r/CFB • u/bakonydraco Tulane • Boise State Bandwagon • Dec 01 '24
All AP Voter Ballots - Week 15 Analysis
Week 15
- Preseason
- Week 2
- Week 3
- Week 4
- Week 5
- Week 6
- Week 7
- Week 8
- Week 9
- Week 10
- Week 11
- Week 12
- Week 13
- Week 14
- MBB Version
- WBB Version
This is a series I've now been doing for 10 years. The post attempts to visualize all AP Poll ballots in a single image. Additionally it sorts each AP voter by similarity to the group. Notably, this is not a measure of how "good" a voter is, just how consistent they are with the group. Especially preseason, having a diversity of opinions and ranking styles is advantageous to having a true consensus poll. Polls tend to coalesce towards each other as the season goes on.
Joe Arruda was back this week, so back up to 62 ballots. The AP has been having issues with the back end of their data, but most of these have been worked out for Football. Still takes a little bit longer to get the ballots than it used to.
Trevor Hass was the most consistent voter this week. Kayla Anderson is the most consistent voter on the season, followed by Michael Katz, Blair Kerkhoff, Matt Murschel, and Trevor Hass in the top 5.
Stephen Means was the biggest outlier again this week. Jon Wilner is the biggest outlier this season, followed by Stephen Means, Koki Riley, Chris Murray, and David Jablonski.
27
u/DouglasDauntless South Carolina Gamecocks Dec 01 '24
Means finally ranked SC…at 18 And Fonseca has us multiple spots behind Clemson. Love if both of them could put out a full explanation about their ballots
12
u/IHateChipotle86 Ole Miss Rebels Dec 01 '24
There isn’t one. Also our beat writer put us at 11, and SC/Bama just behind us lol
8
u/superworriedspursfan Missouri Tigers • WashU Bears Dec 01 '24
yeah I'm kinda done complaining about rankings now but yeah SC above clemson should be pretty obvious. that one you can't mess up. sorry not sorry.
2
u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey BYU Cougars • Athens State Bears Dec 01 '24
Fonseca also has the only UM vote. Maybe those wonky computer polls that pop up in the r/cfb rankings aren't that realistic to how some voters will act
19
u/No_Advisor_4944 Dec 01 '24
Bob Ballou, I love you, but 3 is crazy work.
5
u/BurmeciaWillSurvive Boise State Broncos • Syracuse Orange Dec 01 '24
I straight-up had to do a double take!
12
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u/redpowah LSU Tigers • Paper Bag Dec 01 '24
Wildcard Wilner putting Bama in Top 10 is nuts
But I expect nothing less from him
6
u/PointBlankCoffee Texas • Red River Shootout Dec 01 '24
Bama 8 is nuts
3
u/RealestJP South Carolina Gamecocks • USF Bulls Dec 02 '24
I think the BCS computer has Bama at 8, bots love bama
3
u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey BYU Cougars • Athens State Bears Dec 02 '24
Bama 8 in front of Boise, SMU, and Indiana
12
u/esc_cynicism Boise State Broncos Dec 01 '24
Bob Ballou is delusional, In what world should Boise be ahead of Georgia, ND, and Penn State???
17
u/ixMyth Oregon Ducks • Cascade Clash Dec 01 '24
The solid wall of O's at #1 will never get old
8
u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey BYU Cougars • Athens State Bears Dec 01 '24
Wilner being the final holdout against the wall was very on brand
2
10
u/ArcaneCharge Penn State Nittany Lions • RPI Engineers Dec 01 '24
And I thought Means was crazy for Memphis at 18 last week. 13? Higher than BYU, Miami, every G5 team except Boise State, and every 3 loss P4 team?
3
15
u/NerbertHenry Texas Longhorns Dec 01 '24
Two of my favorites huffing paint per usual before putting in their votes. Means and Wilner need to go
14
u/Lefunnymaymays4lief Notre Dame • Vanderbilt Dec 01 '24
Brian Fonseca is the one guy who’s mad that there’s more ND fans in NJ than Rutgers fans.
Doesn’t seem bothered by the fact that Penn State fans outnumber them too tho
28
u/hascogrande Notre Dame Fighting Irish • Orange Bowl Dec 01 '24
Brian Fonseca: the reason ND isn't 3
19
u/AeolusA2 Michigan Wolverines Dec 01 '24
He's a real one for that Michigan pick lol
5
u/Senditduud Michigan Wolverines • Miami Hurricanes Dec 02 '24
Us and Oregon have more in common than anyone else on that list. Just sayin!
