Trump Team Weighs Options, Including Airstrikes, to Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program

[u/200-inch-cock]

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-plan-nuclear-weapons-def26f1d

[u/Bunny_Stats]

And yes, you can absolutely post-hole the shit out of it, or launch some kind of short-term raid (similar to what the U.S. did with Osama) and get back out.

You watch too many movies my friend. Slipping in a couple of helicopters to take on a terrorist with a couple of bodyguards and no state support is in no way comparable to entering the heavily fortified military bases under which the enrichment facilities are built. No offence, but this isn't a feasible option. It's like suggesting North Korea could "raid" Fort Knox.

[u/Airedale260 → u/Bunny_Stats]

You misunderstand a couple of key points. My argument isn’t that it would be easy, but rather that it’s not either “massive invasion and occupation” or nothing; you can do the “objective raid/invasion” bit and then get back out without an occupation.

It would still be a big challenge, since it would likely require something along the lines of multiple carrier groups, amphibious assault ships, the 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions, the entire Ranger regiment, and detachments from special forces backed up by a metric fuckton of airpower, but unlike the North Koreans (or anyone else), the U.S. has the logistical capability to actually pull such an operation off, since we have a global reach.

It wouldn’t be easy, but it’s certainly possible for the U.S. to pull it off. More so if certain allies in the region (some combination of Kuwait, the UAE, the Saudis, etc) allow us to stage out of their territory and/or allow us to use them as regrouping points.

[u/Bunny_Stats → u/Airedale260]

Keep in mind we aren't talking about a single facility here, we're talking about multiple enrichment sites across a half-dozen military bases that are spread throughout the interior of Iran. This would not be a small operation.

For comparison, it took six months to prepare the supplies necessary for the first Gulf War, which didn't step foot in Iraq and only focused on liberating Kuwait. While you could skimp and get away with fewer supplies in your limited-invasion plan, do you really want to risk having the entire 82nd and 101st divisions left in the middle of Iran without enough supplies to get them out? If not, you're going to need a pretty substantial build up above and beyond what's necessary to ensure you have the spare capacity to handle unexpected problems, like say an Iranian drone slipping through and hitting an ammo dump, and that takes time.

Meanwhile, Iran is two weeks away from building a nuke if they go all-out.

In a race as to who would be ready first, I would not be confident betting on the US.

[u/seeyaspacetimecowboy → u/Bunny_Stats]

I would not bet against the world's premier areal strike force that loves sitting around and wargaming every possible "how do we bring fury and fire precisely where we want it, when we want it" scenario with its titanic budget. Israel infiltrated and completely trashed Iran's capabilities from land bases in a restricted geographic origin.

The USAF can bomb Iran from Arkansas.

[u/Bunny_Stats → u/seeyaspacetimecowboy]

And that's precisely why Iran has spent the last 20 years making sure it's enrichment facilities are deep underground, safe from any airstrike.

[u/seeyaspacetimecowboy → u/Bunny_Stats]

safe from any airstrike.

Similar to ships safe from any icebergs.

[u/Bunny_Stats → u/seeyaspacetimecowboy]

Perhaps, maybe Iranians underestimated the potency of weaponry against them, but I'd be wary of assuming by default that the US can destroy an underground facility specifically designed to protect against an air attack.