Opinion | The Coming War Nobody Is Talking About

[u/Cook_0612]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/26/opinion/ethiopia-somalia-conflict.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

[u/Cook_0612]

Trouble has horns to hold but not tails.

This Somali proverb, suggesting that disaster can be prevented but not easily controlled, feels very apt for East Africa right now. Trouble has certainly arrived. Thanks to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions and reckless designs, the Horn of Africa is on the cusp of a war that would imperil the region and rebound against the rest of the world. It must be stopped before it’s too late.

The catalyst for the conflict is Mr. Abiy’s obsession with making Ethiopia a coastal state. Last year, he declared that Ethiopia could not stay landlocked and must have access to the sea, either by negotiation or by force. Somalia, the weakest of the five coastal countries that border Ethiopia, was the obvious target. On Jan. 1, Mr. Abiy duly signed a memorandum of understanding with the president of Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway republic in northwestern Somalia. In exchange for officially recognizing Somaliland, Ethiopia would gain a 12-mile naval base on the Gulf of Aden. Mr. Abiy would have his coast.

This was a clear violation of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, recalling Ethiopia’s destructive history of meddling in the country. Somalia immediately rejected the memorandum and mounted a diplomatic offensive, explaining to regional states and international powers that Ethiopia was seeking control of Somali territory through illegal means. The United Nations, the African Union, the United States and the European Union all backed Somalia’s position, emphasizing the necessity of respecting established boundaries and national sovereignty.

Yet despite international pressure, particularly from the Biden administration, Mr. Abiy has remained resolute. He seems to believe that now is the right moment to carry out his plan, as Somalia grapples with an extremist insurgency and the American government is distracted by elections and embroiled in conflicts in the Middle East and Europe. A possible victory for Donald Trump, who Mr. Abiy apparently hopes will either support or be indifferent to his actions, is another boon.

Tensions, bubbling away all year, have escalated in recent weeks. In a display of power, Ethiopia sent its troops to Somalia twice in June, setting off complaints from Somalia to the United Nations Security Council. In July, a local militia in Somalia looted two truckloads of weapons and ammunition sent from Ethiopia, suggesting that arms have made their way into the country, too.

Somalia, for its part, threatened to expel Ethiopian troops from the African peacekeeping forces in the country and, in a bold move, approved a defense pact with Egypt in July — adding to one it signed earlier in the year with Turkey. Ankara has stepped in to mediate but has been unable to find a solution. With both sides at loggerheads, the region is sitting on a time bomb.

War would be devastating. Involving rival and well-armed nations, ethnic communities, religious groups and international backers, conflict would bring bloodshed and disaster to both countries. Somalia, slowly recovering from a devastating three-decade civil war, would scarcely be able to bear it. Ethiopia is already mired in multiple conflicts within its borders — in its Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions — and is facing conflict on its Eritrean and Sudanese borders. Another front, stretching thousands of miles, could bring the country to collapse.

The region, already racked by the war in Sudan, would become even more unstable. Conflict could draw in Red Sea states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Sudan, Djibouti and Eritrea, all of which consider the body of water essential for their national security. The United States, China and some European nations already have a military presence in the Red Sea; countries like Turkey, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have lately entered the fray. The region could quickly become a dangerous battlefield for global and regional powers.

For all its precariousness, East Africa is vital for international commerce and security. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea connect Asia to Europe and the Americas, while the Horn serves as Asia’s gateway to the whole African continent. By disrupting key maritime routes, war in the area would endanger global trade. Equally worrying, it would also revive Islamic extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab, which has already claimed to have recruited thousands of young Somalis to fight the Ethiopians. An unstable East Africa poses a risk to the entire world.

Time is short: Another effort at mediation failed this month. To prevent the region from descending into catastrophic conflict, the world — led by the United States — must communicate to Mr. Abiy that his expansionist ambitions won’t be tolerated. Ethiopia, like any other landlocked state, should seek commercial access to the sea through cooperation and economic integration, not deals with secessionists. Washington, which has invested greatly in the region, must also exert pressure on the leaders of East African countries to promote dialogue, as well as try to reconcile Somalia and Somaliland.

It won’t be easy. But the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden are too important to become another war zone, and East Africa is too fragile for reckless adventures. The world must hold this trouble by the horns. Because once it takes off, there will be no tail to restrain it by.

!ping AFRICA&FOREIGN-POLICY

[u/BlackCat159 → u/Cook_0612]

Abiy Ahmed

Did you mean Nobel Peace Prize Recipient Abiy Ahmed?

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[u/Cook_0612 → u/BlackCat159]

A certain point the Nobel Peace Prize has to lose its aspirational qualities, surely.

[u/SteveFoerster → u/Cook_0612]

That happened before I was born, and I'm old.

[u/Cook_0612 → u/SteveFoerster]

maybe I should have mentioned I was saying that in an increasingly panicked and shrill voice

[u/Dangerous-Basket1064 → u/Cook_0612]

To prevent the region from descending into catastrophic conflict, the world — led by the United States — must communicate to Mr. Abiy that his expansionist ambitions won’t be tolerated

The problem is that the world would definitely tolerate it. We tolerated their war in Tigray, we're tolerating the genocidal violence in Sudan, and for all practical purposes we're tolerating the Houthi's direct assault on the international trade order.

America and its allies could talk a big game, but what would the Biden or Harris administrations be willing to do to actually add muscle to any call for Abiy to change course?

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

We could, but we probably should not.

American diplomats should seek a solution to this conflict that does not end in war, but Somaliland and Puntland have been de facto independent of Somalia for a long, long time now, and Ethiopia’s actions here—while flouting the letter of international law—are more compliant with the spirit of the law than this article makes out to be.

Somalia would be better off if it would try to coax its errant, better-governed provinces back to it by solving its longstanding issues of clannishness, terrorism, and poor government, rather than issuing threats of war (and, in all likelihood, backdoor threats to the US that it will cease cooperation unless its rights are defended) to a country it cannot afford to fight.

Delaying transfers of territory until cooler heads are in charge of all nations and proto-nations involved is perhaps within American diplomatic power, and Ethiopia’s desire to control a small stretch of coast can plausibly be met without necessitating actual annexation of any territory.

[u/Holditfam → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Allowing Ethopia to annex Somalia's land which every country recognises is theirs is a pretty deep rabbithole which the world should not go down

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Holditfam]

I agree outright annexation should be avoided, although it is not clearly annexation, given that the de facto governing authority is Somaliland, not Somalia, and they are selling it.

