r/Eugene • u/starfishmantra • 2d ago
Are we good here in Eugene (earthquake risk)? jiggly
Another kind poster shared this in another recent thread, and I thought I'd repost it and get feedback.
Check out the map! We are in the yellow! https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/HEALTHYENVIRONMENTS/DRINKINGWATER/PLANREVIEW/Documents/seismic-map.pdf
If this map is correct, for some reason Eugene is relatively safe in terms of a magnitude 9 aka "THE BIG ONE" earthquake we are all due for. Any geologists want to share info on this?
My house is post and pier built, so I was told it would "bounce" and flex in an earthquake. I did read that flat slab houses are prone to having other issues like foundational cracking.
78
u/CommercialGur3015 2d ago
Eugene will be totally isolated for a period of weeks in a major cascadia event. Even if your house/dwelling is fine, do you have the ability to access water for drinking and hygiene, food, and other supplies available for weeks for everyone who resides with you?
43
u/mandelbrot_zoom 2d ago
I recently learned that in a disaster, EWEB will (try to) set up emergency water stations. Might be good to know the closest one to your home or work. https://www.eweb.org/projects/emergency-water-stations
14
u/YetiSquish 2d ago
Even transportation to those areas could be very challenging. I’m definitely keeping gallons of potable water available at my house
8
u/CatPhysicist 2d ago
That reminds me. I need to”refresh” my stored water. I don’t know how long it can stay stored but I like to empty/refill once a year.
5
u/MiuraJeff 2d ago edited 1d ago
When I worked for facilities at Lewis & Clark college the emergency water supply barrels had a small amount of chlorine added after one year, then the following year they were flushed out and refilled.
2
1
u/Agreeable-Resolve888 21h ago
My wife and I refresh our fifty gallons of stored water twice a year, adding a small amount of bleach to it, like 5 ml.
4
u/starfishmantra 2d ago
My local school has big signs for "emergency water station" on it. I just learned from that link that is what it's for! Very cool for EWEB.
3
u/Slut_for_Bacon 2d ago
That's nice, and use it if you can, but always plan on having to rely on just yourself and your own supplies, just in case.
2
u/Deep_Listen872 2d ago
Anyone have a good recommendation for what to put in an emergency kit? For example, what kind of receptacle and how much water should we store in them? How long does it last before we should pour it out and replace it?
3
u/CommercialGur3015 2d ago
Lane County has a great list with it broken down for easier shopping which is nice because it can get expensive. Water is tricky, and will depend on your storaage space and preferences. When I was in Eugene, I stored about 10 gallons and had a coupld water filters.
https://www.lanecounty.org/government/county_departments/emergency_management/prepare_now
2
40
u/Aolflashback 2d ago edited 2d ago
Hey OP. You will want to get earthquake insurance no matter what.
Eugene is fairly safe, but we have bridges and shit roads and shit infrastructure so everyone should be prepared for MONTHS of zero utilities.
Here is what you need think about:
zero utility use for months, at the most. This is a realistic projection. Springfield residents will remind you of the weeks some people went just due to ice.
your home won’t be the only place without utilities. Grocery stores, small markets, etc will not only have zero power but EVERYTHING will be on the floor. So, you can’t exactly walk in with a flashlight and cash and hope to get some cans of food.
bridges and roads will be out.
Power lines will be down (among other things) and an extreme hazard. Meanwhile, you can’t safely stay inside due to aftershocks so you need to find a safe shelter.
any water can be used to fill up your toilet and allow for flushing when utilities are down. If you live in an apartment complex, get a bucket and head over to the pool and grab some toilet flushing water. Luckily, we have rivers in town, too.
hate your neighbors? Don’t talk to them often? Get ready to be best friends with them. You will need them and they will need you. The entire community HAS to come together for people to survive.
prep like you’ll be camping in all forms of survival for weeks, months.
Again, get earthquake insurance. Read all the fine print. Earthquakes are generally not covered under a standard renters or home owners insurance policy. You’ll need additional coverage. Again, read the fine print. Not everything you own will be covered. You will need a place to live, possibly, so think about temporary shelter and what your insurance covers, etc etc.
