape and according to the data is about the same time the issue has reared its head. 4 months ish. So yeah they let the cat loose amongst the pigeons. Good call bungie
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u/TheZacef Oct 24 '24
I wanna see the data on Aurvandil FR6 for the chill clip/reconstruction roll. I’ve focused over 200 of them without getting this roll that it’s starting to feel impossible lol
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u/Lepidopterran Oct 24 '24
I have this roll, but I only ever saw it once, so yeah it's probably pretty rare.
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u/TheZacef Oct 24 '24
Yep I rarely see it around. I’m determined to get it tho. Been trying with double perks recently and I keep getting subsistence or slideshot/ways with chill. Only a matter of time….
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u/platonicgryphon Stasis Go Zoom Oct 24 '24
How is light.gg getting it's drop data? Is the API providing read access to every guardians vault or only those who have connected to Light.gg allowing it access?
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u/jonijoniii Oct 24 '24
If you check a weapon you can click learn more under "Popular Individual Perks".
Q: What do you mean by the "global Destiny population"?
A: As part of this feature, we are now tracking all active players using the Bungie API, not just those who have signed in on light.gg. The statistics displayed here are based on all players that have logged in over the past 2 weeks.
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u/platonicgryphon Stasis Go Zoom Oct 24 '24
Somehow missed that option looking at the site, but seeing this part of that Q and A:
Q: So this hits literally every player and every weapon they own?
A: Yes and no. Every player should be seen by our scraper. The process will compute stats on items seen in the vault / inventory of players who have granted access to their "non-equipped Inventory". However, the default Bungie.net permissions only allow us to see the full details on weapons that are equipped by each player's characters.
So they are not actually getting every person's full vault, only those that connected and then just seeing those that had the weapon equipped. So that could cause issues with weapon drop data.
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u/jonijoniii Oct 24 '24
If you think about it it should show way better rolls for each weapon. Why would people keep trash rolls in their inventory for a long duration? It is affecting data but towards god rolls not against it.
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u/ctaps148 Oct 25 '24
Why would people keep trash rolls in their inventory for a long duration?
Sentimentality
Forgetfulness
In hopes that the bad perks get buffed one day
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u/jonijoniii Oct 25 '24
1.and 2 ok but it would not show up on the data so much. Not everyone will love the same niche combos.
3 Those are not your equipped ones. Those sit in the vault and would not show up unless you give permission to light.gg.
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u/SCRIBE_JONAS Oct 24 '24
I believe it's only people connected and with what they currently have, not things they have dismantled
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u/MrDeathCoctail Oct 24 '24
It’s existed since into the light, everyone was complaining about weighted rolls then too
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u/Soft_Light Oct 24 '24
Mountaintop's Autoloading + Recombination perks are lined up identically to one another in the API. The perks are horizontal with one another.
https://www.light.gg/db/items/568611922/the-mountaintop/?p=,,,,,0,0
So if you want to argue that Final Shape's "perk weighting" bug existed back then, then you'd also need to argue why the #1 most likely, highest drop chance perk combination wasn't dropping.
Same for Elsie's Rifle. Zen Moment + Headseeker are separated by +3 perks, and therefore should be rare by this bug, and yet Light.gg rates it as the #1 combination at 17.8% of all rolls.
It was likely just a thing in the brand new expansion. No data exists that verifies it was a thing for Into The Light.
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u/Zeto_0 worst golden gun Oct 24 '24
dont look at lightgg for "perk ordering", look at the api directly with for ex. destiny data explorer or another website that doesnt reshuffle the perks like d2foundry. regardless you are correct that alh and recomb are right "next to each other".
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u/saibayadon Oct 24 '24
The Perk Explorer shows the perks in API order like d2foundry would do; They're right: https://d2foundry.gg/w/2372514509?p=0,0,2387244414,460017080&m=0&mw=0
Zen Moment + Headseeker should be a moderately rare roll. The same applies for Luna's Howl; The #3 and #4 most popular trait combo is the most furthest away perk combo possible, akin to EA + BnS.