If you reread my final paragraph, I suggest that a plausible goal the US can strive for is a temporary lease on the order of decades which will hopefully put the issue of annexation vs. land swap after the issue of Somaliland independence (or not). At the very least, cooler, less warmongering heads may be seated at the table in some decades time.

This would leave all parties somewhag unsatisfied, as Somaliland would lose some of the certainty a land sale grants as to its independence, Somalia would worry about future annexation and the increasing international recognition of its nominally subordinate province, and Ethiopia would not secure in perpetuity the sea access it so desperately wants.

Still, no sides want a war, and an unhappy peace may be well worth it.

[u/AnachronisticPenguin → u/Holditfam]

Maybe in the short term, but not letting land be exchanged by a bunch of countries whose borders were mostly set up by colonial powers is also a recipe for disaster.

[u/BOQOR → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Puntland is opposed to secession. Somaliland is not a viable independent state because it lacks the consensus on secession from Somalia that existed in Eritrea and South Sudan when they seceded from Ethiopia and Sudan respectively. In 2023, Somaliland lost 40% of the territory it claims to the SSC-Khaatumo interim administration which is opposed to secession and wants to be a federal state that is part of Somalia a la Puntland. The Fight for Independence Has Drawn Many Somalis From the Diaspora to Las Anod

Ethiopia has no leg to stand on. If it actually recognizes Somaliland and establishes a naval base on the Gulf of Aden; then Somalia will likely go back to funding and serving as a safe base for Ethiopia’s various rebel groups especially the ONLF and OLA.

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/BOQOR]

I mean, all this suggests is that the claimed territory of Somaliland should not perfectly align with any international recognition of their territory, which is rather normal. Borders take awhile to work out, and nationalists are always incentivized to maximize their claims.

I’m not sure what you mean by “Ethiopia has no leg to stand on.” Yes they do. They are a country of sufficient status to play the game of national recognition, and Somaliland has been independent for longer than it was ever part of Somalia. That’s a strong case for the acceptability of their actions in the international arena, even if there is also a strong case against them.

Further bolstering Ethiopia is the fact that they are a country of sufficient military force to cow Somalia, and if Somalia responds as you suggested, that would be casus belli for an Ethiopian military response. Of course, that’s not to say Ethiopia recognizing an errant province isn’t also a casus belli, just that Somalia has precious little ability to actually win a war against their larger and industrializing neighbor.

[u/BOQOR → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Somaliland was given the opportunity at various meeting with the FGS to limit discussions to areas of northern Somalia inhabited by the Isaaq clan, they have categorically refused. They have even refused to sit down with the federal government's negotiation team if it includes anyone who is from the north. This is basically crippling the federal government's ability to negotiate, as parliament has made it clear that the president cannot discriminate against northern unionists when naming the team. Those working for the federal gov who are most knowledgeable and can best negotiate are from the north, Somaliland does not want them at the table.

Btw I don't think Ethiopia is afraid of Somalia, at all. What they are afraid of is the precedent recognizing Somaliland would set for the Somali Region and the Oromo Region, regions with the right to invoke secession via Article 39.

BTW You probably shouldn't believe Ethiopia's economic figures. The Economist

[u/Amtays → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

Those are all internal conflicts though, for better or worse messing with other states borders and sovereignty is taken much more seriously

[u/Superfan234 → u/Cook_0612]

I feel for Africa. It normally is the last priority of everyone, and these days with the war on Ucraine and Israel, they are even more left out then usual...😪

[u/realsomalipirate → u/Cook_0612]

I hope folks here start to understand that Somaliland isn't what their aggressive propaganda says it is (it's an authoritarian state and it would just balkanize Somalia even further) and maybe westerners will hopefully stop cheering on it separating it from the rest of Somalia.

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/realsomalipirate]

I’m always willing to read more about this issue, but why should the de facto independent government of Somaliland be prevented from having international recognition?

Authoritarianism and Balkanization don’t particularly come into it for me. There are plenty of authoritarian states in the world; I don’t typically believe they should be annexed into their neighbors. And Balkanization, while bad, is typically the lesser evil. After all, it was in the actual Balkans, where Kosovar and Bosnian independence from Serbia was certainly better than the alternative.

[u/DependentAd235 → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Especially considering the mess that the rest of the country is. Devolution isn’t inherently bad. It’s a very circumstantial thing

[u/I_miss_Chris_Hughton → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Imagine the precedent. "If a government is failing, regions can immediately break away if they're more stable".

You'd immediately have Wagner mercenaries squatting in regions of the Congo, backing up despots who now claim THEY are more stable and demand recognition. A states dissolution is a big thing to impose. Kosovo only got independence really because it was clear that the serbs would not govern it at all appropriately. Somalialand doesnt have that

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/I_miss_Chris_Hughton]

I mean, yeah, the precedent already exists in the Balkans, and it’s not a bad comparison.

And your use of “immediately” forces a discontinuity between your statement and Somaliland, which has been independent since 1991. At some point, it’s time to give up—if a mercenary government can last that long, it’d probably be time to give in as well.

I guess I’d also add that if your claim is that Somalia has governed anywhere appropriately—especially a province with a different colonial history that was an independent state until 1960–then there are precious few poorly governed nations across the present or past world.

[u/jadebenn → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Like, the Somaliland government has now existed longer under its unrecognized autonomous state than as part of a unified Somalian state. It's really a ridiculous claim to act like it's equivalent.

I get the real reason people aren't rushing to recognize them - there are inter-tribal tensions in Somaliland too, and while they're not as debilitating as down south, the whole unionist rebellion in Las Anod shows the cracks in the endeavor that could erupt if British Somaliland borders were recognized (which is why they probably shouldn't be).

Still, I have like absolutely no patience for all the Somalian nationalists who think it's any more realistic to bring Somaliland into the state when it's also clear that Hargesia is never going to agree to do so unless it's by force. And it's always because of this idea that Somalia "has" to be this big Somalian ethnostate because they share a language and culture, because a Greater Somalia will be "powerful." It boggles my mind because the last time they acted on those irredentist urges, they got the Ogaden War, and the aftermath of the Ogaden War is basically directly responsible for the current state of Somalia.

Like, even the whole "unionist vs. seperatist" debate is largely a proxy for clan. The clans that have a large majority in Somalia but are a minority within Somaliland's declared borders tend to be for unification, while the clans that are a majority in Somaliland but would be a minority in Somalia tend to be against. This is not a problem that's going to be solved by wrapping everyone in a top-down unitary state regardless of local wishes, but good luck telling Somalian nationalists that.

