r/tuesday Conservative Nov 15 '24

Kamala Harris Was a Replacement-Level Candidate

https://www.natesilver.net/p/kamala-harris-was-a-replacement-level
32 Upvotes

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75

u/upvotechemistry Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

She was fine playing a poorly dealt hand. Replacement level was a blessing after the July debate.

Biden should have never run for reelection.

19

u/epicfail1994 Left Visitor 🦄 Nov 16 '24

Yeah she did an ok job considering- but she was kinda fucked from the start with Biden running in the first place and no one really wanting her but not having an alternative.

I thought Biden did a pretty decent job first few years, would have ranked him as a middle of the road president. But after he ran again and screwed things up, he's bottom quartile for me

0

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24 edited Nov 16 '24

She was fine playing a poorly dealt hand

The poorly-dealt hand being the fact that she had statements on record supporting everything that Bernie Sanders supported?

It's the opposite. Democrats were dealt a poor hand by their rabid supporters who couldn't stand a center-left candidate like Biden.

If we're talking a candidate who got dealt a poor hand, it was obviously Clinton. She definitely played some things poorly, but she also inherited a Democratic party that was bankrupt and in the worst shape since 1928.

12

u/upvotechemistry Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

It's the opposite. Democrats were dealt a poor hand by their rabid supporters who couldn't stand a center-left candidate like Biden.

Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with you. A lot of the "supporters" you are thinking about aren't rabid democrats - they hate democrats.

Clinton raised a gazillion dollars in 2016. Her problem is the problem with the party: they are stuck between a left that hates them, and an educated liberal wing that controls the party nominating process, but doesn't have enough votes to win Presidential elections.

What the party needs is a culturally moderate populist. They need another Bill Clinton. They need to win back working class voters that left after Clinton, and they have to win back working class Obama -> Trump voters.

2

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24

A lot of the "supporters" you are thinking about aren't rabid democrats - they hate democrats.

And the Republican base hates Republicans for not being psycho enough. Point being these are people who staunchly support leftist causes and the Democratic party attempts to appease them. Yes, they are Democrat voters.

they are stuck between a left that hates them, and an educated liberal wing that controls the party nominating process, but doesn't have enough votes to win Presidential elections.

Here's the real problem. Both Clinton and Harris attempted to appease the unpleasable voter base and lost because of it.

Both Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris were the most progressive nominees in US history with Harris being even more progressive. Clinton's entire campaign was based on around socially progressive issues. Harris has, on record, a more progressive voting history than Bernie Sanders.

Yes, in spite of the fact that they still didn't vote for Harris, it was the far left that pushed Biden out of the 2024 race.

It's really a lesson to both parties: no matter how much you try to please your unpleasable base, they'll still vote against you. Republicans only won 2024 because their base voters believed that Trump was essentially a vote against Republicans.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

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0

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-7

u/bearcatjoe Right Visitor Nov 16 '24 edited Nov 16 '24

Among the worst major party candidates in my lifetime. I think Hillary or Dukakis are a distant #2 & #3?

29

u/Nelliell Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

I am too young to remember Dukakis, but Hillary was a terrible candidate and a perfect example of how out of touch the DNC has become. Worse than having no charisma she had negative charisma and a "I know better than you" entitled attitude. And I say that as someone who had voted GOP downballot until 2016 who voted for her and hated it. Trump, MAGA, and his friendliness with Russia even back then really felt off to me. I trusted him even less than Clinton and that's saying a lot. Very nearly sat that one out, but I'd voted in every presidential election since I turned 18 and I didn't want to not vote and regret it more.

I hope - I truly hope - that there's still some part of the GOP that isn't MAGA but I haven't been able to vote red since 2016. Way too many candidates campaign on Trump's coattails and that morally goes against what I believe in.

16

u/bearcatjoe Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

I'd categorize Trump as a bad candidate, but he's also won two elections.

16

u/Nelliell Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

Objectively he is. It's just in 2 out of 3 presidential elections he's been up against someone worse and he had the polished facade of an accomplished no-nonsense businessman from The Apprentice going into 2016. (Obviously he had his string of failed businesses, shorted contractors, and legal issues as well but they didn't seem to gain traction or be as well known outside of NY.)

