r/energy • u/twentiesforever • 10h ago
Over 1.3 Million EVs sold in the US in 2024.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/03/business/ford-gm-vehicle-sales.html-4
u/johnnmary1 1h ago
Good for the people who bought ev’s. That was their CHOICE. there is a market for ev’s in the US as there is a much larger market for ICE vehicles. Drill baby drill means power on the World stage. This is nothing new. Whoever has the most energy will be the leader. The US has to be the leader because china and russia are cutthroat and will take advantage of weakness.
•
u/Ecstatic-Bee5430 35m ago
Have you forgotten that the emerging energy that is the cheapest (and continuing to get cheaper) is solar? Of which china is dominating? That is the real future of energy, not expanding drilling (of which we have been at an all time high for years). We should be investing in future energy sources, not getting stuck in the past
•
u/PieTight2775 41m ago
We can't be the leader, we have already lost. The majority of precious metal mines used for batteries are controlled by China.
7
u/Current_Speaker_5684 1h ago
Having energy options is not a weakness. Drilling endlessly and hoping the supply never slows down is.
21
u/truemore45 6h ago
That's a reduction of 53,000 barrels of oil per day assuming they are displacing an ICE vehicle.
It's a drop in the bucket but when you're talking more than 10m vehicles in China this year the numbers get very interesting. Total EVs for the world in 2024 looks like ~18m we will have better data by March.
Now 18M is around 740,000 barrels per day. That is enough your starting to get serious demand destruction each year. Peak ICE sales was 2016 and they have been growing slowly as the percentage of vehicles sold worldwide. Due mainly to China we are closing on 20% of all new vehicles being EVs which was a huge spike in 2024.
I'm mainly interested in how this starts to affect oil prices. Seems like the war in Russia, Iranians sanctions, OPEC+ production cuts and about a dozen other factors have been masking the demand destruction effects with off-set. We have seen a bit of price drop since August but not a cliff level drop probably due to all these other issues. It's funny I remember the 80s and early 1990s when a minor issue in the Persian Gulf would cause prices to soar. Now we have a war destroying refineries in Russia and little to no effect. Something is obviously different, just don't think people have really seen the effects yet.
If the war with Russia ends soon and they go full speed on drilling and selling we could see a real demand destruction crash in the later years of the decade. A few million extra barrels could really break the market. Think late 1990s.
8
u/Supersubie 4h ago
I think even above what you have said we also have the 2 wheel electric disruption going on in places like India, Taiwan and China. These use far less Gas but it is significant because of the number of these things that are being pumped out.
This trend is only increasing in speed. What is the magical tipping point for demand destruction where we start to see the oil refineries going bust? Or Gas stations going out of business in certain areas cause ICE cars to be a massive pain in the arse to own!
I have been fascinated with the transition in Norway for a while because they have been in the 80 - 90% of new cars sold being BEV for a few years now but I can't ever seem to find data on what is happening to Gas stations in the country.
Did they convert their business models to be superchargers or are locations reducing?
Most people moan about a 15 min charge time for a BEV although most owners do not have to suffer from that in any sort of regularity because they charge at home or work. But if Gas station locations reduce you will start to get lines at gas stations that make the total fill up time over 15 mins. Suddenly one of the last advantages of ICE flips in favour of BEV.
1
u/mark-haus 3h ago
And if you live in a walkable city, electric bikes are displacing a lot of cars and even public transit options
•
u/Supersubie 18m ago
The real black swan event on the horizon here is if TaaS takes off (transport as a servie) with fully autonomous vehicles. We are seeing the expansion of Waymo and other service. With the Tesla taxi netowkr on the horizon as well.
If that comes to fruition at scale over the next 5 years the amount of rides they will disrupt is insane. Which will have a huge effect ton oil demand destruction as more people leave their cars at home and jump in an autonomous taxi to go visit friends or pop into town etc.
I can't say when that hits scale but it isn't a future idea. These services have beens calling for the last 4 or so years at some point they hit and inflection point for mass adoption.
10
u/FollowTheLeads 6h ago
That's why I get so missed off at people saying drill baby drill or voting for Trimp when he is all about oil.
They wanted to use our shores for oil. I'm glad Biden forbade it. Can you imagine how they will start drilling and mess up our shores to sell oil when demanding for it? It will be at an all-time time low by 2030 ? As more and more people are becoming middle class in Asia and Africa, they are turning to EV cars. Look at the sales of every car in Eastern African countries. You will be shocked.
In Thailand, BYD dominates. The other thing is public transportation. A lot of buses and metro are being built across the world. What is the common factor ? A lot of them are electric.
Now, energy, cruises, and aviation are the biggest users of oil. Renewable energy is at an all-time high - especially in Europe ( the biggest consumers of American oil) - with China and Norway leading the charge.
India is following closely with one of the biggest solar farm sets to open this year or 2026 at the latest. 2 of the countries that use a lot of energy are rapidly changing to renewable. Why, why why should we be drilling ? We are already at an all-time time high.
Electric planes are not a dream anymore, and a few are set to be for retail use in 2028 ( I am talking low distance passenger planes). Bio-fuel is also gaining traction.