[u/BOQOR → u/jadebenn]

The Isaaq clan, usually thought of as constituting the majority of the population of what used to be British Somaliland, is probably under 50% of the population by now. They are a strong plurality.

Maroodijeex, the region that contains the capital Hargaysa, has a TFR of 4.5. Sool, the region which contains Las Anod, has a TFR of 7.8. Maroodijeex is majority Isaaq and Sool is majority Dhulbahante. See pg 72 :DHS Survey 2020

Somaliland is not viable as an independent state. The component of the population opposed to secession is growing almost 40% faster than those who want secession.

The pro secession Isaaq were the majority in 1991 when they used the military power of the SNM to coerce the other clans, namely the Harti and Gadabursi, into signing on to secession. They are now a strong plurality and have in the past decade stopped all talk of referendum, knowing the risk it poses given their eroding demographic predominance.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/Plants_et_Politics]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about it they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/Holditfam → u/Plants_et_Politics]

optimist imagine saying to the us government or mexico that mexico city should be allowed to leave or texas should be allowed to leave

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Holditfam]

Are Mexico city or Texas already de facto independent?

There’s a major difference between going around inciting or supporting independence movements that are still in their infancy and recognizing the sovereignty of a country that declared independence in 1991 and had existed independently since then.

[u/Holditfam → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Declared independence and being independent are two completely different things

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Holditfam]

Since I never use the term “declared independence,” I fail to see how this in any way responds to what I said.

[u/TrekkiMonstr → u/realsomalipirate]

I support self-determination. If the people of Somaliland want independence from Somalia, let them have it. And if Ethiopia makes a deal with them for access to the sea, that's not Somalia's concern.

[u/Leonflames → u/TrekkiMonstr]

I support self-determination.

If that's the case, you should support the self-determination of the seceding minority state from within Somaliland as well.

SSC-Khaatumo was acknowledged as an interim administration by the Federal Government of Somalia on 19 October 2023,[5] following its re-establishment on 6 February 2023, as SSC-Khaatumo after a period of mass civil unrest in Las Anod.

[u/jadebenn → u/Leonflames]

Sure, let them secede from Somaliland and let Somaliland secede from Somalia. Or is self-determination only justified when it's pushing towards the "Greater Somalia" ethnostate dream that's done nothing but drive the country further and further into the dirt?

[u/ParallelBlades → u/jadebenn]

Somaliland will turn into the city state of Hargeisa if that they openly give every region/city the right to self determine. You can’t just give a single city the right to secede from the whole nation.

Most Somalis within Somalilands claimed borders accept the status quo because the government of Mogadishu is corrupt and inept. It’s usually not worth fighting to Somaliland government to join that.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/jadebenn]

'somaliland' you described is poorer than any other part of Somalia. Its human rights situation is horrendous. It is also a pervasive culture of fear. You can't speak out. You can't criticize the status quo. It exists solely as a money laundering operation for triballist old men. The silent majority don't want to separate from Somalia. 35 million Somalis will not allow our country to be divided.

[u/AutoModerator → u/Leonflames]

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[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/TrekkiMonstr]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/TrekkiMonstr → u/Secret-Grand6484]

33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

Well, the first bit is meaningless, as discussed. As for the second, it's kinda already happened. Regardless, if what the rest of what you say is true, then yeah, fuck Somaliland. In either case, we're taking a garbage stance on it.

[u/realsomalipirate → u/TrekkiMonstr]

Lol it's an authoritarian state run by a single clan (good luck to the minority voices). It's not a democracy.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/TrekkiMonstr]

'somaliland' you described is poorer than any other part of Somalia. Its human rights situation is horrendous. It is also a pervasive culture of fear. You can't speak out. You can't criticize the status quo. It exists solely as a money laundering operation for triballist old men. The silent majority don't want to separate from Somalia. 35 million Somalis will not allow our country to be divided.

[u/groupbot → u/Cook_0612]

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[u/Q-bey]

Thanks to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia’s expansionist ambitions and reckless designs, the Horn of Africa is on the cusp of a war that would imperil the region and rebound against the rest of the world.

That's Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Abiy Ahmed by the way.

[u/Fifth-Dimension-1966 → u/Q-bey]

That doesn't mean all Nobel Peace Prize laureates are evil, as a matter of fact some of them did a lot of work that encouraged China to liberalize.

[u/Brief-Grapefruit-787 → u/Fifth-Dimension-1966]

Ah yes, good old Gary Kissinger.

[u/NoSet3066 → u/Brief-Grapefruit-787]

#GaryDidNothingWrong #JusticeForGary

[u/AutoModerator → u/Brief-Grapefruit-787]

Kissinger

Did you mean Nobel Peace Prize Recipient Henry Kissinger?

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/Q-bey → u/AutoModerator]

Wow, way to ruin the spoiler tag 🙄

[u/Apolloshot → u/Q-bey]

Automod ruining our jokes since 2020

[u/AMagicalKittyCat → u/Q-bey]

The Nobel peace prize does not and never has meant "This person is good and virtuous in all ways", more just that they did something really good towards making peace in a serious conflict. People are complicated and can be terrible in some areas and great in others.

[u/Fifth-Dimension-1966 → u/AMagicalKittyCat]

The Nobel peace price does not and never has meant "This person is good and virtuous in all ways"

Unless its about people who helped Liberalize China, then it does mean precisely that.

[u/YeetThePress → u/Fifth-Dimension-1966]

You mean like this guy?

[u/Fifth-Dimension-1966 → u/YeetThePress]

Beautiful

[u/darkcow → u/AMagicalKittyCat]

It's easily the most silly Nobel prize. It gets tossed on people for political reasons that often have nothing to do with peace or the recipients actual deeds.

[u/ElGosso → u/darkcow]

Like when they gave Obama one for not being George W. Bush

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/ElGosso]

Honestly, given their record, it’s a shock they didn’t ever manage to give one to Bush, Blair, or Hussein.

[u/zapporian → u/AMagicalKittyCat]

It seems to more specifically mean we hope this person has helped make steps towards peace in a serious conflict. Aspirationally.

There aren’t a whole lot of great track records there, for obvious reasons.

Obviously (or maybe non obviously?) diplomats don’t end wars and intergenerational conflicts, populations do. Or don’t.

