r/miamidolphins • u/expellyamos • 3d ago
[Neal Driscoll] The Miami Dolphins will be getting a 3rd-round compensatory draft pick for Robert Hunt in the 2025 NFL Draft AND The Miami Dolphins will be getting a 4th-round compensatory draft pick for Christian Wilkins in the 2025 NFL Draft.
https://twitter.com/NealDriscoll/status/187415506081044112054
u/Sadman_OW 3d ago edited 3d ago
Nick Korte who’s the big time comp pick guy on Twitter has clarified this a bit.
Wilkins contract is still likely over the APY threshold the NFL has for a 3rd round comp pick. However, there is a boost for playtime that would have guaranteed the pick like we are seeing with Hunt.
So the NFL may still value Wilkins contract above the threshold. Just depends on where they set the number. It’s actually the opposite for Hunt who was originally on the edge of “would it be a 3rd or will it be a 4th”. But since he’s played every snap he’ll likely get a boost and solidify the 3rd.
Edit: Alain Poupart has a great breakdown HERE explaining that the playtime bonus is just one part and may or may not affect the pick.
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u/JustTheBeerLight 3d ago
Adding two starters with these picks would be a really nice way to fix our problems.
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u/HappyChaos2 3d ago
A DT and G too.
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u/JustTheBeerLight 3d ago
Yeah. Preferably a guy with G/C skills. Definitely need to bolster the DL.
Round 1: BPA, prefer a lineman
Round 2-7: OL, DL, S, TE, and maybe a dart throw QB.
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u/IgyYut 2d ago
TE should honestly be a 2nd round pick. This TE draft class is littered with talent. We could probably get someone on the edge of being a first end talent for our 2nd, we need a good blocking / receiving TE to pair with Jonnu.
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u/JustTheBeerLight 2d ago
I'd like to try to trade for Cole Kmet or Michael Meyer. If the price is right get a guy that is already proven. Both teams will have new coaching staffs too.
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u/expellyamos 3d ago
Thank you for the clarification!
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u/Sadman_OW 3d ago
Your post sent me down a rabbit hole so I’m trying to cope as best as possible lol.
Unfortunately we won’t know for sure until March when they announce the picks. The good news is that Hunt’s pick is almost certainly guaranteed. Now we’re just on pins and needles worrying about Wilkins.
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u/jrosen9 3d ago
So are OPs numbers set in stone or are they not official yet?
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u/Sadman_OW 3d ago
Neal Driscoll is over reactionary and saw Nick’s post and tried to pass the info along as his own.
Neal’s post was at 1:06pm, Nick posted this at 12:48pm. “Looks like bad 2025 comp pick news for the Dolphins: Christian Wilkins has now seen his snap count fall below 25% on the season.
That means that he gets no boost at all in the compensatory formula, and that could drop the round his contract is valued in from the 3rd to the 4th.”
https://x.com/nickkorte/status/1874150552940274151?s=46
Nick then clarified that Wilkins APY could still meet the criteria for a 3rd and he wouldn’t rule out that they still get a 3rd. The news today that started this conversation is purely that Wilkins snap counts came out and they are at 23%, and the minimum threshold to get a point for the comp pick formula is to play 25% of your snaps.
The comp formula is basically a series of percentages that earn you points. If you meet a certain number of points you get a certain comp pick. The primary point getter is money, but there’s a bunch of bonuses for stuff like All Pro, playtime, etc. Wilkins deal SHOULD cover that threshold for a 3rd regardless of any boosts. BUT, none of us truly know until the NFL announces it, so Wilkins missing this playtime bonus could potentially screw us. Basically let’s say you needed 24 points to get a 3rd this year, and his deal earned 23. He’s got nothing else helping him so his deal only qualifies for a 4th now.
I think the Bills got screwed last year on a comp pick because I think a team restructured a deal on a player and it messed with how you measured their APY and it knocked the a comp pick down a round for them. Since then it’s hard to know how exactly they measure the APY until they actually announce picks. That’s why Nick tweeted out “hey Wilkins isn’t getting this bonus point so it’s purely on contract and none of us know what the NFL’s threshold is for contracts sooooooooo could maybe be bad news for the Dolphins”
The NFL won’t announce comp picks until Free Agency so it’s 3 months of being stuck in limbo. This isn’t great news but none of us know how the NFL actually does this stuff so just don’t be surprised either way.