Cannot wait for them to force oil drown our throat to then realise EV cars, electric oven, renewable energy etc... are there to stay. This guy and his entire administration freaking sucks. I know the first thing they will do is kill any EV rebate.
Deman is going to crash them so bad.
I am still disappointed that Chinese cars are not being sold here in the US. At the very least those cars companies would have felt the competition.
1
u/the_last_carfighter 1h ago
The once perpetually broke (till he got to the White House of course) and bankrupt Trumpo making terrible decisions?! Why I'm shocked
15
u/bogusnot 8h ago
A few million people driving EVs barely noticing the difference between that and their old ICE car and idiots still showing up to complain about charging time. Most of them charge in 15-20 min on a road trip. That's less time than it takes the people who'll never drive an EV to poop.
4
u/FollowTheLeads 6h ago
My EV is quite old and still requires 3 hours of charging time . But new brand EV like Rivian, Ioniq 6 etc.. are like 15 minutes max now.
It's crazy. Waiting to possibly exchange one day.
2
u/heloguy1234 3h ago
I can go from 20-80% in my 2024 ioniq 5 in under 20 minutes if the battery is preconditioned. The problem, the only problem imo, is charger availability. Even in the northeast, where the infrastructure is pretty good, you will usually have to wait for a charger.
A minor inconvenience that only effects a couple trips a year at most in exchange for a far superior car that is more fun to drive than any ice car I’ve owned in 30 years of driving.
3
u/the_last_carfighter 1h ago
Exactly this, even if you get stuck at a charger once in a while, the amount of time needed for other things is far less. Winter warmup in my gas car takes absolute minimum 5 mins a day idling (figure 3 cold starts a day average), then gingerly driving for the next 10-15mins till it warms up properly costs me way more time over the course of a year. The shop that used to change the oil and do basic checks in some of my gas cars, I'd have to drop off in the am pick it up in the evening or the next day, so 12 hours without the car. My EV get in and go every time, 9 years on now, never been to a shop/dealer and only now does it need some "required" maintenance as a rear wheel bearing has gone bad. 8+ years: $0 spent on maintenance. This is why dealers, oil companies and old timer mechanics who don't want to learn new things HATE EVs. It's going to cost them all that easy money.
9
u/PersnickityPenguin 7h ago
Our last trip we stopped at a shopping center to charge at EA.
I took my son to go potty, walk the dog and grab a coffee. Charging was completed by the time we were done.
3
u/peakedtooearly 3h ago
This is what we do when on a road trip. Plan stops near to coffee shops, restaurants and parks and spend 30 mins relaxing while the car charges.
-22
u/thetjmorton 8h ago
I think hybrids are the way to go. No time to charge when you can easily gas up and go in an emergency.
-1
u/FollowTheLeads 6h ago
I sincerely don't know why hybrid exists. It should have been option A or B, not a between. China barely produces hybrid and looks at the result. Perfection.
The change should be immidiate and fast. If you think you aren't ready for an EV, then wait. It's a growing industry where upgrades and progress are constant. The number one issue is always charging time followed by distance. And now most EV are full capacity within 15 mnt and have an average distance of 250 miles.
3
u/Bard_the_Beedle 2h ago
I agree with your point but China (particularly BYD) actually produces a lot of PHEV. I’m not sure why they do and why people still buy them, but they make up a good portion of the sales.
•
u/Lorax91 53m ago
People buy PHEVs because they don't trust EV charging infrastructure for long trips, or don't want to deal with the potential inconveniences of charging, or both.
In China, this reportedly includes hours-long lines at chargers during popular travel periods. In the US, it involves incompatible chargers and some poorly maintained ones, areas with limited charging infrastructure, and areas where chargers are being overwhelmed by the number of EVs in use.
Plus EVs with enough range to reduce charging concerns can cost significantly more than similar gas cars, depending on what you're comparing.
1
0
u/Extreme-Island-5041 5h ago
I have a hybrid. I'd like to go all electric, but I drive between 100 and 150 miles every day commuting for work. Until I can afford an EV with no less than a 600 mile range, I'm going to be staying with my hybrid.
•
u/Upbeat-Ad-851 45m ago
How many cars have 600 mile range, who needs 600 mile range. You keep moving the goal posts for EV’s.
•
u/Extreme-Island-5041 7m ago
I'm not moving any goalposts. I stated the range my car gets and the range I want any car I own to have. I want an EV, but not until the range comes up a bit more.
2
u/mickeyanonymousse 5h ago
they exist because some of them get killer gas mileage or at least decent for some of the larger vehicles
2
9
u/zettajon 8h ago edited 7h ago
66% of household in the US have a garage. That means your car should be at 100% every day. Who is charging at the last minute? That's what gas cars do, making you inconvenience yourself to go to a station outside of your home. My EV fills up at home every night and is ready to go every morning.
Source: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/data/interactive/ahstablecreator.html
2
u/potionnumber9 7h ago
The battery should be kept between 30 and 80 for longevity
•
2
u/Bard_the_Beedle 2h ago
That depends on the battery type and many other factors. Limiting your range just to make the battery last a bit longer might not be the best decision in every case.