Don’t sleep on this people. Get an earthquake kit. You’ll never be prepared 100000% and they can literally happen at anytime of the day or night, you could be separated from your entire family (kids are at school, you’re at work), have a plan!
- Someone who lived through a major earthquake, and still has PTSD from it. They’re no joke yall.
Edit to add: Here’s some state specific info on the subject https://www.oregon.gov/oha/ph/preparedness/prepare/pages/prepareforearthquake.aspx
Edit for another link add, factors re: home structure and earthquakes: https://www.earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/info-gen/prepare-preparer/eqresist-en.php
14
u/RomaCafe 2d ago
This gets discussed every now and then.
Here's a geologist living in Eugene who doesn't believe earthquake insurance is worth it.
0
u/Aolflashback 2d ago
That person seems to be using their opinion (and yes of course whatever their title is as well, I still have no idea what their full expertise and credentials are so hey) and conjecture as well as using their personal homes structure to tell people to not get earthquake insurance? Well, I just hope people make their own educated decision on that matter, and again, having lived through one, I’ll pick earthquake insurance any time.
I’ve seen a rows of homes that all looked similar and you’d see a few that were just flattened. So, sure, maybe this dude has a similarly built home, doesn’t mean anything for anyone else honestly. Earthquakes are some of the most unpredictable things and the damage they can cause is just as unpredictable.
11
u/RomaCafe 2d ago
No. They provided information in the field they are an expert in for why they don't believe it's needed for them, based on how our area would be impacted. Others can take that information and use it how they want.
I've lived through several myself. I'm not sure if that makes me more of an expert than a geologist.
9
u/GeoBrew 2d ago edited 2d ago
Just for a difference of opinion--I too am a geologist (in Eugene) and have earthquake insurance. My house is late 90s so it has all appropriate earthquake safety designs implemented but it is multiple stories and would be very expensive to re-build. The other poster is making an interpretation of expected earthquake damage in Eugene and making a financial decision. There is not scientific consensus on how big Cascadia will be or what the damage might look like here, but I am more in line with the opinion in that there's a *good probability of damage locally. Earthquake insurance is a financial decision, not one solely based on geologic expertise. If I had a small, single story frame house, I might not get insurance, but in my situation we think the risk is sufficient to warrant the expense.
1
u/RomaCafe 2d ago edited 2d ago
Good insight and thank you for sharing. Reddit (and other social networks) are desperately needing expert insight/opinions on topics like this in order to cut through the hysteria posts.
1
u/nogero 2d ago
Curious how much your EQ insurance costs?
3
u/GeoBrew 2d ago
Mine is $500/yr with a 15% deductible. The deductible is super high, but I understand that's common for EQ insurance and really, we'd only make a claim if our structure was no longer safe and had to be rebuilt. In general I'm risk averse, which is why we decided to have this coverage. Some people think the best case scenario will be what they experience, some people plan for the worst case. I'm generally in the latter camp.
11
u/starfishmantra 2d ago
We have earthquake insurance actually! It cost us $180 a year. I figured that was cheaper than a new house.
11
u/RottenSpinach1 2d ago
But does it come with a guarantee that the insurer will pay? I could see insurance companies simply refusing or declaring bankruptcy in the wake of a Cascadia event.
5
3
3
u/MonkeyFlowerFace 2d ago
Jesus. Now I'm scared. Gonna go stockpile TP, brb.
2
u/Aolflashback 2d ago
Don’t be scared, just be prepared! It will make things so much easier. The community WILL come together (there’s no way around it, everyone has to and will be looking out for each other) but the main thing is seriously utilities. You don’t think about them until you don’t have access to them.
4
u/MonkeyFlowerFace 2d ago
The "separated from your kids" part will never not be scary to me. But yes, I need to do some prepping for sure.
5
u/Aolflashback 2d ago edited 2d ago
Im truely sorry, I really am not trying to be an alarmist or anything like that, it just is the reality of the situation and again, I don’t think a lot of people think about those things.
