We're Pacific NW U.S. earthquake experts ready to talk about tsunamis, earthquake early warning and more

[u/WaQuakePrepare]

EDIT: We are pretty much done! Thanks everyone for the great questions. We have some folks that could check in later if we didn’t get to your question or if you discover us later today but the answers won’t be right away. Remember no matter where you are, we invite you to drop, cover and hold on at 10:20 am Thursday. Learn more at shakeout.org

Oct. 20 is the Great ShakeOut, where millions of people across the country practice earthquake safety and drop, cover and hold on under a sturdy object. Today, we have experts in Washington state and Oregon talking about ShakeOut, earthquakes and we can even touch on Pacific Northwest volcanoes. For instance, did you now it’s possible to now get a warning on your phone before an earthquake strikes? It’s called the ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System.

We are a team with a variety of expertise particularly in the Pacific Northwest including: earthquakes (science/physics, monitoring, protective actions, preparedness), tsunamis (tsunami safety, hazards, modeling, preparedness, and recovery), structural engineering/building performance and emergency preparedness.

PROOF HERE. More proof here.

From Washington Emergency Management Division:

Brian Terbush

Elyssa Tappero

Mark Pierepiekarz, P.E., S.E.

Hollie Stark

Dante DiSabatino

From Pacific Northwest Seismic Network:

Bill Steele

Dr. Renate Hartog

Dr. Alex Hutko

From Washington Department of Natural Resources (Washington Geological Survey):

Corina Allen

Daniel Eungard

From Simpson Strong-Tie (Structural Products and Solutions including Earthquake Retrofits):

Emory Montague, S.E.

From Oregon Office of Emergency Management:

Althea Rizzo

[u/str8sin]

I haven't heard in recent years [what I think I remember hearing multiple times decades ago] that we are looking at like a 30% probability of a large shaker on the San Andreas in the next 30 years. Since I'm getting old now,

Q1: is my memory flawed? Q2: is it more like a 30% chance in the next 15 years? Q3: Or s it a greater than 30% chance in some different number of years?? Q4: what does 'large' mean in the context of my question?

Thanks

[u/WaQuakePrepare → u/str8sin]

Hi! You may want to check out the probabilities in the UCERF model. The Fact Sheet in particular has a nice summary. Q1: Memory is not flawed, but that number 30% chance of a large shaker in the next 30 years, indicates you may have been thinking about a ~M7.5+ event in the LA region on any fault. For the whole California region, the UCERF model estimates that there is almost a 100% chance that an M6.7+ will occur within the next 30 years (and it did, an M7.1 event near Ridgecrest, CA happened in 2019). M6.7 was the magnitude of the 1994 Northridge earthquake. For the San Andreas the probabilities change a bit depending on where you are along the fault. Have fun checking out that model! -Renate