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u/Zeto_0 worst golden gun Oct 24 '24
correct, d2foundry is right. be aware of analyzing lightgg datasets for especially popular weapons with a large sample size, as they are HEAVILY skewed towards player favorite rolls and are more a reflection of player behaviour than perk drop rates
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u/Halo_cT Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
when you use an older weapon it's much more skewed to good rolls people have kept. I dropped probably 50-100 elsies during that event and i only got one with that zen/hs roll. It's also one of the few remaining ones that have survived many vault audits.
it being popular so much later and it being a good roll both mean this is still very possible.
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u/L1onhawk Oct 24 '24
Is it possible the bug existed back then but the distribution was shifted? Is elsie's +1 roll equal to the current bug?
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u/Soft_Light Oct 24 '24
You would need to gather data on all Into The Light weapons, and also acknowledge that given the longer duration, more people have naturally gotten the ideal god rolls anyway (the bug isn't that certain trait pairings are impossible, just that they're rare. More time = More people would hit the unbalanced 0.01% chance required).
It would be difficult to prove that without another set of comprehensive testing.
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u/PerfectlyFriedBread Oct 24 '24
Double perk drops mess with the data set especially if they're generated row-wise.
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u/sunder_and_flame Oct 24 '24
I don't see any issues with ITL weapons but I'm seeing some in older weapons, possibly going back to Forsaken:
Crooked Fang-4fr (raw/normalized by dividing each cell by the sum of the row and column to remove perk popularity impact): https://i.imgur.com/H9vFjOn.png
Indebted Kindness (raw/normalized): https://i.imgur.com/dmt31ms.png
All Warlords Ruin dungeon weapons (raw): https://i.imgur.com/K7T7Gs6.png
Aurvandil (raw): https://i.imgur.com/cQyd8xI.png
I'm not suggesting this is conclusive, just that there's evidence it goes back further than TFS release.
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u/sundalius Destiny is Still Good Oct 24 '24
You’re forgetting that time has happened and that older weapons have had rolls sharded. The data on old weapons gets worse every second. It’s why Multimach only slightly shows the striations on some of the chart.
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u/apackofmonkeys Oct 24 '24
I got Autoloading/Recombination on my 201st Mountain top. I have to wonder.
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u/saibayadon Oct 24 '24
As someone else pointed out, https://d2foundry.gg/w/568611922?p=0,0,3300816228,469285294&m=0&mw=0 that roll would've been one of the "common" ones. So either the bug didn't exist or de distribution offset was different (but it would have to mean that equal row perks would never roll together which woudl've been SUPER evident)
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u/No-Past5307 Oct 24 '24
Possibly before then. There are certain guns that you can find a bunch of posts complaining about RNG for. Aurvandil (recon + chill) and circular logic (ea + Target lock) come to mind
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u/saibayadon Oct 24 '24
The issue is that if you start retroactively trying to apply this logic things start to break down;
For example, ALH + Chill Clip are side by side on Riptide, same as Recombination and ALH on Mountaintop - which were "hard" to get; Aurvandil (recon + chill) does fit the PPT as it's the furthest distance, but if that's true then the first two examples must be true also and as we know those were hard rolls to get.
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u/stillpiercer_ Oct 24 '24
Riptide comes to mind, a LOT of people bitched about getting ALH/Chill Clip around the time where Chill Clip was really desirable.
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u/lightningbadger Oct 24 '24
I want someone to test igneous hammer so I can see if I'm just a schizo or not, cause man did it feel tough trying to get a PvE roll
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u/ParmesanCheese92 Oct 24 '24
God I love it when incompetence and/or dumb decisions are discovered and plastered all over for anyone to see. Bungie has been getting dogged on constantly since they throttled XP gains back in VANILLA D2 and yet for some goddamn reason people continue to give them the benefit of the doubt, 8 years on.
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u/3N_breeze Oct 24 '24
don't count on it bro. there's a good percentage of the community that is stuck so deeply in Bungie's bums that they will still find a way to call people criticizing them "haters", or they'll tell them to "simply play another game if you don't like it". mark my words
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u/Kozak170 Oct 24 '24
This whole thread and the last one are filled to the brim with people still defending them as if they’re getting paid. Hell, there’s even deniers of the whole throttling XP disaster now.
A large part of this community will never learn and that is Bungie’s market segment to keep whaling for all their worth.