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u/Outrageous-Elk-4671 3d ago
It was a very rich deal, both relative to his position and to most non-QB contracts in general. Short of a funky restructure - which is completely unnecessary for a team with their cap space, I can't imagine a cap hit of over $30 million on a 9 figure contract not exceeding the threshold. This feels like Neil trying to attract views.
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u/Sadman_OW 3d ago
Lil bit yea. Nick posted the information and then immediately Neal posted MIAMI WILL ONLY GET A 4TH FOR WILKINS which sent Twitter into a frenzy.
To be fair, this is the one thing that could ruin the Wilkins comp pick and it’s unfortunate that it was 2% away. If dude played the rest of the game he probably makes it and we don’t even have to worry about it.
Won’t know until March so that sucks. I’m preparing for a 4th but wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a 3rd.
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u/Inevitable-Grass-477 3d ago
Hunt has been phenomenal this year but idk if he was worth the price tag
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u/AOA001 3d ago
Considering our offense line is atrocious, something tells me it was worth looking into.
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u/TheMightyJD 3d ago
Our oline is literally middle of the pack
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u/thewhitelink 3d ago edited 3d ago
Our OGs are worse than literally every starting OG and most backups.
We have a horrible run game because of it.
Edit: relying on consistently injured players like Armstead and Jackson to bolster the line when you have 2 of the worst OGs in the NFL starting is crazy.
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u/EnochofPottsfield 2d ago
This comment reads like someone that doesn't actually have any idea what the state of the rest of the NFL's guards look like
Doubt
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u/thewhitelink 2d ago
Why don't you go look up their grades from pff, and listen to Kyle crabbs grade the OGs.
Eichenberg and Jones are horrendous and not getting any better.
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u/EnochofPottsfield 2d ago
Do you have the grades? And when is the episode from? I'll look them up and educate myself, but I still find it hard to believe with how our pass blocking has performed
Agreed on run blocking, but imo that's coaches asking non zone blocking guys to zone block
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u/thewhitelink 2d ago
Eichenberg's overall grade is 104th/130 OGs
Jones is 92nd/130 OGs
I believe it was the episode from Dec 18:
"Which Miami Dolphins OL Can Be Considered Reliable Answers For A Future Offensive Line?"
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u/EnochofPottsfield 2d ago
Yeah I think I'll take the L on this one 😅 I hope McDaniel doesn't see this as proof of concept with our overall pass blocking being pretty decent, kinda proving his point about guard importance. We need a run game, and Idk if he values it quite enough
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u/thewhitelink 2d ago
I'm pretty sure he knows Eichenberg sucks, otherwise Wynn wouldn't be getting run lol. I just really hope we move on from at least 2/3 OGs and bring in actual talent.
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u/tubbynuggetsmeow 3d ago
Oh god not another one. Dude are you blind? We can’t convert short yardage to save our life and our run game sucks. The only reason our oline is graded middle of the pack is because our entire offense is schemed around our oline weakness. Why do you think we’ve run so many screens and short passes this year? Why do you think we don’t have an answer for cover 2?
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u/HexedCosta 3d ago
Center is good, Tackles are a carousel, and guard is literally terrible. You can’t just say “o line is average” because the interior limits what this offense is capable of, a lot.
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u/TheWizardOfDeez 3d ago
The number one reason we have the "can't beat good teams" allegation is because the O-Line is terrible against good teams. One game against a bad team they aren't allowing a sack at all, the next against a good team Tua is running away all game. Sometimes you need to ignore stats and focus on what your eyes see.
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u/No_Advantage_2854 1d ago
That's false because these metrics don't take into account time to throw compared to other QBs. Tua's quick trigger makes them look good.
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
For a QB like Tua?
