Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving 'to other ventures and opportunities'

[u/BastianMobile]

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/

[u/creaturefeature16]

I think that's why a lot of leftists are falling to the same election fraud conspiracies as Trump supporters did. Between polls like Selzer, Jon Ralston election prediction (first time he was wrong in 10 years), Trump's weird comments about "we don't even need your votes" and acting like he didn't even care towards the end...it seems surprising that he won.

But at the end of the day, I think the polls were indeed correct this time. It was very close with a MOE that bent in Trump's favor....CNN did a bunch of forecasting and showed this exact scenario playing out if the polling error was in Trump's favor.

Turns out: the American electorate is far more binary than we thought, and having your unpopular candidate drop out of the race in the last 3 months if an election, only to be replaced by another unpopular candidate that nobody asked for, demotivates a big chunk of your base.

[u/AnnoyedCrustacean → u/creaturefeature16]

I am not surprised he won

I am surprised he won the popular vote, and 7/7 swing states

That just seems like he's feeding his own ego

[u/TheGhostofJoeGibbs → u/AnnoyedCrustacean]

The 7/7 swing states is the most likely scenario once you figure out which way the polling error goes. Either candidate was likely to win all the swing states once you figure out which way the voting was breaking.

[u/AnnoyedCrustacean → u/TheGhostofJoeGibbs]

Bologna

I cannot accept that a country as divided as we are would give nothing to the opposing candidate

[u/TheGhostofJoeGibbs → u/AnnoyedCrustacean]

The swing states were not independent variables, they are correlated with each other.

[u/AnnoyedCrustacean → u/TheGhostofJoeGibbs]

What you're saying, is so long as everything is uniform, you're fine with accepting results, without verifying?

Reagan would be disappointed

[u/creaturefeature16 → u/AnnoyedCrustacean]

You don't have to accept it, for it to also be true.

[u/[deleted] → u/creaturefeature16]

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[u/creaturefeature16 → u/[deleted]]

"scientific rigor" = conspiracies. Ironic.

The fact you're calling them "Elon's voting machines" shows you have not one iota of a clue how US elections are run.