[u/Flabby-Nonsense → u/Q-bey]

Which, when he won, he absolutely deserved. He’d just ended a decades long conflict with Eritrea, no one at the time thought the prize was improperly given.

[u/TimothyMurphy1776]

Somaliland has been functionally independent for decades and the Somalian government lacks the capability to wage a serious conflict with Ethiopia or Somaliland.

[u/Viper_Red → u/TimothyMurphy1776]

Did you miss the part where Somalia signed a defense pact with Egypt and Turkey and Saudi Arabia considers the Red Sea important for its interests?

[u/Bobchillingworth → u/Viper_Red]

I don't think this is going to play out like a game of Civ where countries will aid their defensive pact partners by immediately deploying expeditionary forces. At most, they'll maybe ship over some weapons and a handful of advisors and then call it a day.

[u/Dangerous-Basket1064 → u/Bobchillingworth]

Egypt just sent troops to Somalia, with a stated target of 10,000.

[u/Bobchillingworth → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

I guarantee Egypt is not going to invade Ethiopia through Somalia with a force about 1/20 the size of Ethiopia's military. Egypt is not likely to attack Ethiopia unless Ethiopia perpetrates an act of war against them first, because it would be a logistical nightmare against a near-peer opponent with a lot of veteran troops who can also seriously reduce their supply of fresh water via the Grand Renaissance Dam.

[u/Futski → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

Does Egypt have the means to use those soldiers for actual combat purposes though?

Like what ability do they have to keep them supplied?

[u/geniice → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

Their troops didn't do to well in sudan a country vastly more important to egypt.

[u/ZCoupon → u/Viper_Red]

Obviously Somalia won't let it go without a fight. I still support Somaliland independence though.

[u/Leonflames → u/ZCoupon]

I still support Somaliland independence though.

Do you support the independence of the smaller states in Somaliland as well, the SCC-Khatuumo state?There's been a conflict#:~:text=The%20Las%20Anod%20conflict%20(Somali,capital%20of%20the%20Sool%20region.)) that started last year which caused a third of the country to secede from it.

Fighting erupted on 6 February 2023 after Somaliland security forces held a violent crackdown on civil protests. Under the leadership of President Muse Bihi, the Somaliland Army engaged in an extended military operation aimed at subduing the city of Las Anod through artillery bombardment over a period of six months.

Amnesty International determined that Somaliland security forces' engaged in indiscriminate shelling of Las Anod - resulting in the damage of schools, mosques, hospitals, and deaths and injury of civilians.

In August 2023, the Somaliland army was compelled to retreat from the environs of Las Anod after being routed by SSC forces,[31] and was later recognized as an interim administration by the Federal Government of Somalia in October 2023.

Don't they deserve to self determine their fate as well, especially considering the atrocities they faced?

[u/ZCoupon → u/Leonflames]

I wasn't aware of that conflict, certainly a stain on the country.

I do not agree that every state deserves independence simply because they want it, even if their parent state has committed atrocities against it. The main argument for Somaliland in my view is the complete failure of the Somali state to govern, see also an independent Puntland. I'm not sure if state violence in Somaliland by the Somali government justifies independence more or less. At least Somalia would be capable of projecting power within its borders. In a similar view, Somaliland is trying to maintain territorial integrity, which shows they have some security control. Maybe Somaliland can rejoin Somalia with greater autonomy, but between the two states, the prior at least has functioning institutions.

That all being said, given the conflict, it looks like more local control within Somaliland may be warranted, at the very least.

[u/Leonflames → u/ZCoupon]

The main argument for Somaliland in my view is the complete failure of the Somali state to govern, see also an independent Puntland.

Yeah, the Somali federal government has struggled quite a lot throughout the years asserting its claims.

Maybe Somaliland can rejoin Somalia with greater autonomy, but between the two states, the prior at least has functioning institutions.

That's what I'm personally in favor of. I don't see how it can improve without going through this route. It's also what's been happening somewhat with regards to Puntland.

it looks like more local control within Somaliland may be warranted, at the very least.

One of the reasons I brought this up is to show that Somaliland isn't some great "democracy" in East Africa that's being held back by the international community. It's in a sense like Somalia trying to assert territorial control over areas it isn't able to do.

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[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/ZCoupon]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/ZCoupon → u/Secret-Grand6484]

How is Somaliland a more failed project than the Somali government? Somalia can't even disallow Al-Shabbab from holding territory. Seems like they've already allowed this division

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/ZCoupon]

The region you described is poorer than any other part of Somalia. Its human rights situation is horrendous. It is also a pervasive culture of fear. You can't speak out. You can't critizie the status quo. It exists solely as a money laundering operation for triballist old men. The silent majority don't want to separate from Somalia. You mentioned Al Shabaab. AS is a no Taliban. They are today nothing more than a nuisance for Somalia. AS is armed and financed by Ethiopia and Kenya to keep Somalia weak. You foreigners speak about a country you don't know the situation on the ground. 35 million Somalis will not allow our country to be divided.

[u/ZCoupon → u/Secret-Grand6484]

I get it, you're a proud Somali. So what is the Somali government doing about Somaliland and Puntland then? What do the next 10-20 years look like?

You foreigners speak about a country you don't know the situation on the ground.

I'm all ears man. Clearly we have no Somalis on this corner of Reddit, so any perspective is welcome.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/ZCoupon]

Somalia is one ethnicity one language and one religion. It is unique in Africa. In any other country. You would have a bloodbath in the streets as the army is sent in to stop the separatism. We are not going to send army to kill our people in the separatist region. The people are innocent, they are victims of these old men who live of the money laundering. It must be dealt with rationally. Buy individually targetting the top echelon in the enclave. 'somaliland' is now surrounded on all sides by pro unionist regions. Puntland is different. Our problem in Somalia is the federal project but Somalis is a nation of clans so the states become clan states. We have a structural problem in federalism that must be removed and go back to the 18 province model. The positive is that our people reject separatism.

[u/ZCoupon → u/Secret-Grand6484]

Thanks, very insightful. Federalism seems like an obvious solution at first glance, but it leads to a less stable government. I hope for Somali unity now.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/ZCoupon]

In any other country the region would be under a bloodbath. People would have been killed. They're be a flood of refugees. People would be sent to gulags. Somalia has never attacked 'somaliland'. It is our people. We will never do that. We must reconcile and come to our senses.

[u/Viper_Red → u/ZCoupon]

Not sure what relevance your personal support for a fictional state has to this story

[u/SteveFoerster → u/Viper_Red]

It's as fictional as Taiwan.