I always go through what to do during an EQ with the people I live with. What are the best places in your home to duck and cover at? What if you’re in the shower at the time? Or asleep? The biggest thing for me is thinking what is currently on a shelf or in a cabinet and where it will be during and after an earthquake (broken on the floor) and for me, with my kitchen being right by the front door, you have to think will I be able to get outside without shoes if there’s glass everywhere and it’s 3am and the power is out so I can’t see?
It seems WILD to have to think about those things, trust me I know it sounds crazy and paranoid, but again it’s just the very real scenarios; what myself and others dealt with during the 90s quake (in Cali).
Edit: a word
1
u/joshmarinacci 2d ago
How would earthquake insurance help with any of the things you listed ?
2
u/Aolflashback 2d ago
Well, the other things I mentioned was a “while I have you here” on the subject of earthquakes. People think “things shake and break for a few seconds and then it’s over” but that is definitely not even the tip of what we will be dealing with if the “big one” hits or any bit EQ.
But EQ insurance on its own, many things. Did a pipe burst in your home and everything is flooded? Did your fireplace crumble off the side of your building? Did all of your dishes fly out of the cabinets and onto your kitchen floor? Did your fridge “walk” across your kitchen and mess up your floor? Did your tv fly off the wall and smash into your coffee? Did your bed literally fall apart? These are just some of the very real things that happen during earthquakes.
0
u/doug-fir 2d ago
Earthquake insurance? First, you house has to be earthquake ready, and few houses in the area are prepared, and doing it yourself is a lot of work. Second, earthquake insurance is expensive.
18
u/Critical-Problem-629 2d ago
I worked for the city of Salem about 5 - 6 years ago and our emergency preparedness rep was a geologist who used to work for FEMA.
So we go through the earthquake drills and we start bullshitting afterwards and we ask him how much this would actually help in an earthquake. He said it'd be fine in like a 5 to 7, but anything above that pretty much the entire PNW was fucked. The infrastructure wasn't built to withstand anything like that. Water would be poised by sewage and gas lines, roads and bridges would collapse left and right, etc etc.
He said the biggest issue would be the roads and bridges. That meant not getting out and no help getting in. Sure, they could helicopter or plane drop supplies, but there wouldn't be anywhere to really land for the military or FEMA to set up bases or shelters to get people out. The nearest help would me be hundreds of miles to the east, with no way to get there.
I asked him his honest assessment if we got hit by a 9. He said his home is set up with about 90 days of supplies for him and his wife. But he wouldn't expect any real help until 6 month or later. If at all, depending on the amount of damage. Apparently, there's a part of FEMA's plan that talks about just evacuating as many people as they can, but to otherwise abandon the Willamette Valley and Oregon/Washington coast because it would bankrupt the country to try and rebuild.
So, there's that.
9
u/RottenSpinach1 2d ago
This. I get shit on every time this topic comes up, but moving people away from the area will be the priority. You're not going to be allowed to hang around here for months without power and water.
15
u/Pwitchvibes 2d ago
One thing I've never heard anyone in Oregon mention to prepare for is 2 events at once. What if the big one happened during last year's ice storm? What if it happens at the height of fire season? Would you be able to escape or have shelter elsewhere?
1
u/Different-Trip-2724 1d ago
Whoa, that is anxiety invoking. Everything is frozen and then we have a 9.0 and no power to keep us warm? Fuuuuuck……
1
13
10
u/Somepeopleskidslol 2d ago
What most people fail to take into account are all the reservoirs that are above eugene... if a large earthquake happened eugene would be hit with a 20+ foot wall of water within about 30 mins. Years ago i saw a news deal about it.
13
u/SteveBartmanIncident 2d ago
There's no particular reason to assume one or multiple dam failures in a 9.0 megathrust. You're using language with far too much certainty.
That said, this possibility played a role in my decision to look for a house on a hill with low slide risk.