9

u/flugenblar Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

I don’t quite agree. People know Trump now, they know his secrets and his issues. But he succeeded in convincing many people that the US was in trouble because of the Democrats. He was very good at that. Also, Harris and Biden both faired poorly at acknowledging the economic struggles many people are facing, while Trump echoed or exaggerated those criticisms.

6

u/Nelliell Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

For 2024 I'd absolutely agree. My original comment was largely in the context of 2016.

3

u/flugenblar Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Got it. Just reread your post. Yeah, in this day and age I don’t know how people miss the abundance of information floating around for every presidential candidate, I think there was a lot of anti-Hillary sentiment, manufactured by Trump or lingering from the Clinton administration. People are a lot more judgmental of women it seems to me.

6

u/psunavy03 Conservative Nov 16 '24

2024 was not a referendum on the American people approving of Trump. It was just proof that Bill Clinton’s campaign in the 90s had it right: “it’s the economy, stupid.”

I’m not doing badly for myself and I’m still making less money adjusted for inflation than I did in 2019. I can only imagine how it must feel living paycheck to paycheck. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign was pissing on those people’s legs and telling them it was raining.

5

u/flugenblar Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

I agree, the Dems spent so much time trying to generate anti-Trump sentiment, which I am OK with, but they ignored the economic issues and lost the gamble.

Trump so normalizes being bad/corrupt that people weren’t swayed by stories of his bad deeds, if anything they were probably getting sick of hearing about… democracy being on the line. And maybe it is, but Harris lost.

4

u/flugenblar Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Interesting comment. I’m getting on in years and I can personally remember a lot of presidential candidates over the years, and I would say that the #1 ‘I know better than you’ example is Donald J Trump. I agree that Hillary Clinton was very much unliked, or untrusted maybe, but I think it was for other reasons.

6

u/Nelliell Right Visitor Nov 16 '24 edited Nov 16 '24

Oh, absolutely, I'd agree now. Everything is "I know the most" "I have the best" etc. with him. Anything negative is fake, failing, or rigged. But in 2016 - while he already had that attitude - Clinton was disconnected from the voters and acted rather smug about it. The impression I got was that she thought she had the election in the bag and the actual election was but a formality. I think her and her team vastly underestimated Trump but also underestimated how unlikeable she was to a large portion of the country. Granted, Dems will point to a 30 year long smear campaign against her but she didn't do herself any favors.

This election the economic issues absolutely walloped Dems as so many people are struggling to make ends meet while Dems were trumpeting Bidenomics and how strong the country had recovered and the stock market. It was a disconnected message from what lower/middle class are actually dealing with and Trump was able to capitalize on that. I still think he's a bad candidate and that Harris was dealt a pretty awful hand, but I wish she had done more to distance and distinguish herself from Biden and to address the economic issues affecting Americans that are not rich.

On a more personal note, Trump was appealing to voters like myself. It's been hard to get groceries for my family the last couple of years. Often we've budgeted down to under $10 in checking, nothing in savings, and coasted into the next paycheck with the gas light on in the car and praying nothing came up. We've had to tactically pay bills based on who will get upset if it's a few days late. Despite meeting net and gross income limits for SNAP we were declined. And I can see how easy it would be to blame Biden, or to blame Harris for how hard it has been. But I also understand how Covid affected the supply chain, the greed of some companies taking advantage of that to jack up prices, and that our struggles echo what a lot of the world has had to go through. Trump's promises about making it better are empty air.

1

u/flugenblar Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Totally agree. I was just in the AskEconomist sub and an ‘expert’ was trying to explain to me that while the cumulative total CPI went up 22% during the pandemic, average cumulative wage increases were 27%

The post might as well have been written by the Harris/Biden campaign! Seriously. So out of touch.

4

u/JerseyJedi Centre-right Nov 16 '24

We saw that kind of rhetoric non-stop in r/neoliberal for the past two years. Some of us kept trying to get the yuppies in that subreddit to understand that working class people are having a hard time (a difficult concept for the upwardly-mobile yuppies in r/neoliberal and the DNC to relate to). 