2
u/foreveracubone Michigan Wolverines • Sickos Dec 02 '24
Kind of funny how 2 different coaches at both Oregon and Michigan have beaten Ohio State in the last 4 years and James Franklin is just sitting around jerkin it.
7
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u/max_potion Penn State Nittany Lions • Big Ten Dec 01 '24
I think the loss to NIU probably has more to do with it. But cherry picking bad ballots is fun too, I see a couple who put Penn State at #8
8
u/hascogrande Notre Dame Fighting Irish • Orange Bowl Dec 01 '24 edited Dec 02 '24
Yes, there are those too. Even still, pulling his alone shifts it and Fonseca has had some wild placements
8 is absolutely low for you
…he blocked me
-1
u/max_potion Penn State Nittany Lions • Big Ten Dec 01 '24 edited Dec 02 '24
Yes, and pulling one of the ones that has Penn State at 8 also shifts it right back, and they have some wild placements.
Almost every team has outliers that pull down their ranking.
3
u/Germexicanwx Notre Dame Fighting Irish Dec 02 '24
That is what this whole comment section is for
-1
u/max_potion Penn State Nittany Lions • Big Ten Dec 02 '24
Great? He pointed out an outlier and so did I. Am I not allowed to do that? Sorry I didn't know this was only something Notre Dame fans were allowed to do.
7
5
19
u/obamaluvr Michigan • /r/CFB Contributor Dec 01 '24
So the Michigan vote is Brian Fonseca. Looks like he gave us the vote because he's still high on OSU (top 5)
11
1
u/Irishchop91 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Dec 02 '24
He also put ND at #10. Thinking it has more to do with getting attention from popular fan bases...
4
5
3
u/Jeff_Banks_Monkey BYU Cougars • Athens State Bears Dec 01 '24
Chip Towers didn't rank BYU at all last week then brings them back to 21 after beating 4-8 Houston
3
9
u/new_account_5009 Penn State Nittany Lions Dec 01 '24
I'm actually a little surprised that Texas is consensus #2 with everyone having Penn State and Notre Dame basically tied for the #3 and #4 spots. Those three schools have identical records. Strength of schedule shows Texas #32, Penn State #36, and Notre Dame #57, so Texas/PSU are practically tied, with Notre Dame a decent amount behind them. Looking at losses, Texas/PSU are practically tied with losses at home to playoff teams, with Notre Dame much further behind losing to NIU. Looking at wins, none of them have a particularly impressive resume, but all have a bunch of wins over mid-tier schools and 1 win over a fringe ranked team (or in Texas' case, a team barely missing the cutoff).
Based on the above, I would have thought Texas/Penn State would be practically tied for #2 and #3, with Notre Dame consensus #4, but the rankings don't show that. Is it because of margin of victory? Penn State had a lot more stressful close games this season, so maybe Texas gets the edge there?
7
u/GunDMc Notre Dame • Jeweled Shill… Dec 02 '24
Strength of Schedule gives too much credit for losing games against big opponents. Strength of Record is probably more appropriate in that regard. In SoR, Texas, PSU, and ND are 3, 4 and 5, respectively.
1
u/College_Sports_Fan Texas Longhorns Dec 03 '24
Outside of SEC bias, Texas was a playoff team last year and has more talent than PSU or ND in the roster. Poll inertia is real.
5
u/Bobson-_Dugnutt2 Sickos • Alabama Crimson Tide Dec 01 '24
Georgia at 2 is wild
5
1
Dec 02 '24
If you put a lot of emphasis on big wins and a hard schedule in rankings it’s not that crazy. all three teams they jump in that scenario have one combined ranked win based on this poll(Penn state beat Illinois). And Georgia has the H2H over Texas @ Texas.
2
u/DDub04 South Carolina • Palmetto Bowl Dec 01 '24
Six voters have us in as the last at large. Hopefully they’re all on the committee
3
u/quackinducks Tennessee Volunteers Dec 01 '24
Chris Carlson has y'all at 10 over Tennessee 😂
He's probably right but y'all can't prove it this year.
2
2
u/CrowIsNotMyPresident Arizona State Sun Devils • Utah Utes Dec 03 '24
Chris Carlson ranking us right behind BYU a week after we beat them is definitely a choice.
46
u/Terminatorns19 Texas Longhorns • USC Trojans Dec 01 '24 edited Dec 01 '24
Stephen Means is on a heater but I don’t think he has what it takes to be more insane than Jon Wilner over a full FBS schedule.