r/neoliberal • u/Currymvp2 unflaired • Apr 13 '24

Iran begins attack, launching dozens of drones that'll take hours to arrive News (Middle East)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-iran-begins-attack-on-israel-launching-dozens-of-drones-thatll-take-hours-to-arrive/
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u/that0neGuy22 Resistance Lib Apr 13 '24

Chat is this 1914

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u/Monk_In_A_Hurry Michel Foucault Apr 13 '24 edited Apr 13 '24

I don't really think so.

Factors in favor of it being 1914:

  • This response will probably necessitate an Israeli response, which would move things up the escalation ladder and deepen the conflict

Factors against it being 1914:

  • Neither Israel nor Iran want a full shooting war with each other. Israel is already overextended fighting Hamas and occupying Gaza, while Iran would not be able to successfully defeat Israel (and the US) in a direct conflict.

  • The US is taking a de-escalatory stance by shooting down drones, but has not announced any intention to directly strike Iranian forces.

  • The choice of Iran to send drones and missiles (i.e., unmanned assets) also indicates they don't want to spend more casualties than they have to.

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u/DuchessofDetroit Apr 13 '24

And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side. I'm being a bit hopeful here but Iran's economy is doing terrible right now so I don't think they really have the desire to get into a war

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u/GrinningPariah Apr 13 '24

And I just don't see anyone coming to Iran's side.

In theory they're aligned with Russia and China, but I think for both of them the cost of getting involved is too high, though in very different ways. China has too much to lose, and Russia can't afford any aid to give.

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u/DuchessofDetroit Apr 14 '24

Exactly what I thought. Russia is otherwise occupied and I srsly doubt China will get involved. Maybe N. Korea but that's definitely not gonna happen

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u/spudicous NATO Apr 13 '24

The powers not wanting a shooting war with each other is not a mark against it being 1914 considering that none of the five major powers wanted one either (except maybe the Austrians).

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u/zedority PhD - mediated communication studies Apr 13 '24

What would be the factors pressuring nations into a war that they didn't want, either in 1914, now, or both?

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u/RsonW John Keynes Apr 14 '24

In 1914, it was the intricate web of treaties that formed the Concert of Europe. The lead up to WWI has been dubbed "The Seminal Tragedy". At each step, everyone could see the eventual outcome, no one wanted that outcome, but the major players were all too goddamned proud to be the one to say "hey, this is fucking stupid, what the fuck are we even doing? How about we just fucking not?" And so, millions of young men died in the mud.

Today? I don't think that there's an equivalent. No government nowadays goes unwillingly into war except when invaded. Humanity actually learned its lesson from WWI. Good for us.