r/neoliberal • u/BastianMobile NATO • Nov 17 '24

Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving 'to other ventures and opportunities' News (US)

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/
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u/Trim345 Effective Altruist Nov 17 '24 edited Nov 17 '24

It's complicated. In 2020, Selzer's poll was much more negative for Biden than the other polls, which turned out to be accurate, which gave credence to her poll this time being right too. Also, Trump did better than all the other Iowa pollsters showed too: none of them gave him more than +9, but his actual result is +14.

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u/Tartaruchus YIMBY Nov 17 '24 edited Nov 17 '24

I don’t really see how it is complicated. The fact is that Selzer is an individual pollster, like any other, and even the best pollster is statistically certain to occasionally produce outlier polls in both directions.

No matter how good Selzer’s polling history has been, this was clearly an outlier. The chances of it being right while every other poll conducted in the state, including by Selzer itself, was wrong, was exceedingly slim.

The fact that people here just outright refused to acknowledge this was entirely due to a willingness to just ignore reality in favor of a narrative that felt good.

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u/TownSquareMeditator Nov 17 '24

It’s not complicated at all. The sub was overeager to convince itself that her poll was a bellwether because it was a bellwether it wanted. Catching a trend four years ago that others missed doesn’t make one a guru; she just picked up on a trend that others didn’t. Once. So I agree, it’s only complicated if you’re trying to forgive a bias.

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u/PlayDiscord17 YIMBY Nov 17 '24

Except it wasn’t just once. Both in 2016 and 2020 her results were viewed by many to be outliers only to be proven right come Election Day. Her claim to fame comes from predicting Obama’s 2008 primary win almost to the exact margin IIRC. There’s a reason why Nate Silver while very skeptical about the poll still said he wouldn’t play a game of poker with Selzer. Her luck just finally ran out this time just like she predicted it would someday due to her unique methodology of only weighing by demographics.