[u/_Just7_ → u/SteveFoerster]

Still crazy to me that some people genuinely think that the UN is the official decision maker in what is/isn't a country

[u/InnocentPerv93 → u/_Just7_]

Tbf if most other countries in the world do not acknowledge your independence, you're not independent.

[u/dangerbird2 → u/Viper_Red]

This “fictional state” has had a functional government a hell of a lot longer than Somalia has

[u/Leonflames → u/dangerbird2]

It isn't much more functional than Somalia considering a third of it has effectively seceded from it

[u/AutoModerator → u/Leonflames]

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[u/Viper_Red → u/dangerbird2]

Doesn’t matter. As far as the U.S. is concerned, Somaliland has never been a sovereign state

[u/Viper_Red → u/[deleted]]

Well unfortunately for them, their existence only becomes legitimate when a superpower says so. If that wasn’t the case, Palestine and Kurdistan would be sovereign states

This is like when Oscar had to explain to Michael that simply declaring bankruptcy loudly doesn’t actually do anything

[u/dangerbird2 → u/Viper_Red]

Since when does the US get to decide what is and isn’t a state? Pretty sure the people who live in Somaliland get to decide if somaliland is a state or not

[u/InnocentPerv93 → u/dangerbird2]

Tbf, that's just not how that works on the world stage. Other major countries need to acknowledge your existence as a state.

[u/Viper_Red → u/dangerbird2]

Since 1945? You unaware of everything that’s happened since?

[u/jaroborzita → u/Viper_Red]

They’re not going to do anything tho

[u/YIMBYzus → u/Viper_Red]

You just Julianna McKannis-ed that man's whole position.

[u/geniice → u/Viper_Red]

Did you miss the part where Somalia signed a defense pact with Egypt and Turkey

Sisi has shown a tendency to be a peacemonger and the watermelon seller has concerns closer to home.

and Saudi Arabia considers the Red Sea important for its interests?

It was a lot more important before the houthis started chucking explosives at passing ships.

[u/BBQ_HaX0r → u/Viper_Red]

So all nominal American allies. I cannot imagine that going well for Ethiopia. 

[u/fredleung412612 → u/Viper_Red]

The UAE seems to be more keen on Somaliland though, and they're in control of Socotra which is a pretty strategic location.

[u/AnachronisticPenguin → u/Viper_Red]

Ethiopia controls most of Egypt’s water supply. They won’t do shit.

[u/Viper_Red → u/AnachronisticPenguin]

Sounds like a good reason to get involved and secure their water supply under the guise of upholding a defense pact.

[u/swift-current0 → u/Viper_Red]

Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia will all gladly support Somaliland, Puntland or even Al Shabaab if it suits their interests. Besides, having an insurgency on the doorstep of the capital, and occasionally not even controlling the whole capital, seems to me like a teensy bit more pressing matter.

[u/[deleted] → u/TimothyMurphy1776]

I thought so to until I read Egypt signed a security pact. They have pretty bad relations with Ethiopia.

[u/Bobchillingworth → u/TimothyMurphy1776]

Yeah, there's a lot of dramatic, alarmist nonsense in this piece, with the claim that the government of Somalia, which controls maybe a fourth of its internationally-recognized territory, is going to somehow find the forces and wherewithal to wage war against Ethiopia being particularly risible.

[u/Melodic_Ad596 → u/TimothyMurphy1776]

That doesn’t mean we should support or allow an irredentist power in Ethiopia to seize legally recognized Somalia territory

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Melodic_Ad596]

Is this irredentism? I don’t see Ethiopia claiming that Somalia is—to use the meme terminology currently in vogue—“rightful Ethiopian clay.”

Instead this seems like a more narrowminded and realist strategy. Abiy Ahmed’s conflicts within Ethiopia have been aimed and centralizing and strengthening the national government, first by wiping out the independence of the TPLF, which had led Ethiopia for decades, then by turning on the Oromo and Amhara militias which he had strengthened by using them to fight the Tigrayans.

It’s worth noting that Ahmed himself is Oromo, so this is not an ethnic conflict for him, but rather a conflict between local ethnic control and centralized, more-or-less multiethnic, national control. The three ethnic groups currently fighting are the Tigrayans, who had their own government and military force, and previously ruled Ethiopia, the Amhara, who were the dominant ethnic group for most of Ethiopian history, and the Oromo, the most populous group and historically resentful of their diminished position in society.

To bolster that strong central government, and to strengthen its position in the world, Ethiopia needs access to the coast. This doesn’t seem particularly different to the United States carving an already semi-independent Panama off from Columbia in order to create the Panama Canal Zone.

That is certainly quasi-imperial at best, but irredentism seems the wrong framework.

[u/Holditfam → u/Plants_et_Politics]

Lol This Subreddit is unreal at shoving hypocrisy everywhere. This is like how Russia says it needs access to warm ports so it must invade countries bordering them. 34 upvotes shameful man. It is literally the definition of imperialism

[u/Plants_et_Politics → u/Holditfam]

You’ve responded to all of my comments with either willful or ignorant misinterpretations.

Irredentism is not necessarily imperialism, and imperialism is not necessarily irredentist.

If you actually read what I wrote, you would realize that I said that, while Ethiopia is not irredentist, it is quasi-imperial at best.

If you’re going to be exceptionally rude, please at least try for a second reading.

[u/Reddenbawker → u/Melodic_Ad596]

Realistically, what can be done? There’s certainly a solution in an ideal world, but how costly would that be, and would Western publics tolerate it? Is there a solution you might have in mind?

And if this war went through, what would the consequences be? I agree, controversial as it may seem, that imperialism is bad. But how much of a difference would it make if Ethiopia really did annex Somaliland? Are anticipated impacts on Red Sea trade (plus the further eroding of the norm not to invade others) as bad as it gets, or is there something more? Maybe I’m just underestimating the chance that this bogs down into a long war.

Seeing the Western response to Ukraine has just made me hopelessly cynical about all this. I really don’t know how we could get people to care, or what we could do besides cliche sanctions. Happy to hear what you think.

[u/AnachronisticPenguin → u/Reddenbawker]

Red Sea trade would likely increase overall.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/TimothyMurphy1776]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/Diviancey]

The fundamental problem remains that any non first world country might as well be on mars. No one really seems to care about these regions and its deeply depressing

[u/Throwingawayanoni → u/Diviancey]

Ahh, I remember when the first world used to care about africa, I wish we coulg go back to the 1870s…

Jokes aside, beyond diplomatic efforts what the hell are we meant to do? Bomb a people we barely understand?

