r/tories • u/LeChevalierMal-Fait Clarksonisum with Didly Squat characteristics • 16d ago
Labours average polling lead since the GE
3
u/CountLippe 👑 Monarchist 🇬🇧Unionist 16d ago
What's the source on the graph?
3
u/LeChevalierMal-Fait Clarksonisum with Didly Squat characteristics 16d ago
11
u/Federico84cj 16d ago
It's normal for governments to lose approval at the beginning of the mandate. They are not governing well, but this chart should not worry them too much.
13
u/LeChevalierMal-Fait Clarksonisum with Didly Squat characteristics 16d ago edited 16d ago
maybe come mid-term, but go look up previous polling data yourself
I can't find any party that has slumped so quickly
Boris 2019 - five months later he is polling *better than he was at the GE* by about a point so a lead of 12
Cameron in 2010 five months later he is polling at +4 ish over labour which is slightly down on a GE where he leads them by +7
Blair in 97 - five months in labour lead is +40! compare to a GE of +12.5 perhaps a shy tory effect or poor polling but surely we cant say its normal for governments to lose approval rapidly.
Most of the time governments appear to actually get a honeymoon period where voters are willing to by and large give them the benefit of the doubt
13
u/smalltalk2bigtalk 16d ago
Most of the time governments appear to actually get a honeymoon period where voters are willing to by and large give them the benefit of the doubt
Voters are feeling impatient and this mismatches the long-term strategy of Labour government. They could lie to us, but that's already been tried.
5
u/BlackJackKetchum Josephite 16d ago
Mark Pack, Britain’s most useful LibDem, has a polling database going back to ‘45. I’ve combined the whole bang shoot into a single spreadsheet, and will investigate……
3
u/Federico84cj 16d ago
Interesting, I hadn't considered the honeymoon effect. There has been a lot of backtracking on manifesto promises, which combines poorly with the absence of charisma in the leadership of the party. I guess you could say that voters were never really in love with Labour in the first place.
2
u/Gatecrasher1234 Verified Conservative 15d ago
It is dire.
I don't know anyone who voted for labour, of it they did, they are not admitting to it.
The Labour election campaign slogan should have been "promise little, deliver less".
Irrespective of what your views are, their support for the WASPI women while in opposition and then backtracking on the recommendation of the ombudsman is embarrassing as are the comments by David Lammy on Trump.
Never in my 65 years have a bunch of absolute amateurs been in power.
Even a donkey has more intelligence than this lot.
3
u/rosencrantz2016 15d ago
I don't think those things matter, Labour didn't promise to support the WASPI women and Lammy said nothing worse than many Trump converts including his own VP have said about the guy, so that won't have repercussions.
21
u/major_clanger Labour 16d ago
Don't think I can remember a time when a party's approval sank so much, so fast (excluding Liz Truss).
Think part of it is the tough times incumbents are having of things, due to the poor economy, and the other is they're just bad at politics, both the superficial side, and the material side. I mean, pensioners are strictly off limits, it's a golden rule that's been followed by everyone since these guys became a dominant voting block.
My dominating hope is that they're able to push through serious reforms to the planning system before they leave office, no other party will dare to do it, and we're even more stuffed if we don't do it.