He is 100% worth it
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u/elbenji 3d ago
he was always a stronger run blocker. His price tag was just simply too crazy for a guard
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
Guard and center are some of the most important positions for a QB like Tua, he's a pocket passer
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u/elbenji 3d ago
Our center is good. Guards are shit
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
So 1/3
That means our IOL sucks
Going into this season being OK with Eich as a starter is malpractice
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u/elbenji 3d ago
Wynn was the starter lol
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
And got injured immediately to a surprise of no one except our GM and HC
I'm over them and their philosophy of building teams from the outside in
Football is won in the trenches, untill we get a HC /GM that gets that we will continue being the laughing stock of all professional sports.
Not winning a play off game in 10 years is really unlucky, not winning one in 24 years and counting is a sign of a fundamentally broken franchise
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u/Diablo689er 3d ago
Yes he was. Consider all the other places we wasted money and you could have come up with 20M quick.
3M on duke riley with 4% of snaps played 3M on OBJ 1.3M on Channing tindall 2M on Poyer 4M on Liam that wouldn’t be needed.
That’s not even getting to the Shaq Barrett contract. Or how you could have done further work with other contracts to make space.
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u/The_Godfather5 3d ago
I’m actually very happy with this
This is how competent teams with good coaching and development should be run just look at the Packers and Ravens. Two of the highest comp pickers in nfl history and are always competitive because they can always get decent young depth despite paying the big bucks to their stars.
We did the 1st hard part of getting said good talent and letting them walk now it’s time to do the 2nd hard part which is continuously developing said good talent
And for the love of god can we please have our stars be stars and not sub par injured stars
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u/Ethangains07 3d ago edited 3d ago
Such bullshit that we didn’t get a 3rd for losing Wilkins but such is life as a dolphins fan lol
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u/TheMightyJD 3d ago
Wilkins got hurt super early in the season.
Imagine how the Raiders feel about splurging and getting nothing in return…
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u/TheWizardOfDeez 3d ago
Yup, it is inconvenient for us that it converted to a 4th, it's devastating that they wasted all that cap space just for him to have a season ending injury 5 games in.
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u/HosaJim666 3d ago
Praying that anyone but Grier gets to use them
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u/Shikadi314 3d ago
Damn I totally forgot about Wilkins even though I was bummed he left. Damn 84 million guaranteed to ride IR for the majority of the season woof.
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u/Harambe18 3d ago
as expected, but flipped. when they left bet most of us thought the 3rd would come from wilkins not hunt.
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u/whats_that_do 3d ago
I'm still bummed we had to let Wilkins go. His was the first jersey I've purchased since Marino was playing.
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u/Jonjon428 3d ago
Sucks Wilkins got hurt. Could have gotten a 3rd. But I will take having a ton of draft capital this year either way
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u/Civil-Ad-4462 3d ago edited 3d ago
That's three 3rd rd compensatory picks. We've lost Robert Hunt,Mike Geisicki, Michah Fitzpatrick, Christian Wilkins, Jordan Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel. Some are playing well for other clubs. Who's the GM for the Dolphins? Tell the GM to pick up the phone the "Grim Reaper is on line two!" Too much talent walking out he door.
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u/marxhitchenssocrates 3d ago
Should've kept them both.
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u/expellyamos 3d ago edited 3d ago
Tell me you don't understand the cap without telling me you don't understand the cap
Oh I was wondering why your username looked familiar - you were the guy who made the "I watched highlights of 3 Dolphins games this season and these are my thoughts on how they should rebuild" post the other day 💀💀💀
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
We should have let Wilkens walk, but we definitely should have signed Hunt
IOL is extremely important for a QB like Tua
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u/ProphetNimd 3d ago
I'd rather us have kept Hunt than extending Ramsey and Tyreek but paying that much money to a right guard usually isn't smart unless you have a rookie contract QB.
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u/Remarkable_Ship_4673 3d ago
Maybe for other teams with different QBs
But Tua is a QB, like Brees, that needs a clean pocket. As such IOL should be the most important position for him
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u/expellyamos 3d ago
Would've been a 3rd for Wilkins as well but he fell below the 25% snap count threshold