Obviously Trump is NOT the solution, but it’s easy to see how he hoodwinked desperate people into believing he is. The Democrats and the media should have taken this into account, but they clearly just assumed that they could simply coast to victory on a message of “but Wall Street is doing great!” and “your grocery bills aren’t high! That’s just ‘vibes’!” 🙄🤦‍♂️

5

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24

but Hillary was a terrible candidate and a perfect example of how out of touch the DNC has become

Hillary outran the generic ballot by 3 points. House and Senate Republicans won the popular vote. Trump was literally the only Republican to lose the popular vote that year.

2

u/Viper_ACR Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Harris wasn't as bad as Hillary tbh. Hillary was legitimately the worst candidate ever

2

u/WeaknessOne9646 Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

There’s a lot to not like about Hillary but I don’t think anyone could credibly doubt her intellect or capability

I can’t imagine Hillary doing something like this ever for example:

https://x.com/ZaidJilani/status/1850273075217981825

Maybe as a candidate it’s debatable who’s better but I think Hillary would make for a more competent president

1

u/Viper_ACR Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Oh yeah I remember when Zaid reported that. Yeah that seems kind of on point for the shit Harris would pull

2

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24

I think Hillary or Dukakis are a distant #2 & #3?

This is Gore erasure. Clinton handed him a blueprint to win and he couldn't even win his own state.

4

u/psunavy03 Conservative Nov 16 '24

Gore still came with in a gnat's ass of the White House. We're also so numbed to scandals post-Trump that it's hard for some people to remember what a Big Fucking Deal it was to a lot of folks that Bill got caught cheating on Hillary by getting blowjobs from an intern and then perjuring himself over it.

2

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24

Big Fucking Deal it was to a lot of folks that Bill got caught cheating on Hillary by getting blowjobs from an intern and then perjuring himself over it.

I fully understand that.

It's no excuse to lose your own state, which you already won as a Senator previously. Clinton, Dukakis and Harris all managed to win their home states, at least .

4

u/WeaknessOne9646 Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

Holding the WH for 12 years is not easy for any party regardless of candidate

1

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 16 '24

Possibly (though not historically true), but that's a silly measuring stick considering that would also give Hillary Clinton an out as well.

3

u/WeaknessOne9646 Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

Yes which is why I cut Hillary some slack. Though 2016 Trump was a weaker candidate than 2000 Bush. Also unlike this year the 2016 race was considerably more of a stroke of luck for Trump. Play that night over 10 times and I think Trump only wins maybe 4/10.

Just because Clinton gave Gore a blueprint to win doesn't mean it should be discounted that his discretions also hurt him (as a country we were more sensitive to that stuff then)

3

u/Burrito_Fucker15 Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

To be fair to Gore, he did overcome far more of a polling deficit than either Clinton or Dukakis had to.

In April 2000, Gore was down 6 points. In June, he was down by around 12 in certain polls. He turned that into one of the closest elections since the Gilded Age.

Clinton, meanwhile, held an advantage, and for a lot of the time, a huge advantage, in polling over Trump for the entire campaign. Dukakis led Bush by 17 points in July. Dukakis continued leading him easily into August. And he lost in the largest landslide of the past 36 years.

I do agree that Gore fumbled the campaign and could’ve won, but I think Clinton and Dukakis fumbled it more than he did.

1

u/TheDemonicEmperor Social Conservative Nov 17 '24

Clinton, meanwhile, held an advantage, and for a lot of the time, a huge advantage, in polling over Trump for the entire campaign

See, this is just revisionist history and talk from the Trump crowd that Clinton and Biden were a lock for a landslide election according to the polls.

In fact, if we're using the same trend that we're using for 1988, Clinton spent most of her time around 40%. It's just Trump spent most of polling at 35%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections

I also don't know how much we can trust 1988 polling considering it was so long ago.

5

u/MyUshanka Left Visitor Nov 16 '24

Hillary was worse than Harris. I wasn't around for Dukakis.

To further the baseball analogies, Hillary had bases loaded with one out and hit into a double play. Kamala had to swing for the fences as a 2-out pinch hitter and flied out to center.

Same outcome, different circumstances.

1

u/bearcatjoe Right Visitor Nov 16 '24

Eesh.

Who do you downvoters think were worse major party nominees?