Semi-Weekly Discussion Thread - December 2, 2024

[u/tuesday_mod]

INTRODUCTION

/r/tuesday is a political discussion sub for the right side of the political spectrum - from the center to the traditional/standard right (but not alt-right!) However, we're going for a big tent approach and welcome anyone with nuanced and non-standard views. We encourage dissents and discourse as long as it is accompanied with facts and evidence and is done in good faith and in a polite and respectful manner.

PURPOSE OF THE DISCUSSION THREAD

Like in r/neoliberal and r/neoconnwo, you can talk about anything you want in the Discussion Thread. So, socialize with other people, talk about politics and conservatism, tell us about your day, shitpost or literally anything under the sun. In the DT, rules such as "stay on topic" and "no Shitposting/Memes/Politician-focused comments" don't apply.

It is my hope that we can foster a sense of community through the Discussion Thread.

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Previous Discussion Thread

[u/WeaknessOne9646]

Texas Metro Results (not just the city or urban county but including the suburbs)

Dallas-FTW

2020: Biden 49-48--->2024: Trump 53-46

Houston

2020: Biden 50-49--->2024: Trump 53-46

San Antonio

2020: Biden 51-48--->2024: Trump 52-47

Austin

2020: Biden 62-35--->2024: Harris 59-39

McAllen

2020: Biden 58-41--->2024: Trump 51-48

El Paso

2020: Biden 67-32--->2024: Harris 56-43

This kills the Blexas. A decade of progress wiped out in one night. Allred was a good candidate (had I lived there I'd probably have voted for him) but he made a major error not seeing this coming and holding off on a statewide run

[u/DerangedPrimate → u/WeaknessOne9646]

Blexas was entirely predicated on Hispanics voting Democratic at the rates they did from 2008 to 2016. Culturally, the Democrats really did leave behind Texas Hispanics, who still largely identify themselves with more conservative forms of Christianity, Catholicism and Pentecostalism, regardless of regular practice. Folks around here also care MUCH more about money and the economy than about what is perceived to be nebulous forms of justice toward historically marginalized groups.

I also would say that Texas doesn’t have a healthy civic culture. Local government, especially in South Texas, tends to be insular, marginally competent, and perceived to be staffed by corrupt officials that look out for themselves and their own, which is often true. People largely seem to think of government in terms of power than process and policy here, probably less so than places with healthier civic cultures, like New England and the Midwest. Trump’s style is thus less offensive.

[u/WeaknessOne9646 → u/DerangedPrimate]

I wonder if we ever get an RGV like swing in the black belt. I wouldn't bet on it but it would fit with cultural realignment. Trump did well actually in winning a few majority black counties in Virginia and the Deep South but I am guessing it was mostly depopulation in these places and high white turnout and less (not zero but less) actually winning black votes

I think more likely candidates for such a swing would be

A: Utah the other way (it had the smallest right shift in the country and fits the educated suburbanite model of the current Dem coalition)

B: NYC (the trends here for Dems have been inching badly for quite some time---Hochul actually improved on Cuomo upstate in 2022 but collapsed in the metro)---Queens is actually more Republican than Westchester at this point and Staten Island votes like a rural midwestern county

Sleeper candidate but Hawaii is one to watch as well down the line. Like south Texas it doesn't have a particularly strong civic culture and a lot of culturally conservative nonwhites (Natives and Filipinos) that hated the lockdowns of Covid. It is a bit of a vote sink for liberal whites though and Japanese which aren't as conservative as the Filipinos