r/neoliberal PROSUR Oct 14 '24

The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine Opinion article (non-US)

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impending-betrayal-ukraine
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u/goldenCapitalist NATO Oct 14 '24

I am Ukrainian, so I have been following this conflict closely not since 2022, but 2013 and the Maidan protests, which in themselves were a continuation of the 2004 Orange Revolution. I've been watching Ukraine struggle for freedom and independence since 1991.

The 2014-22 period was one of "conflict management" in Europe. The Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which considered Russia an enforcer (not a party) to the conflict, were expressly designed to contain the Donetsk/Luhansk conflict and prevent it from spiraling out of control into a broader war. They were not meant to help Ukraine in any way.

So when I say that it's undeniable reality that that the collective West has decided to condemn Ukraine to a slow, attritional death by a thousand cuts, I don't say that out of naivete or dooming. I say that because I've seen this playbook before.

The fundamental changes from 2014-22 are there, and they are more than welcome to see. The levels of military support, economic aid, and favorable loan terms are indespensible lifelines to Ukraine. The provision of advanced military technology has so far prevented Ukraine from losing.

I'll repeat: The provision of advanced military technology has so far prevented Ukraine from losing. But "not losing" does not mean "winning."

It should be plain to any observer of this war that Ukraine is not currently winning. They are treading water, and just barely.

There has been a general fear of Russian retaliation in the West that has stopped them from giving Ukraine the resources they need to firmly put Russia on the backfoot on every front. In the minds of European and American leaders, the conflict has grown to resemble the "managed" conflict of Donbas from 2014-22. "Something still going on but it's manageable. As long as Ukraine isn't losing badly, it can keep losing a little and that's okay! Russia is losing more resources right? Every inch gained costs them tremendously in men and equipment."

Every inch gained by the Russians, in their brutal war of imperialist conquest and genocide, is still an inch taken by force from Ukraine.

Numerous people have convinced themselves that "everything comes down to the election. Biden isn't taking more decisive action now because of the election! Once Kamala gets elected, everything will be okay." This is of course ignoring the fact that there is a coin flip's chance of Russian asset Donald Trump taking the White House instead.

If Ukraine isn't decisively winning, it is losing. The West is losing. Democracy, liberalism, and freedom are losing.

These articles are very important. They serve to remind us: "WAKE UP PEOPLE. Democracy will die when no one was looking, and Ukraine may just lose if we let it."

I'm glad this article was posted. We need constant reminding that Ukraine needs support now more than ever.

To the more policy-oriented folks here, why is it that House Foreign Relations Chair Michael McCaul (and related committees) can release a concrete victory for Ukraine proposal, but the Biden administration submits their strategy proposal two months after it was due, and is entirely classified?

Once Ukrainians stop dying from Russian missile strikes once Ukraine has the military permissions and equipment to strike deep into Russia's bases, once the West gets to a concrete policy decision to defeat Russia in battle on the fields of Ukraine, that's when I'll be convinced the West has Ukraine's true best interests at heart. Until then, all I'm seeing is enhanced conflict management.

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u/holamifuturo YIMBY Oct 15 '24

Lately I’ve been following international conflicts and the geopolitical history of the current state of the world and a disturbing pattern I’ve noticed is that genocide mostly happen quick and silent. Often unfolds beneath the veil of global indifference. The world remains blind to such wretched and wicked acts until the harm is done. Only then do we ask ourselves, with belated remorse, what missteps allowed such horrors to proceed unchecked? How could this have been prevented?

Surely we can prevent another one now but alas! Today, we find ourselves at a crossroads where another such catastrophe could, perhaps, be averted. Yet, public discourse is preoccupied with transient inconveniences based on vibes—short-term domestic nuisances easily remedied—while few recognize the grave dangers looming on the horizon for the free world. The disjointed pieces of this geopolitical puzzle remain unsolved by a populace more indulged in performative activism rather than actual grievous events.

If only the populist outcry over a faux "genocide" in Palestine, a conflict distorted by rhetoric had as much fervor devoted towards the true existential threat in Ukraine. Their energy might serve a cause that holds real peril for the stability of the international order. Instead, we are left grappling with misplaced narratives, while a genuine crisis festers in Europe, threatening the very liberties they claim to defend.

I might be replying to this late but you’re right the silence around russian atrocities is deafening. We should speak this louder and allow ourselves to fully support an ally that proved itself aligned and reliable with our values Ukrainian liberty is liberty for us all!