4
u/UnPrecidential 2d ago
And yet Riverbend Hospital was built, you know, along the river, below the dam. :(
1
u/Somepeopleskidslol 2d ago edited 2d ago
Absolutely there is have you looked at the national inventory of dams? You are speaking like someone that has zero knowledge on the subject. I simply referenced I saw it in a news article once. I just didn't elaborate that I also keep up on it since it is a very real threat and not just from earthquakes. I do however find it commical that the corps lists every reservoir above eugene as extreme risk of failure at anything 7.0 or above but I'm using too language with far to much certainty?
""Furthermore if it didn't play a part in your decision it would be odd to post about it as if it was a fairly important decision for you...""
Edit i misread so my above furthermore comment i retract.
5
u/SteveBartmanIncident 2d ago
My problem was your word choice - Eugene "would be hit" with a wall of water in the big one. It's possible, but it's not even the most likely outcome for the big one. If the next cascadia quake is a full zip 9.0, and if the trigger is on the south half of the zone, then the army corps sees a significant possibility of a dam failing. Conditional language. A possibility we should prepare for through policy.
-6
u/Somepeopleskidslol 2d ago
You took issue with.. lol you need a life.
2
5
u/weirdsearches 2d ago
https://www.sustaineugene.org/dam.html
∆ sharing this source that references the army core of engineers study on flood risk from the lookout point dam failure during a high pool event.
Of course to be taken with a grain of salt.
11
u/Bassnerdarrow 2d ago
There is nowhere safe in this country. You take the risk of hurricanes or tornadoes every year, harsh winters every year, wildfires every year or living in a place with potential for one big fuck all disaster like the PNW for Earthquake / Volcano.
If an earthquake is big enough to take out our bridge systems, no second hospital is going to help when it can't be staffed or accessed because it's likely just as damaged.
5
u/Independent_Step6069 2d ago
I like hurricanes and tornadoes more than earthquakes because you can pretty much always see them coming or know when the conditions are ripe to form them.
5
0
u/Grouchy-Age4859 2d ago
New Mexico is fairly safe.
4
u/Bassnerdarrow 2d ago
Lol except those pesky fires that burnt 1400 structures last year... https://youtu.be/JQew0KJumCo?si=oIUcL1PJr859sF95
1
2
u/Missmoneysterling 1d ago
Shit I just moved from there. It's soooo fucking hot and the violence/theft/homelessness is awful.
6
u/ChrisInBliss 2d ago
Why is Eugene "light" but all the surrounding area "moderate"?
That doesnt make sense to me.
22
u/Bud_McChud 2d ago
I went to a presentation by CRESCENT and other groups and this question came up. If I remember correctly it has to do with Eugene having a high clay content in its subsoil layers (or the opposite, I just remember that subsurface clay was the differentiator).
11
u/BendMortgageBrokers 2d ago
This is what I have heard as well. A lot of other areas like Portland they said the soil could basically liquify, but ours has a much better substrate and while there will be damage it won’t involve all of our houses sliding around and crumbling
5
13
u/ExceptionCollection 2d ago
Yep. Eugene’s soil isn’t quite perfect for seismic country but it’s closer than most. It has just enough cohesion to prevent liquefaction but also low enough rigidity to slow down the shear wave, which changes the response in much the same way a crumple zone on a car reduces the forces transmitted to a driver.
3
u/fuckeryizreal 2d ago
Liquefaction is a real fear of mine and this comment made me feel actual and immense relief in regards to the fear I also have surrounding the ‘big one’.
2
u/ExceptionCollection 2d ago
While I can’t say there are absolutely no sites in Eugene, as someone that designed buildings all over town - about 400 - I didn’t touch one.
Now Bellingham, they’re screwed if they’re downtown. Eugene? There are very few URM buildings there; wood’s been the preferred structural system for over a hundred years. I’d expect connections need updating to keep them from sliding off the foundation, yes, but that’s about it.
3
u/YetiSquish 2d ago
Opposite I’d reckon. Eugene and Fischer Formation are near shore marine sedimentary deposits so not as much that can turn into clays. Lots of clays in the hills around us as the feldspars in basalt weather into clays.
1
u/RetardAuditor 1d ago
One big reason is simply because they do sampling at a much higher resolution and level of detail in heavily populated areas compared to out in the country. I emailed the people who supplied the data for this map (DOGAMI) and thats what they said.