[u/geniice → u/Throwingawayanoni]

Bomb a people we barely understand?

Somaliland was under british influence for 80 years. I'm sure there are some english language sources on the people there.

[u/TheAlexHamilton → u/Throwingawayanoni]

“barely understand”

If a westerner were to take that stance, they shouldn’t have any opinion on Israel-Gaza either.

Yeah, right…

[u/BoppoTheClown → u/Diviancey]

Hit the nail on the head. I think of myself as slightly more informed than the average voter, and I almost didn't click in to see what happened.

As terrible as this sounds, I just don't see how this loops back to me or mine, and there are more important things for the political machine to worry about than this.

[u/Informal-Ideal-6640 → u/Diviancey]

If we’re being real though, why should a regular person living in a country with no individual influence to anything beyond their personal lives be invested and fully informed on conflict like this?

I think there’s a lot wrong with framing issues such as this with the idea that if you’re living in a first world country it’s your job to work towards making things right in places far away from your home. This is something for the state department to deal with and the only realistic thing someone can do is vote of an executive administration that will deal with it in a sane way

[u/therealwavingsnail → u/Diviancey]

The world will start caring really fast if this endangers international shipping

[u/Dangerous-Basket1064 → u/therealwavingsnail]

That's what I assumed when the Houthis started attacking random ships in the Red Sea, but months later and I'm constantly amazed by what the world can adapt to.

[u/Cromasters → u/Dangerous-Basket1064]

People won't care until they can't get their Amazon deliveries of stuff made in East Asia.

That hasn't happened yet, so people in the West don't care.

[u/Apolloshot → u/Cromasters]

Exactly. It hasn’t affected them enough.

Once it affects the creature comforts, then all bets are off.

[u/Q-bey → u/therealwavingsnail]

I would've agreed with you before seeing the world's collective shrug to the Houthis.

[u/Tman1677 → u/therealwavingsnail]

The Houthis have effectively cut off the Red sea for commercial shipping and the whole world has effectively shrugged because it doesn’t really affect America and the European navies are too much of a joke to do anything.

[u/Cook_0612 → u/Diviancey]

There is a limit to this kind of ignorance. It might not be this conflict, it might not be Ukraine, it might be some thing we aren't even thinking of now, but at a certain point these things will add up and impact us materially and we will be paying attention whether we want to or not.

[u/Atari_Democrat → u/Cook_0612]

Maybe if you live in Europe or Japan or Oceania. Fortress America remains almost totslly immune to the outside unless you are a commodities trader or a major importer from very specific regions... for better or for worse sadly

[u/Cook_0612 → u/Atari_Democrat]

American prosperity flows from trade, and that puts it in the crosshairs of the tides of international relations. Americans would not accept an attempt at autarky, they just wouldn't.

[u/sumduud14 → u/Cook_0612]

Trade as a % of GDP is low for the US compared to other developed countries. The US is capable of full energy and food independence.

America can't do autarky. But if any country could, it would be America.

[u/Cook_0612 → u/sumduud14]

That's not the standard though, the standard is whether we'd accept it or not, and I think the American public would start paying attention to IR again before they slip into semi-autarky. The only question is whether it'd be too late when they do.

[u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

This article is clinging to NO NEW COUNTRIES to the point of irrationality. Somaliland has been an effectively independent nation for decades and is one of the most stable and functional in the reason. Somalia on the other hand is a failed state without the ability to enforce any territorial claims. Somalia's expansionist nationalism also started it's spiral into failure; Somalia invaded Ethiopia in 1977, failed, and then spiraled into civil war.

The US should just recognize Somaliland and get this over with. Let them make a deal with Ethiopia and tell the Somali nationalists that it sucks to suck.

[u/Leonflames → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

Somaliland has been an effectively independent nation for decades and is one of the most stable and functional in the reason

That isn't true anymore since the region has fallen into a conflict#:~:text=The%20Las%20Anod%20conflict%20(Somali,capital%20of%20the%20Sool%20region.)) once again and lost control over one third of its land to the seceding Khaatumo state.

Fighting erupted on 6 February 2023 after Somaliland security forces held a violent crackdown on civil protests. Under the leadership of President Muse Bihi, the Somaliland Army engaged in an extended military operation aimed at subduing the city of Las Anod through artillery bombardment over a period of six months.

Amnesty International determined that Somaliland security forces' engaged in indiscriminate shelling of Las Anod - resulting in the damage of schools, mosques, hospitals, and deaths and injury of civilians.

In August 2023, the Somaliland army was compelled to retreat from the environs of Las Anod after being routed by SSC forces,[31] and was later recognized as an interim administration by the Federal Government of Somalia in October 2023.

[u/geniice → u/Leonflames]

Yeah turns out not recognising it had some downsides. Is there a reason you wish to continue this policy?

[u/Leonflames → u/geniice]

No, it shows that the state itself isn't very stable nor functional. Why recognize an unstable state?

Is there a reason you wish to continue this policy?

It's not about wanting to continue this policy, but rather affording the citizens of this state to self determine as well.

[u/geniice → u/Leonflames]

No, it shows that the state itself isn't very stable nor functional. Why recognize an unstable state?

So we should also not recognise Somalia? Then what? Do we need to resurect British Somaliland?

It's not about wanting to continue this policy, but rather affording the citizens of this state to self determine as well.

Well if you don't want to continue the policy we should recognise Somaliland and have done with it. Relative stability has its uses.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/geniice]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about it they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/geniice → u/Secret-Grand6484]

Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

Somalia is an artificial construct made by glueing leftover bits of the british and italian empires together. For something that cannot be divided the british seemed to manage it pretty easily and they were only interested in the places because they wanted supplies for a coaling station.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/geniice]

Somalia existed before the europeans came. The reason why no one has recognised the 'somaliland' is that it was analogous to a british protectorate. You cannot base your case on lines drawn by colonalists. The idea is ludicrous. The reality in Somalia is no one wants separatism only a few corrupt old men.

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[u/realsomalipirate → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

Somaliland is a tiny state run by a single clan and is effectively an authoritarian state, it's also in constant conflict with its southern neighbour (puntland). The propaganda machine pushed by Somaliland has muddled the waters and presented a false image of it. Further balkanizing Somalia is fucking stupid (we all have the same language, same religion, and similar culture) and would just weaken the entire region even more.

