r/neoliberal • u/BastianMobile NATO • Nov 17 '24

Pollster Ann Selzer ending election polling, moving 'to other ventures and opportunities' News (US)

https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2024/11/17/ann-selzer-conducts-iowa-poll-ending-election-polling-moving-to-other-opportunities/76334909007/
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u/justbuildmorehousing Norman Borlaug Nov 17 '24

Ill forever be shocked that ‘the best pollster in America’ missed her final poll by 17 points when she had been so accurate every other year. Man I thought that (and some other indicators) meant we were finally getting a general polling error in our favor

Now we have a pedo getting nominated for AG

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u/creaturefeature16 Nov 17 '24

I think that's why a lot of leftists are falling to the same election fraud conspiracies as Trump supporters did. Between polls like Selzer, Jon Ralston election prediction (first time he was wrong in 10 years), Trump's weird comments about "we don't even need your votes" and acting like he didn't even care towards the end...it seems surprising that he won.

But at the end of the day, I think the polls were indeed correct this time. It was very close with a MOE that bent in Trump's favor....CNN did a bunch of forecasting and showed this exact scenario playing out if the polling error was in Trump's favor.

Turns out: the American electorate is far more binary than we thought, and having your unpopular candidate drop out of the race in the last 3 months if an election, only to be replaced by another unpopular candidate that nobody asked for, demotivates a big chunk of your base.

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u/Kindly-Weather-571 Nov 17 '24

How do we square the notion of an unpopular candidate against Harris running ahead of Dems in swing states

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u/LeoCrow Nov 17 '24

The answer is, Trump is not unpopular. Polarizing, but not unpopular.

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u/zth25 European Union Nov 17 '24

He is unpopular, there are many Trump voters who dislike him but still vote for him in the end. The question is, why do these people think Democrats are even worse?

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u/ArcFault NATO Nov 17 '24

Bc prices high, vote the bums out.