6
u/OculusOmnividens 2d ago
My understanding is that the major worry for us here will be logistical in nature. Plan an emergency food supply. Auguson Farms makes some good ones with a LONG shelf life (decade plus).
This advice is not comprehensive and you're free to ignore it.
6
u/Slut_for_Bacon 2d ago
Any household that doesn't have at minimum a month's worth of supplies to live on, is negligent. Please have a well stocked disaster kit. Please know how and when to shut off your gas line.
6
u/WinsdyAddams 2d ago
No. We can expect 5 minutes of shaking with the big quake. The impact will be felt in Eugene. If there are earthen dams and there are they will most likely fail and flood those areas. Just what they said at my Red Cross education when I got hired at UO. Red Cross has a lot of good information.
5
u/Quartzsite 2d ago
https://www.oregon.gov/oem/documents/oregon_resilience_plan_final.pdf
Oregon Resilience Plan, if it’s not already been shared.
3
u/Ichthius 2d ago
The new reservoirs eweb has build are earth quake proof. We won’t have tap water but we’ll have about 30 million gallons of water just in the south Eugene tanks. They’re designed to close off retaining their water.
Shelter, Electricity, Food and fuel will be a real problem.
All our fuel comes from a facility in Portland build on 150 year old land fill. That will be destroyed.
3
u/inspired5 2d ago
One thing no one has mentioned yet is that even if your house is still standing, every single window pane could well be broken. Consider how that would be in winter! And even in summer it ain't gonna be a picnic.
3
u/Tarflame_ 1d ago
Geologist here!
About to dump way too much info on yall! Just bear with me though!
We unfortunately do not know for sure that the “Big One” is ever going to happen. I don’t know how much you know, but I’ll give some basic knowledge to help us better understand the processes. Simplified, when we have oceanic and continental tectonic plates converging below us, such is the case in Oregon with the Juan De Fuca and North American plates, we are always at risk for volcanic or seismic activity.
The Juan De Fuca plate to our West is made of dense oceanic crust, and our North American plate is made of less dense continental crust. When the two collide, the denser oceanic crust submerges below the Continental plate, pretty deep below where we are standing right now. But of course, rocks are generally pretty brittle, and we know that when they are put under enough strain they eventually break. The problem is, it’s difficult for us to tell how much stress the materials at our convergent boundary are under.
Put your hands together, turn them to a 45 degree angle, push against each other, and try to slide your hands in opposite ways at the same time. You’ll notice that the more pressure you add to pushing them together, the more difficult it will be for them to slide past each other, though if you try hard enough, eventually they will suddenly slide. This can help visualize our problem, as we don’t know if the plates are semi-effortlessly sliding past one another or not. There is a large possibility that the plates are having a hard time sliding, and may at any point reach that critical stress point where the materials suddenly break, triggering an extremely high magnitude seismic event.
So the question of whether we will be affected by it? If it happens, emphasis on if, we will most certainly be heavily impacted by it, from Cali to Portland, things could be catastrophic. Of course, the further away we are from the epicenter of this specific seismic event the better, some places will potentially get it worse, but things could be horrible for us.
I’m glad you mentioned the structural elements of your home, because this is extremely important for everyone to be aware of if we are caught in an earthquake. Studies are still being done to determine how best we can build structures to withstand seismic events, but a general rule of thumb to go by is that wood is better than concrete. Traditional wood framed buildings will withstand the seismic movements much better than most concrete structures, unless the rebar/concrete is done in a really specific way, so your home should do a bit better. For the most part, concrete will eventually crack.
It is so so so important to be aware of the risks posed by brick buildings, as a brick wall holds absolutely zero chance in a seismic event. There are too many instances of brick buildings falling immediately during earthquakes and killing everyone inside them, so be aware of that.