[u/Unhelpful-Future9768 → u/realsomalipirate]

tiny state

6x as many people as in Djibouti, similar population to Eritrea or Oman.

run by a single clan and is effectively an authoritarian state

that entire region is dictatorships

constant conflict

I know they have occasional flare ups but compared to the rest of the region they are very stable. Also defining that border and codifying independence could help there.

same language, same religion, and similar culture

Like the US and Canada? Or Columbia and Venezuela? Like Russia and Ukraine? Like Germany and Austria?

[u/Hisoka_Brando → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

I wouldn’t call it just a minor flare up. Somaliland lost 25% of its territory and the war displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians. There’s also the issue that the Awdal region that Somaliland offered Ethiopia a base in is also host to separatist movements.

[u/realsomalipirate → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

Djibouti becoming a state was also a mistake. How Somalia was carved up by colonial powers is a damn shame (we lost so much traditional territory).

You simply don't understand the situation if you're comparing Somalialand/Somalia to these countries.

[u/geniice → u/realsomalipirate]

Djibouti becoming a state was also a mistake. How Somalia was carved up by colonial powers is a damn shame (we lost so much traditional territory).

Who lost traditional territory? The british cut a deal with some tribes that already controlled the area in question.

[u/TouchTheCathyl → u/realsomalipirate]

Germany lost Konigsberg.

[u/Leonflames → u/realsomalipirate]

You simply don't understand the situation if you're comparing Somalialand/Somalia to these countries.

Most of this sub isn't capable of understanding the political situation of the region as a whole. The situation is not as black and white as this sub thinks it is.

[u/realsomalipirate → u/Leonflames]

I honestly think pro-Somaliland propaganda has been so successful that it's actually made some western liberals think Somaliland is a bastion of democracy and self-determination. There was another user who claimed the rest of Somalia is trying to exterminate them.

I wonder how these same NL users would think of the Khaatumo region, and the darod clans who live there, not wanting to be a part of Somaliland. Does self-determination end there?

[u/casino_r0yale → u/realsomalipirate]

At least Somaliland had the balls to issue a fatwa against (some) female genital mutilation, which is more than I can say for Somalia.

98% of girls aged 5-11 going through the most unconscionable horrors. Ayaan Hirsi Ali’s own account from her autobiography is viscerally harrowing and sickening.

That government deserves to burn and I support Somaliland’s baby step in the right direction. No “western liberal” illusions necessary. 

[u/realsomalipirate → u/casino_r0yale]

I'm Somali myself and I understand the horrors of this (many female relatives have gone through this horror), but dicing up the country up even more makes no sense and stops the Somali people from growing. Also puntland literally passed a bill outlawing FGM 3 years ago, that's a part of the rest of the country.

So many of you guys are so proud to be ignorant about Somalia.

[u/Leonflames → u/realsomalipirate]

So many of you guys are so proud to be ignorant about Somalia.

Because Somalia is considered to be an irredeemable country to most people. The more it weakens, the "better" it is.

Hence why so many people here are eager to disregard international law and its sovereignty rights. So much for "supporting the rules based world order" I guess 🤷

[u/realsomalipirate → u/Leonflames]

And that fucking asshole who literally knows nothing about Somalia and reacts with such vitriol to a country struggling to change. Seriously fuck them.

[u/Leonflames → u/realsomalipirate]

I agree with you 100%! This pro-Somaliland narrative that has been embraced completely by liberals shows the lack of understanding of the region. It's a narrative that strips away the nuance and oversimplifies the issue.

[u/realsomalipirate → u/Leonflames]

Like you said earlier this is a region filled with conflicts that are more grey than black&white. Like in Ethiopia the war between Abiy Ahmed's government and the TPLF (and I guess the Oromo liberation front) is really a conflict about two truly horrible sides. Similar things are happening in Sudan as well.

[u/fredleung412612 → u/realsomalipirate]

How would a utopian Somalia deal with the Afar minority in Djibouti, if they weren't independent?

[u/BOQOR → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

Somaliland’s shelling of Las Anod caused 150,000 refugees to flee to Ethiopia. Thankfully Somaliland was routed in the field and lost 40% of their “nation”.

I don’t think a war with more than 3,000 casualties and 150,000 refugees is a minor flareup.

[u/wowzabob → u/realsomalipirate]

would just weaken the entire region even more.

Taking the default position that a single state controlling a people and area is inherently "stronger" seems to be flawed.

[u/jadebenn → u/wowzabob]

It's the base assumption of Somalian nationalists and it's baffling. Very much 'großdeutschland" vibes to me. National unity doesn't arise from a powerful state, it enables a powerful state. They're going about things all top-down instead of bottom-up.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/Unhelpful-Future9768]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about it they will very likely get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/UnscheduledCalendar]

After the world’s silence on Sudan...

[u/GrinningPariah]

Trouble has horns to hold but not tails.

Somali proverb, suggesting that disaster can be prevented but not easily controlled,

I'll go ahead and incorporate that into my philosophy

[u/ReservedWhyrenII]

Y'know, if Ethiopia wants sea access and is willing to go to war with someone, for it... maybe helping them redirect those aims towards Eritrea instead of Somalia would be a good idea

[u/houinator → u/ReservedWhyrenII]

Its been tried.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_War

Led to the death of about 300,000 people and didnt really resolve anything. Much more in favor of a solution that involes a peaceful negotiation.

[u/AutoModerator → u/houinator]

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[u/Bobchillingworth → u/ReservedWhyrenII]

Far more people would die in a war of conquest between Ethiopia and Eritrea than would if Ethiopia moves forward with acquiring a base in Somaliland. But yes, that's likely Abiy's backup plan.

[u/jadebenn]

People will say we "don't understand" the region, but I understand Somalia fucking plenty: They still believe in their dream of "Greater Somalia" and Somaliland is a threat to that dream because – as we all know – sticking fragmented ethnic groups under a fucking unitary state at the barrel of a gun is a recipe for long-lasting peace and prosperity! Just ask Yugoslavia!

Somalian nationalists are fucking delusional, and they're the ones who want to invade all their neighbors and annex their territories... if they can ever manage to shut down Al-Shabab.

[u/MrStrange15]

Im just surprised by how many Somalia and Somaliland experts /r/neoliberal apparently is host to. Really impressive!

[u/AnachronisticPenguin → u/MrStrange15]

We’re the wonkiest of the wonks.

[u/PragmatistAntithesis]

Somaliland has been de facto independent for decades now, and its lack of de jure recognition is causing a large amount of avoidable suffering by preventing mutually beneficial trade.