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u/DrainLegacy Kamehameha Oct 24 '24 edited Oct 24 '24
I reckon the RNG system in this game had always been tied to a Time-based RNG
Ever since Forsaken, when I joined the game. Getting multiple drops at the same time would be EXTREMELY likely to be duped if the same item dropped. Be it raids like Leviathan (especially common in raids since 6 ppl would receive rewards at the same time) or double drop events like Double Loot Nightfall. If two engrams drop as the SAME time and they were the SAME weapon, the 3rd and 4th column would likely be EXACTLY the same (first row for guns with multiple rolls). The barrel and magazine perks would always be random AFAI remember.
I bet somewhere during TFS development, they switched their old Time-based RNG to a new Time-based one, and this new one is "skipping frames" in some sense, that's why we get this distinguishable diagonal pattern
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u/Kozak170 Oct 24 '24
I’m inclined to agree to a certain extent because I have also noticed a few instances where I’ve received duplicate drops of a weapon’s perks at the same time.
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u/thricestrat Oct 24 '24
I can tell you exactly when I noticed it got “bad”. The last season where scarlet keep was still cheese-able and palindrome was re-issued. It was literally impossible to get the shit god roll (yes the new perk pool was garbage at that time). After 90 runs, it was very evident that certain perks dropped together. It was also evident that If you got good barrel perks your last 2 columns were trash. Vice-versa as well- if your dmg perks were decent / good (meaning even 1 god roll perk 4th column) you barrel perks and masterwork were trash and didn’t synergize
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u/AlphaSSB MakeShadersUnlimited Oct 24 '24
I wonder if this has affected rolls on the Exotic class items? Or, one step further, has started diddling with how stats are rolling on armor?
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u/Brinks29 Oct 24 '24
This is why crafted weapons are great, you do your grinding and are rewarded with the exact weapon you want. You don't have to worry about RNG and/or in game errors.
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u/wundahwaffle Vanguard's Loyal Oct 24 '24
So this is why I couldn't get a better devils with reconstruction + explosive payload to drop...
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u/Kapusi Oct 24 '24
Its been going on since way before. I have over 800 attempts at getting demo headstone on unending tempest since it came out. 1/800 is kind of a fucking joke. All the time its under over, gutshot, discord, harmony or whatever. 7 roll had headstone. 28 had demo. I just gave up and crafter taken smg with perpetual headstone.
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u/hyde9318 Oct 24 '24
Something that is strikingly funny to me is looking back at various arguments made when they announced that Crafting wasn’t being carried over the same going forward…
“If balance changes make certain features weaker, we then have to farm new things entirely because we can’t edit them through crafting”.
Many made the argument that it wouldn’t be that bad of an issue, Ignitions immediately get busted and become nearly useless, leaving rolls catered to ignition builds dead.
“Getting red borders is already a grind, now we will have to farm endlessly with terrible drop rates for even the slightest chance of getting what we are looking for”.
Many argue that the grind won’t be too bad, and that it’ll be more rewarding to just farm what we want…. Immediately exposes that drop rates are bugged and broken, leaving specific perk combos ridiculously hard to get.
It’s kind of funny to think that the two biggest criticisms of removing seasonal crafting were dismissed by a large chunk of the community, only for both to turn into the biggest controversies of the season less than a month into the episode. Like, of all the things that could have happened after such a controversial removal, Bungie somehow ended up getting possibly the two worst outcomes… WITHIN a week of each other… not only did this show that their mantra of “you just need to grind more” is a terrible outlook on how things should be, but it’s proved that said mindset is dangerous to the game because we see clearly now that we can’t trust that the systems we are being forced to make use of even work as advertised. And if if they break, we are left with literally no alternative for weeks until a fix is finished because, by someone’s dumb idea, they decided the workaround wasn’t grindy enough….
Bungie, bud, homie, bestest friend…. If you’re going to move away from popular quality of life features, you HAVE to make sure the systems you want us to partake in ACTUALLY work. And I don’t envy Bungie right now… the Halloween event is almost here and that is one of the bigger gear grinding events of the year, and then afterwards is Iron Banner with a new weapon everyone wants specific rolls on…. They’ve got to get this fixed as quickly as possible WHILE getting said content finished in time. One hell of a task ahead, guys, good luck.
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u/engineeeeer7 Oct 24 '24
Light.gg has a tool to check perk combo distributions going back to Forsaken. Pattern seems to have been present in Lightfall. Possibly Haunted. Could go far as back as Shadowkeep. The further back the more polluted data is.