I apologize for the length of this reply, but I believe it is important for earth scientists to share this info with everyone we can. I included the first few paragraphs because while it is good to be mindful and prepared that the “Big One” may happen, I have noticed many people in my life have begun to say every day that “we are all inevitably going to be wiped out by this thing any day now”, and that just isn’t true. We should be mindful, and practice risk mitigation techniques, but we do not need to live in fear on a daily basis. It is hard as a geologist to admit that we don’t know for sure, but that’s the truth. Yes, It COULD happen today, but it could happen 200 years from now, or never!
I hope that I helped give some sort of answer to your question a little bit, let me know if you want to have a more in depth discussion!
In short, Eugene COULD get hit really bad, your house will stand a little longer than others, and avoid brick buildings if it does happen!
2
u/Grouchy-Age4859 2d ago
Your house may survive but expect a few months without power, gas or water and bridges out for years.
3
u/nogero 2d ago
A lot of dire predictions in these comments, but people should also consider Eugene will be 80 miles away from the epicenter. If you compare to other historical quakes, look at what happened 80 miles away.
3
u/Missmoneysterling 1d ago
Oakland was 80 miles from the epicenter of the world series earthquake in 89 and it got fucked. I was there. And that was only a 7.1.
0
u/nogero 1d ago
Oakland has Hayward fault running right under it and it part of the San Andreas system. Maybe I should have said distance from fault instead of epicenter. 80 miles is minimum for epicenter of our fault. Most likely EQ won't happen at that closest point. I don't think it is quite apples and apples comparison. Even then, millions did not die, all bridges didn't crumble, etc.
1
u/Missmoneysterling 1d ago
True. I also wonder how bad we would be affected in Eugene since the fault line is so far away. I mean, it might only be a 7 or so also.
1
u/notime4morons 1d ago
Yeah but a 7 that goes on for as much as 5 minutes, the Loma Prieta 7 lasted for all of 30 seconds.
2
2
u/ComprehensiveData327 2d ago
The only thing that makes we somewhat worried about the earthquake in the Eugene area are the dams up river, if there is a catastrophic failure then the valley could get a huge flash flood that would cause more damage than the earthquake itself.
2
u/fistfullofham 1d ago
Here's your annual reminder that Eugene has a community of level headed people that focus on being prepared, and providing assistance, in the event of emergency.
The Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) does initial trainings, and regular monthly meetings to maintain education and community cohesion. This is all available to the public. This is a program that is part of FEMA.
You don't need to reinvent the wheel of emergency preparedness. You also don't have to do it alone.
1
u/bowls4noles 2d ago
No clue honestly & random side question for everyone:
Do yall pay for earthquake insurance?
1
1
u/RomaCafe 2d ago
For reference, as this topic is brought up a few times a year ... here’s a geologist living in Eugene that does not believe earthquake insurance is worth it.
1
u/brickwallas 2d ago
If we have an earth quake here like the one they scientists are predicting any time then we can kiss our asses goodbye
1
u/gelatinous_pellicle 2d ago
Rumor is that everything west of i5 will be fucked and east of 5 will be ok so it just depends on what side of town you live on.
1
0
0
u/InternationalCost234 2d ago
I would imagine based on the kinds of soil under Eugene & Springfield we will have quite a bit of ground liquefaction.
0
-1
u/OreganoTimeSage 2d ago
As long as I have enough food and water for 2 weeks I feel pretty okay. Whatever happens I'll get through it.
-20
u/Longload1 2d ago
Waste your time, money and effort all you want. You’re definitely worried about it because you’re on here crying about how much you’re going to be affected. And I’ve got news for you all. You’re wasting your life trying to prepare for something that isn’t going to happen and isn’t happening worldwide! Just live your life and be concentrated on being a good person.
-39
2d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
13
u/Responsible-Buddy441 2d ago
It's 2025 and you're actually still saying climate change isn't real... This whole reply reeks of a head buried in the sand.
11
u/danielediabla 2d ago
You literally can’t know that. It can happen at any time. It can happen tomorrow, next week, next year or in 100 years from now. Also, there’s a huge difference between being worried and being prepared (physically and mentally).
3
107
u/lilvoodoomama 2d ago
All of the top researchers at UO’s CRESENT believe Eugene will be severely impacted by the big one. There’s no way we can’t be.