Ethiopia is right to recognise them, and I hope the world follows.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/PragmatistAntithesis]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/Rebuilt-Retil-iH → u/PragmatistAntithesis]

The problem with recognizing Somalialand is that it gives international support to the idea of succession from Somalia, which is a bad idea for a country that has only recently become semi-stable again

It’s de facto independent, and it’ll have to accept that de jure independence won’t come for a few more years at least if ever

[u/seattle_lib]

it's like, fucking talk to each other. somaliland, somalia, ethiopia, djibouti, you gotta get together in a room. this is not a situation that needs a war. everyone involved here is in the african union.

we are talking about cold political and resource calculation here, not ethnic violence or some kind of grudge over a past atrocity like what is going on in other wars in the region. this should be talked about like civilized people.

[u/casino_r0yale]

This is all fairly old news, I remember the reports back in January. The article seems to be working overtime to make a handful of minor incidents into more than they are. 

[u/Tokidoki_Haru]

This is the same guy whose country and armed forces are accused of conducting an ethnic cleansing and genocide.

That he intends waging a war of territorial aggression is honestly not surprising.

[u/houinator → u/Tokidoki_Haru]

Somalia of course is famously completly free of genocide and ethnic cleansing.

[u/InterstitialLove]

Somaliland is a real country. That's not an opinion, that's an observation

Somalia, last I checked, isn't

Seriously, does Somalia even have the ability to contest Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland? If they could mount a war to keep Ethiopia out, wouldn't they... y'know... have re-taken Somaliland by now?

I mean, if you accept the "Somalia is the only legitimate government" narrative, then that region is already being occupied by illegitimate forces, and has been for like a decade. I fail to see why the scenario being predicted would be worse than the status quo

[u/seattle_lib → u/InterstitialLove]

somalia really exists, actually, and they have been mounting a credible offensive against al shabaab for a few years now. it might have been the case before that it was essentially stateless, but that characterization is out of date.

[u/InterstitialLove → u/seattle_lib]

It's possible I'm out of date

But if they're already mounting a credible offensive and it still hasn't been effective, what exactly will be so much worse about Ethiopia entering the game? It will provoke Somalia to... do what exactly? Continue mounting an offensive?

Ethiopia isn't fomenting war. People who want Somalia to win the ongoing civil war are just upset that Ethiopia might back Somaliland

[u/seattle_lib → u/InterstitialLove]

There's no war with Somaliland, theres a war against the islamist group al shabaab But I agree that there isn't much somalia can really do militarily against the far superior Ethiopian forces, which probably has a lot to do with why Ethiopia feels so confident in making deals with Somaliland.

I am strongly of the belief that a political solution is very possible here. Which is why it's fucked up how belligerently Ethiopia treats the situation. It already has a longstanding hostile relationship with Eritrea, but it's also fighting wth Kenya and Egypt over GERD, including war threats, and now this.

It's hard not to see them as extremely chaotic actors right now.

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/InterstitialLove]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/InterstitialLove → u/Secret-Grand6484]

Do you hear the contradiction? Somalia has been divided for 33 years and the people have been allowing it

[u/Secret-Grand6484 → u/InterstitialLove]

You clearly have no response to my retord. I doubt if you could even find Somalia on the map.

[u/InterstitialLove → u/Secret-Grand6484]

I wish you could hear yourself

[u/[deleted]]

This sounds a whole lot like none of our fucking business.

[u/Secret-Grand6484]

The silent majority in the region don't support separatism from Somalia. If they are public about iyt they will get arrested, tortured and even killed. 'somaliland' is a failed tribal project of a few old men that are dying out. 33 years of begging for recognition and not one country has recognised them. Somalia cannot be divided the people will not allow it.

[u/Route-One-442]

People squealed about wanting multi-polar world - let them enjoy it.

[u/FunHoliday7437 → u/Route-One-442]

Those "People" aren't the "them" that will be suffering the consequences. It's an overlapping venn diagram but not the same thing. Lots of innocent people.

[u/AnachronisticPenguin]

This article really mischaracterizes the conflict.

The deal with Somaliland is to avoid war not to start it.

Ethiopia is kind of big 123 million people and really big compared to its neighbors. And is now trying to make a name for itself by becoming a participant in global trade.

But they don’t have a port because they have up their coastline in 1993 since they finally gave up on controlling Eritrea (now one of the worst dictatorships in the world).

However because they have only one friendly nation with a port next to them Djibouti is gouging them for access reducing their ability to develop as a nation.

So basically, Ethiopia feels they deserve a port and are probably going to get a port because they are big and economic development wants them to have a port.

The question is how.

Option A they make a deal with Somaliland and everyone complains but there probably isn’t an actual war because Somalia doesn’t control Somaliland and they are also in no position to start a war.

Their allies also likely won’t care enough to start a war with Ethiopia.

So lots of complaining but probably no real war.

Option B. Ethiopia invades Eritrea and a real war breaks out.

Ethiopia only needs the tiny southern city of Assab to get their port. It’s 100 miles of desert away from the main population centers in the north so they could actually hold onto it without too much issue.

Problem is this would start a huge war between Ethiopia and Eritrea on the northern border anyway.

[u/dutch_connection_uk → u/AnachronisticPenguin]

The sane way to do this would be a custom's union, like South(west) Africa has. Given the political situation I doubt that kind of cooperation can happen though.

Pretty illustrative of how war is the alternative to trade that arises when trading fails.

[u/drt0]

I'm interested in how the borders ended up this way that big ass Ethiopia didn't get any sea access even though it's so close to the sea.

Feel like this was asking for trouble when these borders were setup.

[u/jadebenn → u/drt0]

Eritrea used to be part of Ethiopia. The reason it's not now has to do with a multi-decsde war.

[u/Rebuilt-Retil-iH → u/drt0]

Eritrea used to be part of Ethiopia, was annexed by Italy, made into a British protectorate after WW2, was turned into an autonomous region of Ethiopia in 1950, was formally annexed by Ethiopia in 1952, and then broke off in its own war of succession that lasted from 1961 to 1991

[u/Secret-Grand6484]

Ethiopia is currently in civil war. Its northern most province has a famine now even worse than the one in 1984. 900,000 have been killed since 2018. This genocidal state is threat not only to itself but regionally as well. Not only to Somalia but also Eritrea. Ethiopia is Africa's Yugoslavia. A country with a forced union, made up of 30 to 31 communities with diverse languages, cultures,& religions!