9
u/No-Paint8752 8h ago
No. Hybrids and pergola are 80x more likely to catch fire. You know also have two “engines” to maintain. You are still beholden to foreign energy dependency and fuel price gouging. You still pollute more.
2
u/MissionDocument6029 7h ago
hybrid does cut down the amount of fuel used... so its better but hard to convince people to spend 5k to go hybrid as how long to recoup fuel savings
1
u/PersnickityPenguin 7h ago
By maybe half. My coworker bought a hybrid and she cant even make it all the way home without the engine kicking in, it has less range than my 2015 Leaf does! Not impressive at all.
She lives 12 miles from the office.
3
-18
u/PontiacMotorCompany 9h ago
EVs are ok but not a panacea. The instant torque is a fun gimmick that wears off once I have to charge my car for 40 mins.
•
13
9
8
u/twentiesforever 9h ago
99.9% of the time, no one is waiting 40 minutes if you are charging at home like the vast majority of owners. Are there challenges for those without home charging yes, but if you are, it's worth not getting gas in -10 degree weather holding the pump handle.
-4
u/PontiacMotorCompany 9h ago
I’ll take 5 minutes of that compared to 20% deceased range thank you
12
u/twentiesforever 8h ago
who cares if you have decreased range when you wake up every day with 200+ miles of a range and the average driver only covers 30 miles a day. Are you cannonballing across the country every day of your life? Your EV gets 300 miles of range, winter range is 240 as you say, and you use 30 miles by the time you get home. You plug in when you get home and you wake up again, with another 240 mid winter. Rinse and repeat. And each mile costs less than your gasoline mile.
1
u/Smaxter84 3h ago
Well you obviously don't have the issue, because you don't regularly exceed the range.
Have you considered the scenario that most people resistant to going ev do have that problem?
I drive around the UK all year sorting out industrial and large commercial boilers on farms. Rural locations with no chance of charging an EV. I often do 2 or even 3 tanks of fuel in a busy week and my car takes 90ltr and does around 650 miles on that.
Absolutely no chance I'm subjecting myself to having to wait for charges and have all the stress and worry of finding one enroute, de touring adding extra time etc. in the past I had lpg converted petrol cars and it was a nightmare, not worth the fuel cost saving for me.
Loads of evs on the market with around 90kwh batteries that are not getting much more than 200 miles on a charge in shit weather! So even if I make it home, I need to squeeze in 90kwh overnight - my house is electric heating (heat pump and immersion) I have home batteries and I already use 60A all night long... I'm on an 80A supply so would need to have that upgraded to charge an EV, let alone 2 if the wife gets one.
•
u/JackfruitCrazy51 51m ago
Your use case is abnormal. 90%+ of people don't drive this way and would be fine charging at home.
-12
u/ramanw150 9h ago edited 8h ago
Still less then 10 percent of car sales and that with the handouts attached to make them cheaper.
15
27
u/Muzzlehatch 10h ago
You get all the torque right at the beginning, there’s no need to spool up to higher revs to get the power. And their low center of gravity makes them handle great. They are so fun to drive.
-20
u/Striking-Tomato-9681 10h ago
Thanks to Biden subsidies. This is how Elon got his billions.
•
1
u/SaltMage5864 8h ago
Why do you think your willful ignorance gives your rantings any legitimacy son?
13
5
u/merry_iguana 9h ago
Why is everyone upset about Chinese EVs then - they don't need subsidies, they're even threatening tariffs!
Do you want subsidies and local industry, or do you want to buy Chinese? I am pro domestic production personally!1
6
u/Striking-Tomato-9681 9h ago
The Chinese EVs are better made and have better tech. I don't want to hear the propaganda that they are garbage because they are not. US Automakers fear them because they can mass produce a better product. Tesla cars are way inferior to Chinese EVs. South Korean Kia EVs are way better than the North American Kia EVs.
4
8
u/Bard_the_Beedle 10h ago
Tesla has been selling regulatory credits for more than a decade. Elon earning billions is a result of many policies implemented throughout this period at the federal level and particularly in California, and not because of one administration.
-10
u/Striking-Tomato-9681 10h ago
Nah. Save it. Tesla stock BLEW UP when Biden was elected POTUS. That meant his Green initiative with those $7500 subsidies would help Tesla big time. Keep trying.
10
u/Bard_the_Beedle 10h ago
Keep trying what? What are you talking about? It’s good to understand how long term policies work.
1
u/Striking-Tomato-9681 7h ago
Save the BS for the other stupid Conservatives. Musk getting ready make it harder for the other rivals when Trump takes office. I see why Trump likes his people slow and dumb.
1
u/Bard_the_Beedle 2h ago
That has nothing to do with what I’m saying. You need to learn some respect.
25
u/Link9454 10h ago
“But there’s no demand” people incoming. Rip your inbox.
16
u/Jonger1150 9h ago
The oil simps are amazing. I mean.... if they were oil investers about to retire I'd somewhat understand, but these are just working stiffs who have no financial stake in oil. I mean... shit, where can I find someone to simp for my business for free?
•
u/SunDaysOnly 20m ago
I’m going Kia EV3. What do you think? 🔋