The Impending Betrayal of Ukraine

[u/RabidGuillotine]

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impending-betrayal-ukraine

[u/Jigsawsupport]

I have never read worse dreck in my life.

"the fundamental problem has been the failure of Europe to commit to the defeat of Putin’s invasion."

A statement that is so wrong it is insulting,.

Less budgetary support than the EU, less tanks provided than Denmark, just how many fixed wing aircraft has the US provided?

0

And yet the US sits on endless mountains of military might, a lot of which is quietly rusting away never to be used, what it does send is comically overvalued. Europe can not send weapons it does not have, nor manufacture weapons from factories that are not built.

Europe as a hole has done its best propping up the Ukrainian state, and looking after its people that have had to flee.

At the same time some European nations have literally shown incredible courage, and stood up to Russia regardless of the terribly real risk, since most have no nuclear deterrent to deter the worst, and if the worst does happen a Nuclear strike on Riga or Warsaw or Berlin may well be a step on the escalation ladder. And they only have the word of the second morally bankrupt in a row US administration, to shelter behind that NATO actually means something.

And we can ask Zelensky what the word of a US president means.

If there is a security failure here its because the US public keep voting in a literal fascist movement or the hopeless, the geriatric or the spineless.

[u/MrStrange15 → u/Jigsawsupport]

You do know the author and the institute is British, right?

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/MrStrange15]

Yes.

Firstly he is just another plastic Atlantacist, that has done so much damage to the UK.

Secondly and more importantly this is not just his opinion, its the go to propaganda line now the powers that be in Washington, have decided to screw over the Ukrainians.

"Oh we decided tried to help the Ukrainians, but really it all the fault of those decadent Europeans who spent all their money on healthcare, if ooonnnnnllllyyyy they have pulled their weight".

And its crap, utter mendacious crap, Europe has given more, Europe has risked far more.

Fundamentally europe can't pull Ukraine out of the mire alone because it doesn't have adequate Nuclear weapons to act as a shield.

If we imagined a world without nuclear weapons for a moment, the war in Ukraine would already be over, Europes airpower alone would rapidly tip the war in Ukraines favour.

But most of Europe can not risk to much with out cast iron US assurances, which we don't have since it is very favourable to US interests, for a North Korean style Russia to be perpetually hanging vampire like over Europe.

[u/SouthernSerf → u/Jigsawsupport]

If we imagined a world without nuclear weapons for a moment, the war in Ukraine would already be over, Europes airpower alone would rapidly tip the war in Ukraines favour

The same European Air Forces that couldn’t sustain an air campaign against Libya are going to decisively defeat the 3rd largest air force while flying over the most dense and lethal air defense system in the world?

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/SouthernSerf]

Yes.

Lets be realistic, lets not big up Putins horde.

The Ukrainians have done wonders with storm shadows crudely fastened on to Tornado Pylons screwed on to ancient SU24s.

They have wiped airbases off the map with jet drones that are just modified Royal Navy target drones.

It wouldn't be pretty and at times farcial but even if the whole of Europe could put a few quality squadrons in the air, at a time then the Russians couldn't do much about it.

[u/SouthernSerf → u/Jigsawsupport]

This is pure Ukrainian propaganda. Ukraine is doing the equivalent of drive by shootings. They are not engaging in complex air operations to suppress Russian air defense, they’re not interdicting Russian units behind the lines, they’re not using CAS in support of ground operations. Ukraine is using clever insurgent tactics in the air to attack targets of opportunity, but that’s nowhere near the same as launching an air campaign in support of ground operations.

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/SouthernSerf]

"This is pure Ukrainian propaganda"

WTF

No your right I take it back, having your Submarines explode in port, and having modified Cessnas smash into your oil refineries is of course peak air defence.

We should all be very respectful of Putins impenetrable next level bleeding edge wundewaffen, its not like they have had to pull in Air defences from as far away as the Kurils to replace the attrioned systems.

Clearly Europes collective Air forces would be hopelessly slaughtered, please save us USAF you are our only hope.

[u/GripenHater → u/Jigsawsupport]

I mean I don’t have much faith in Europes air power either. They just don’t have the munitions, technology, or depth to maintain that kind of air campaign. A dominant air campaign like what we saw in Iraq or Serbia all but requires US participation

[u/MyrinVonBryhana → u/Jigsawsupport]

The Italians get clowned on for their poor performance in WW2 and they were able to pull off insurgent attacks that sunk British capital ships.

[u/SouthernSerf → u/Jigsawsupport]

No your right I take it back, having your Submarines explode in port, and having modified Cessnas smash into your oil refineries is of course peak air defence.

The fact that you think this is impressive shows you're ignorance. This is the air war equivalent of car bombs and sniper attacks, again opportunistic but the material damage is significantly lower than the perceived propaganda value.

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/SouthernSerf]

*Watches Tropet ammunition depot explode like a nuclear bomb taking months of production with it.

SouthernSerf "Pathetic they call this an air war?"

[u/galliaestpacata → u/Jigsawsupport]

I’ll concede that Europe has ‘given more,’ although that’s not strictly correct.

Why wouldn’t Europe give more? The war in Europe affects Europe more than it does the U.S. I want Ukraine to win, but nothing changes for Americans if Russians collect taxes in Avdiivka instead of Ukrainians.

I want Ukraine to win, but “the US has to do more to protect Europe now, or else the US will have to do more to protect Europe later,” just isn’t a convincing argument to most American voters.

[u/FlamingTomygun2 → u/galliaestpacata]

The us is the security guarantor for the Americas, the Middle East, the pacific, AND Europe. Frankly Europe SHOULD be able to contribute more than the US because its economy is the same size as the US and it is not forced to focus on every other major global region as well.

[u/Jigsawsupport → u/[deleted]]

Why?

The lynchpin of European US relations since then end of WW2 is defence.

There is of course other shared interests and commonalities but that is the lodestone, that is why the US maintains the favourable position it does in Europe.

In fact it is remarkable how quickly relations decayed after the end of the cold war when defence for a time was not considered important.

It was not long before US Congressmen was trying to rename French fries as Freedom fries because stuff those dastardly French.

There was real pressure on the relationship between the US and some European nations over numerous issues.

People were very publicly asking what was NATO for?

In a way it was lucky for the US that Putin followed an increasingly dictatorial and hostile path.

As such there is no desire to risk a Russian collapse now, partly because it would be dangerous to do so, but also because it just isn't in the US interest.

A wizened and shrunken Russia, that is still hypothetically dangerous, is exactly what Washington is going for.