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u/Staticks Oct 24 '24
Does this problem affect the Exivuae hand cannon? I can't get the PVP combination of Keep Away + Precision Instrument to drop even once, even though I've farmed it countless times.
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u/Lilscooby77 Oct 24 '24
Does moving target/headseeker fall into this? Feel like the wild card messenger couldnt get this combo compared to the season before.
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u/Bullmoogle Oct 25 '24 edited Oct 25 '24
We all “knew” certain exotics and perk combos seemed much harder to get. I’m old enough to remember punch cards: “Buy 10 snow cones and get one free”. I’d love a punch card for Warlords Ruin. Maybe there isn’t a conspiracy to screw players, BUTT they could have done more to ease our frustration—aka “quality of life” changes. Except we have no punch card and get one shot per week per character to get Buried Bloodline, for example. Some people have played it 100 times and still haven’t gotten it to drop. I’m at something like 60 times. I just can’t sometimes, and I grinded through Act 3 of Echoes like three days before the end I had stopped at the Red Death catalyst node—around 150. So, I played maybe a combined week of that episode. If some dude played your dungeon like 21 times, one punch per character per week for 7 magickal weeks, that’s gotta be enough dude. They just need to tune the message back to “F$&@ the players” instead of “the players can go F$&@ themselves”—because sometimes I do go f**k myself by not playing your game for 6+ months at a time. Give us a path at least. What do I know, I’m just a dumbass with hundreds of dollars to give a company that just wants ooooone more Benjamin.
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u/JaegerBane Oct 24 '24
The thing is everyone's had their own horror story (no pun intended) and the fact RNG is such a heavily focused part of the game means that all these cases have been put down to it, and the only people in a position to properly look at this were Bungie. Who clearly didn't.
Over the last few seasons I must have focused hundreds of Loaded Questions and not once did I see a Overflow/RB roll. I only saw one ALH/RB roll. But about 40% of the rolls had Pugilist and/or Firmly Planted and at one point I rolled 5 separate Pugilists in a row. At the time I just assumed I was unlucky.
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Oct 24 '24
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u/kelgorathfan8 Oct 25 '24
No, that’s because for the first few weeks of forsaken, it was the ONLY heavy weapon in the world drop loot pool
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u/SeimousReign Oct 24 '24
It happened on Elsie Zen Moment Headseeker. But no Pve's suffered... Thats why you didnt know.
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u/thescottmitch Oct 24 '24
Even American RNG is lazy. “Do I really need to go all the way on both sides?!? Ugh 😩
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u/thefiglord Oct 24 '24
there has to be another reason why bungo NEEDS you to keep running an event beyond reason to get. a drop - there has to be a cost break where you pay xxx for a release and that equals xxxxx of play time for running their servers etc - that if a person plays xxxxx hours they also spend xx on eververse - vs a player that plays x hours and spends 0 on things or that. xxxx hour people are 99% likely to buy the next release
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u/itsRobbie_ Oct 24 '24
Envious destabalizing was my god roll and I got it…
Also, I have a really hard time believing a lot of community made data points for this topic… You do not have the same tools and info that bungie does. Where are you getting your info that “only 161 people” got that drop? Lightgg? That isn’t 100% accurate and lightgg is based on popularity anyway.
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u/namesjwoosh Oct 24 '24
That's why they issued a community sourced document, and started tracking different rolls. This isn't to say getting a god roll is impossible. It's saying that certain perk distribution based on the where the perk is in the API affects how likely it is to drop. Look at the data points and tell me that you don't think something is skewed. Not trying to be rude but how can you have a hard time believing it when a weapon perk drop that most people want (new dungeon stasis GL) that has a 1/36 chance to drop ends up taking about 454 drops to get that roll.
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u/ThisWaxKindaWaxy Oct 24 '24
Like with the discourse in perks being distributed wrong, it's like we've been talking about this for a while, for however it's lasted. It's like no one wanted to even check in the live game if, like, the perks aren't truly being dropped randomly.
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u/EpicAura99 Oct 24 '24
This it about what I expected, both sides are telling the truth. There’s no way to weight perks, and the distribution is off. It’s like how the Skyrim devs debunked the popular myth that following foxes led you to new locations, except since fleeing creatures pick a random nearby nav point to flee to, and there are more nav points at locations, it did unintentionally work out that way.